[R] quantile regression - estimation of CAViaR

2006-11-27 Thread jacinthe
How is it possible to estimate the conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk 
model

qantile_t(tau)=a0+a1*qantile_(t-1)(tau)+a2*abs(r_(t-1))

see http://www.faculty.ucr.edu/~taelee/paper/BLSpaper1.pdf (page 10)) of Engle 
 Manganelli in R?  The qantile_(t-1)(tau)-term causes headache.


Kind regards,

Jaci
-- 
Ein Herz für Kinder - Ihre Spende hilft! Aktion: www.deutschlandsegelt.de
Unser Dankeschön: Ihr Name auf dem Segel der 1. deutschen America's Cup-Yacht!

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[R] quantile regression and moments

2006-11-17 Thread jacinthe
Hi,

how to derive an estimate of skewness and kurtosis out of a predicted 
distribution by quantile regression?

Example:
library(quantreg)
data(airquality)
airq - airquality[143,]
f - rq(Ozone ~ ., data=airquality,tau=seq(0.01,0.99,0.01))
predict(f,newdata=airq)

Any suggestions?

Kind regards,
Jaci
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Re: [R] Quantile Regression: Measuring Goodness of Fit

2006-10-29 Thread Anupam Tyagi
Hi Martin,

Efferz, Martin efferz at finance.uni-mainz.de writes:

 
 Hi,
 
 how to measure the goodness of fit, when using the rq() function of quantreg?
I need something like an R^2 for
 quantile regression, a single number which tells me if the fit of the whole
quantile process (not only for a
 single quantile) is o.k. or not. 
 Is it possible to compare the (conditional) quantile process with the
(unconditional) empirical
 distribution function? Perhaps with a Chi^2 or Kolmogorv-Smirnov Test?
 
 Thanks for feedback.
 
 Martin

Please see:

http://www.econ.uiuc.edu/~roger/research/rq/rq.html

Anupam.

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[R] Quantile Regression: Measuring Goodness of Fit

2006-10-27 Thread Efferz, Martin
Hi,
 
how to measure the goodness of fit, when using the rq() function of quantreg? I 
need something like an R^2 for quantile regression, a single number which tells 
me if the fit of the whole quantile process (not only for a single quantile) is 
o.k. or not. 
Is it possible to compare the (conditional) quantile process with the 
(unconditional) empirical distribution function? Perhaps with a Chi^2 or 
Kolmogorv-Smirnov Test?
 
Thanks for feedback.
 
Martin

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[R] Quantile regression questions

2006-10-26 Thread Brian Gardunia
I am relatively new to R, but am intrigued by its flexibility.  I am interested 
in quantile regression and quantile estimation as regards to cotton fiber 
length distributions.  The length distribution affects spinning and weaving 
properties, so it is desirable to select for certain distribution types.  The 
AFIS fiber testing machinery outputs a vector for each sample of type c(12, 
235, 355, . . . n) with the number of fibers in n=40 1/16 inch length 
categories.  My question is what would be the best way to convert the raw 
output to quantiles and whether it would be appropriate to use quantile 
regression to look at whether location, variety, replication, etc. modify the 
length distribution.

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Re: [R] Quantile regression questions

2006-10-26 Thread roger koenker
Brian,

It is hard to say at this level of resolution of the question, but it  
would seem that you might
be able to start by considering each sample vector as as repeated  
measurement of the
fiber length -- so 12 obs in the first 1/16th bin, 235 in the next  
and so forth, all associated
with some vector of covariates representing location, variety, etc,  
then the conventional
quantile regression would serve to estimate a conditional quantile  
function for fiber length
for each possible covariate setting --- obviously this would require  
some model for the
way that the covariate effects fit together, linearity,  possible  
interactions, etc etc, and it
would also presume that it made sense to treat the vector of  
responses as independent
measurements.  Building in possible dependence involves some new  
challenges, but
there is some recent experience with inferential methods for  
microarrays that have
incorporated these effects.

