Paul,
The literature on the topic is extensive. You could start here:
@ARTICLE{Burns2004a,
author = {Burns, Bruce D.},
title = {Heuristics as beliefs and as behaviors: The adaptiveness
of the hot
hand},
journal = {Cognitive Psychology},
year = {2004},
volume = {48},
pages = {295--331},
number = {3},
month = may,
abstract = {Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed
reasoning by asking:
what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of
behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the
hot hand in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks
should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due
to Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) failure to find dependencies
between players' shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by
Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation
cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves
the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive
heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more
so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to
identify general conditions under which following streaks should
be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages
of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness.},
keywords = {Decision making, Streaks, Sequential information, Hot
hand, Adaptive
thinking},
url =
{http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WCR-4B9K6YH-1/2/f5e0f00147184e3079b48466d43f1cd0
}
}
and work your way back and forward.
On Feb 12, 2008, at 9:59 AM, Paul Artes wrote:
DeaRs,
i'm looking for some references on a statement as follows:
Humans are good at spotting trends and patterns in data, but they
are also
good at spotting those patterns where none really exist. This is not
verbatim but there must be some scholarly work on this. I can't
remember
where I came across it - perhaps I dreamed it up? Help, anyone?
Best wishes
Paul
_
Professor Michael Kubovy
University of Virginia
Department of Psychology
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