[R] Prediction using ARCH

2014-11-15 Thread Preetam Pal
Hi,

I have two variables, FTSE100 and CPI . Call them Y and X respectively.
I want to fit an ARCH(1) to model Y on X. I also intend to predict the
values of Y for future (given) values of X. How can I use R for such
prediction?

Another question is: is there a way I can call an R function which would
return me the optimal p for the ARCH(p)  model?

I have attached the Excel data in case it is required.

Thanks,
Preetam
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Re: [R] Prediction using ARCH

2014-11-15 Thread Patrick Burns

Preetam,

You are more likely to want garch than
arch.

These models are data-hungry, so I'm
sceptical that a model with CPI is going
to be very good.  See for instance:

www.portfolioprobe.com/2012/09/20/garch-estimation-on-impossibly-long-series/

This question is really more appropriate
for r-sig-finance (you need to subscribe
before you can post).

Pat

On 15/11/2014 10:23, Preetam Pal wrote:

Hi,

I have two variables, FTSE100 and CPI . Call them Y and X respectively.
I want to fit an ARCH(1) to model Y on X. I also intend to predict the
values of Y for future (given) values of X. How can I use R for such
prediction?

Another question is: is there a way I can call an R function which would
return me the optimal p for the ARCH(p)  model?

I have attached the Excel data in case it is required.

Thanks,
Preetam



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Patrick Burns
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http://www.burns-stat.com
(home of:
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