I'd be happy to hear more about the data and possible models, but  
this should be
routed privately since the topic is rather too specialized for R-help.


url:www.econ.uiuc.edu/~rogerRoger Koenker
email[EMAIL PROTECTED]Department of Economics
vox: 217-333-4558University of Illinois
fax:   217-244-6678Champaign, IL 61820


On Oct 26, 2006, at 7:20 AM, Brian Gardunia wrote:

 I am relatively new to R, but am intrigued by its flexibility.  I  
 am interested in quantile regression and quantile estimation as  
 regards to cotton fiber length distributions.  The length  
 distribution affects spinning and weaving properties, so it is  
 desirable to select for certain distribution types.  The AFIS fiber  
 testing machinery outputs a vector for each sample of type c(12,  
 235, 355, . . . n) with the number of fibers in n=40 1/16 inch  
 length categories.  My question is what would be the best way to  
 convert the raw output to quantiles and whether it would be  
 appropriate to use quantile regression to look at whether location,  
 variety, replication, etc. modify the length distribution.

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[R] Quantile Regression

2006-10-25 Thread jacinthe
Hi,

how is it possible to retrieve the corresponding tau value for each observed 
data pair (x(t) y(t), t=1,...,n) when doing a quantile regression like

rq.fit - rq(y~x,tau=-1).

Thank you for your help.

Jaci
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Re: [R] Quantile Regression

2006-10-25 Thread roger koenker
  data(engel)
  attach(engel)
  rq(y~x)
Call:
rq(formula = y ~ x)

Coefficients:
(Intercept)   x
81.4822474   0.5601806

Degrees of freedom: 235 total; 233 residual
  rq(y~x)-f
  f$tau
[1] 0.5

url:www.econ.uiuc.edu/~rogerRoger Koenker
email[EMAIL PROTECTED]Department of Economics
vox: 217-333-4558University of Illinois
fax:   217-244-6678Champaign, IL 61820


On Oct 25, 2006, at 4:39 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Hi,

 how is it possible to retrieve the corresponding tau value for each  
 observed data pair (x(t) y(t), t=1,...,n) when doing a quantile  
 regression like

 rq.fit - rq(y~x,tau=-1).

 Thank you for your help.

 Jaci
 --

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[R] Quantile Regression Object

2006-07-14 Thread ricardosilva
Hi,

I load my data set and separate it as folowing:

presu - read.table(C:/_Ricardo/Paty/qtdata_f.txt, header=TRUE, sep=\t,
na.strings=NA, dec=., strip.white=TRUE)
dep-presu[,3];
exo-presu[,4:92];

Now, I want to use it using the wls and quantreg packages. How I change the
data classes for mle and rq objects?

Thanks a lot,
Ricardo

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[R] quantile regression problem

2005-12-10 Thread zuzmun

Dear List members,

I would like to ask for advise on quantile regression in R.

I am trying to perform an analysis of a relationship between species abundance 
and its habitat requirements -
the habitat requirements are, however, codes - 0,1,2,3... where 0123 
and the scale is linear - so I would be happy to treat them as continuos


The analysis of the data somehow does not work, I am trying to perform 
linear quantile regression using rq function and I cannot figure out 
whether there is a way to analyse the data using quantile regression ( I 
would really 
like to do this since the shape is an envelope) or whether it is not possible.


I tested that if I replace the categories with continuous data of the 
same range it 
works perfectly. In the form I have them ( and I cannot change it) I am getting

 errors - mainly about non-positive fis.

Could somebody please let me know whether there was a way to analyse the 
data?

The data are enclosed and the question is
Is there a relationship between abundance and absdeviation?
I am interested in the upperlimit so I wanted to analyze the upper 5%.

