http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-luft2feb02,1,370578.story?
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LA Times | 2 feb
Gal Luft
Sixty-seven years ago, oil-starved Japan embarked on an aggressive expansionary
policy designed to secure its growing energy needs, which eventually led the
nation into a world war. Today, another Asian power thirsts for oil: China.
While the U.S. is absorbed in fighting the war on terror, the seeds of what
could be the next world war are quietly germinating. With 1.3 billion people
and an economy growing at a phenomenal 8% to 10% a year, China, already a net
oil importer, is growing increasingly dependent on imported oil. Last year, its
auto sales grew 70% and its oil imports were up 30% from the previous year,
making it the world's No. 2 petroleum user after the U.S. By 2030, China is
expected to have more cars than the U.S. and import as much oil as the U.S.
does today.
Dependence on oil means dependence on the Middle East, home to 70% of the
world's proven reserves. With 60% of its oil imports coming from the Middle
East, China can no longer afford to sit on the sidelines of the tumultuous
region. Its way of forming a footprint in the Middle East has been through
providing technology and components for weapons of mass destruction and their
delivery systems to unsavory regimes in places such as Iran, Iraq and Syria. A
report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a group
created by Congress to monitor U.S.-China relations, warned in 2002 that this
arms trafficking to these regimes presents an increasing threat to U.S.
security interests in the Middle East. The report concludes: A key driver in
China's relations with terrorist-sponsoring governments is its dependence on
foreign oil to fuel its economic development. This dependency is expected to
increase over the coming decade.
Optimists claim that the world oil market will be able to accommodate China and
that, instead of conflict, China's thirst could create mutual desire for
stability in the Middle East and thus actually bring Beijing closer to the U.S.
History shows the opposite: Superpowers find it difficult to coexist while
competing over scarce resources. The main bone of contention probably will
revolve around China's relations with Saudi Arabia, home to a quarter of the
world's oil. The Chinese have already supplied the Saudis with intermediate-
range ballistic missiles, and they played a major role 20 years ago in a Saudi-
financed Pakistani nuclear effort that may one day leave a nuclear weapon in
the hands of a Taliban-type regime in Riyadh or Islamabad.
Since 9/11, a deep tension in U.S.-Saudi relations has provided the Chinese
with an opportunity to win the heart of the House of Saud. The Saudis hear the
voices in the U.S. denouncing Saudi Arabia as a kernel of evil and proposing
that the U.S. seize and occupy the kingdom's oil fields. The Saudis especially
fear that if their citizens again perpetrate a terror attack in the U.S., there
would be no alternative for the U.S. but to terminate its long-standing
commitment to the monarchy - and perhaps even use military force against it.
The Saudis realize that to forestall such a scenario they can no longer rely
solely on the U.S. to defend the regime and must diversify their security
portfolio. In their search for a new patron, they might find China the most
fitting and willing candidate.
The risk of Beijing's emerging as a competitor for influence in the Middle East
and a Saudi shift of allegiance are things Washington should consider as it
defines its objectives and priorities in the 21st century. Without a
comprehensive strategy designed to prevent China from becoming an oil consumer
on a par with the U.S., a superpower collision is in the cards. The good news
is that we are still in a position to halt China's slide into total dependency.
Unlike the U.S., China's energy infrastructure is largely underdeveloped and
primarily coal-based. It has not yet invested in a multibillion-dollar oil
infrastructure. China is therefore in a better position than the U.S. to bypass
oil in favor of next-generation fuels.
The U.S. should embark on a frank dialogue with China, conveying to the Chinese
the mutual benefits of circumventing oil and offering any assistance required
to curb China's growing appetite for it. A shift from oil into other sources of
transportation energy - such as bio-fuels or coal-based fuels, hydrogen and
natural gas - could prevent future conflict and foster unprecedented Sino-
American cooperation with significant economic benefits for both countries.
The Chinese would probably leapfrog oil if they could. Dependency of any kind
is foreign to their culture. But without substantial American technological
support, China is likely to follow the path of least resistance and become a
full-fledged oil economy. Failure to address the issue with the utmost care
would undercut all of today's costly efforts by the U.S. to reform