Thanks a lot for your help

All the best

Zuzana Munzbergova

www.natur.cuni.cz/~zuzmun
abundance   absdeviation

1   0.051643192 0

2   0.056338028 1

3   0.075117371 0

4   0.131455399 0

5   0.075117371 1

6   0.009389671 1

7   0.028169014 1

8   0.009389671 1

9   0.098591549 1

10  0.093896714 0

11  0.037558685 1

12  0.028169014 2

13  0.0657277   0

14  0.028169014 0

15  0.037558685 2

16  0.0657277   0

17  0.075117371 0

18  0.03286385  3

19  0.065420561 0

20  0.08411215  1

21  0.037383178 0

22  0.08411215  0

23  0.028037383 0

24  0.070093458 1

25  0.065420561 1

26  0.018691589 1

27  0.056074766 1

28  0.102803738 0

29  0.037383178 1

30  0.018691589 0

31  0.018691589 0

32  0.08411215  2

33  0.028037383 0

34  0.037383178 0

35  0.121495327 0

36  0.042056075 3

37  0.048076923 0

38  0.105769231 1

39  0.115384615 0

40  0.096153846 0

41  0.072115385 1

42  0.009615385 1

43  0.052884615 1

44  0.009615385 1

45  0.048076923 1

46  0.038461538 0

47  0.096153846 0

48  0.009615385 1

49  0.019230769 0

50  0.009615385 0

51  0.028846154 0

52  0.086538462 0

53  0.076923077 0

54  0.076923077 3

55  0.052631579 0

56  0.078947368 1

57  0.065789474 0

58  0.078947368 0

59  0.046052632 1

60  0.039473684 1

61  0.039473684 1

62  0.078947368 1

63  0.026315789 0

64  0.138157895 0

65  0.032894737 0

66  0.026315789 0

67  0.092105263 0

68  0.026315789 0

69  0.131578947 1

70  0.046052632 3

71  0.03626943  0

72  0.056994819 1

73  0.046632124 0

74  0.103626943 0

75  0.077720207 1

76  0.020725389 1

77  0.025906736 1

78  0.186528497 1

79  0.020725389 0

80  0.103626943 0

81  0.010362694 1

82  0.025906736 0

83  0.051813472 0

84  0.015544041 0

85  0.025906736 0

86  0.077720207 0

87  0.03626943  0

88  0.03626943  1

89  0.020725389 3

90  0.020725389 1

91  0.093457944 0

92  0.074766355 1

93  0.102803738 0

94  0.018691589 0

95  0.093457944 1

96  0.028037383 1

97  0.028037383 1

98  0.009345794 1

99  0.070093458 1

100 0.018691589 0

101 0.242990654 0

102 0.018691589 1

103 0.009345794 1

104 0.023364486 0

105 0.046728972 0

106 0.018691589 0

107 0.042056075 0

108 0.018691589 0

109 0.042056075 3

110 0.122641509 0

111 0.056603774 1

112 0.056603774 0

113 0.099056604 0

114 0.018867925 0

115 0.122641509 1

116 0.009433962 1

117 0.04245283  1

118 0.028301887 0

119 0.150943396 0

120 0.018867925 1

121 0.037735849 0

122 0.047169811 0

123 0.028301887 0

124 0.08490566  0

125 0.009433962 0

126 0.066037736 1

127 0.12987013  0

128 0.060606061 1

129 0.112554113 0

130 0.138528139 1

131 0.043290043 1

132 0.034632035 1

133 0.025974026 1

134 0.017316017 1

135 0.017316017 0

136 0.12987013  0

137 0.034632035 0

138 0.025974026 0

139 0.043290043 0

140

Re: [R] quantile regression problem

2005-12-10 Thread roger koenker
Since almost all (95%) of the observations are concentrated at x=0  
and x=1,
any fitting you do is strongly influenced by what would be obtained
by simply fitting quantiles at these two points and interpolating, and
extrapolating according to your favored model.  I did the following:

require(quantreg)
formula - log(y) ~ x

plot(x,y)
z - 1:30/10
for(tau in 10:19/20){
 f - rq(formula,tau = tau)
 lines(z,exp(cbind(1,z) %*% f$coef))
 }


url:www.econ.uiuc.edu/~rogerRoger Koenker
email   [EMAIL PROTECTED]   Department of Economics
vox:217-333-4558University of Illinois
fax:217-244-6678Champaign, IL 61820


On Dec 10, 2005, at 11:30 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Dear List members,

 I would like to ask for advise on quantile regression in R.

 I am trying to perform an analysis of a relationship between  
 species abundance and its habitat requirements -
 the habitat requirements are, however, codes - 0,1,2,3... where  
 0123 and the scale is linear - so I would be happy to treat them  
 as continuos

 The analysis of the data somehow does not work, I am trying to  
 perform linear quantile regression using rq function and I cannot  
 figure out whether there is a way to analyse the data using  
 quantile regression ( I would really like to do this since the  
 shape is an envelope) or whether it is not possible.

 I tested that if I replace the categories with continuous data of  
 the same range it works perfectly. In the form I have them ( and I  
 cannot change it) I am getting
  errors - mainly about non-positive fis.

 Could somebody please let me know whether there was a way to  
 analyse the data?
 The data are enclosed and the question is
 Is there a relationship between abundance and absdeviation?
 I am interested in the upperlimit so I wanted to analyze the upper 5%.

 Thanks a lot for your help

 All the best

 Zuzana Munzbergova

 www.natur.cuni.cz/~zuzmun
 GSS1a.txt
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Re: [R] quantile regression problem

2005-12-10 Thread Ted Harding
On 10-Dec-05 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 Dear List members,
 
 I would like to ask for advise on quantile regression in R.
 
 I am trying to perform an analysis of a relationship between
 species abundance and its habitat requirements -
 the habitat requirements are, however, codes - 0,1,2,3... where 0123
 and the scale is linear - so I would be happy to treat them as
 continuos

As well as Roger Koenker's comments, you may also wish to consider
the following.

(By the way, despite what you say above, you have codes at
values 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2. 3 -- is there anything special about
the 0.5 and 1.5, or are they on the same footing as 0, 1, 2, 3?
Also, I am curious as to why habitat requirement is named
absdeviation in the data file. What does habitat requirement
mean?).

 The analysis of the data somehow does not work, I am trying to
 perform linear quantile regression using rq function and I cannot
 figure out whether there is a way to analyse the data using quantile
 regression (I would really like to do this since the shape is an
 envelope) or whether it is not possible.

As Roger noted, the distribution of data is very variable over
the values of absdeviation:

absdeviation:   0  0.51  1.52  3 
Number of data:   673 15493  3 19 20 
Total data: 1223

Therefore you chiefly have information about the cases 0 and 1.

I have loked at the data the opposite way round from you: For each
value of absdeviation (H for habitat in the following),
consider the values of abundance (A).

For H=0 and H=1, the values of A are quite well approximated by
a negative exponential distribution, thought the fit is better
for H=1 than for H=0 -- in a more careful examination, I would try
to emulate a for the continuous variable A a distribution inspired
by the logarithmic distribution p(n) = (t^n)/(n*log(1-t)), n=0,1,2...
which is a classic distribution for the probability that a species
will be represented by n individuals in a sample of a large number
of species whose different abundances are variable
(Fisher, Corbett and Williams, and much later work).

The mean A for H=0 is m0 = 0.09389265 (n0=673), and
the mean A for H=1 is m1 = 0.08407791 (n1=493).

with respective atandard deviations

  s0 = 0.1262238
  s1 = 0.08952975

on the basis of which

  (m0-m1)/(sqrt((s0^2)/n0 + (s1^2)/n1)) = 1.553156

which is not particularly large. While the histograms

  hist(A[H==0],breaks=0.02*(0:50),freq=FALSE)

and

  hist(A[H==1],breaks=0.02*(0:50),freq=FALSE)

do somewhat indicate a tendency for higher values of A to
occur when H=0 than when H=1 there are only a few of these.

So on a first look, I am induced to conclude that there is
little evidence in the two dominant data groups (H=0 and H=1)
to indicate that these two groups differ. I doubt that the
information for the H=0.5, H=1.5, H=2 anf H=3 would have
more than a slight effect on this (though I have not looked
on detail).

The corresponding means, however, are

  m0.5 = 0.1273273(n = 15)
  m1.5 = 0.03003003   (n =  3)
  m2   = 0.02908183   (n = 19)
  m3   = 0.03830066   (n = 20)

which at first sight does suggest that, while m0.5 is similar
to m0 and m1 above, m1.5 and m2 and m3 are distinctly smaller.
However, for m1.5 this is based on a very small sample, and
in any case the distribution of the raw values of A is so skew
that the larger values of A occurring for H=0 and H=1 are unlikely
to occur in such small samples.

Therefore, preliminary conclusion: I cannot see strong evidence
of a relationship between absdeviation and abundance.

Hoping this is useful,
Best wishes,
Ted.

 I tested that if I replace the categories with continuous
 data of the same range it works perfectly. In the form I have
 them (and I cannot change it) I am getting errors - mainly
 about non-positive fis.
 
 Could somebody please let me know whether there was a way to
 analyse the  data?
 The data are enclosed and the question is
 Is there a relationship between abundance and absdeviation?
 I am interested in the upperlimit so I wanted to analyze the upper 5%.
 
 Thanks a lot for your help
 
 All the best
 
 Zuzana Munzbergova
 
 www.natur.cuni.cz/~zuzmun


E-Mail: (Ted Harding) [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Fax-to-email: +44 (0)870 094 0861
Date: 10-Dec-05   Time: 23:10:15
-- XFMail --

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[R] Quantile Regression, S-Function Rreg

2005-07-18 Thread Stefan Hoderlein
I have the following problem: I would like to do a
nonparametric quatile regression. Thus far I have used
the quantreg package and done a local quadratic, but
it does not seem to work well.

Alternatively, I have tried with an older S version I
have the function rreg, and used 

rreg(datax,datay,method=function(u) 
   {(abs(u)+(2*alpha-1)*u)},iter=100)

which gave me pretty acceptable results. What I would
like to do now is to have a similar command in R, but
with the functions

rlm  and   lqs

I do not seem to be able to get somewhere. Can anybody
help? 

I found in the archive under 

Message-ID:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

a reply from Brian Ripley on a similar question, but
was not able to download the experimental file from
his website...

Thanks

Stefan

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Re: [R] Quantile Regression, S-Function Rreg

2005-07-18 Thread Stefan Hoderlein
Dear Brian,

thanks for your mail. For other reasons I need a local
polynomial. The nonparametric regression code is very
scetchy, but I have used it as base anyway.

Best

Stefan

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[R] Quantile Regression in R

2004-06-29 Thread Ali Hirsa
I recently learn about Quantile Regression in R.
I am trying to study two time series (attached) by Quantile Regression in R.
I wrote the following code and do not know how to interpret the lines.
   
What kind of information can I get from them? Correlation for quantiles, 
conditional probabilties (i.e. P(X in Quantile i | Y in Quantile i)) , and etc.
Many thanks in advance for any help.

Best,
Ali

library(quantreg)
#help.start()

Data - read.table(RESvsMOVE2.dat)
#
x - Data[,2]
y - Data[,1]

par(mfrow=c(2,2))

qqnorm(x,main=MOVE Norm Q-Q Plot, xlab=Normal Qunatiles,ylab = MOVE Quantiles)
qqline(x)

qqnorm(y,main=Residuals Norm Q-Q Plot, xlab=Normal Qunatiles,ylab = Residuals 
Quantiles)
qqline(y)

plot(x,y,xlab=MOVE,ylab=Residuals,cex=.5)

xx - seq(min(x),max(x),.5)

# Just a linear regression
g - coef(lm(y~x))
yy - (g[1]+g[2]*(xx))
lines(xx,yy,col=yellow)

taus - c(.05,.1,.25,.5,.75,.9,.95)

for(tau in taus){
f - coef(rq(y~x,tau=tau,method=pfn))
yy - (f[1]+f[2]*(xx))
if (tau ==.05){
 lines(xx,yy,col=red)
}
if (tau ==.95){
 lines(xx,yy,col=green)
}
if (tau != .05  tau != .95){
 lines(xx,yy,col=blue)
}
}




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Re: [R] Quantile Regression in R

2004-06-29 Thread roger koenker
The short answer to your question is that  quantile regression
estimates are estimating linear conditional quantile functions,
just like lm() is used to estimate conditional mean functions.
A longer answer would inevitably involve unpleasant suggestions
that you should follow the posting guide:
	a.)  send questions about packages to the maintainer, not R-help
	b.)  not attach datasets in modes that are stripped by R-help
	c.)  make a token effort to read the documentation and related 
literature


url:www.econ.uiuc.edu/~rogerRoger Koenker
email   [EMAIL PROTECTED]   Department of Economics
vox:217-333-4558University of Illinois
fax:217-244-6678Champaign, IL 61820
On Jun 29, 2004, at 10:26 AM, Ali Hirsa wrote:
I recently learn about Quantile Regression in R.
I am trying to study two time series (attached) by Quantile Regression 
in R.
I wrote the following code and do not know how to interpret the lines.

What kind of information can I get from them? Correlation for 
quantiles,
conditional probabilties (i.e. P(X in Quantile i | Y in Quantile i)) , 
and etc.
Many thanks in advance for any help.

Best,
Ali
library(quantreg)
#help.start()
Data - read.table(RESvsMOVE2.dat)
#
x - Data[,2]
y - Data[,1]
par(mfrow=c(2,2))
qqnorm(x,main=MOVE Norm Q-Q Plot, xlab=Normal Qunatiles,ylab = 
MOVE Quantiles)
qqline(x)

qqnorm(y,main=Residuals Norm Q-Q Plot, xlab=Normal Qunatiles,ylab 
= Residuals Quantiles)
qqline(y)

plot(x,y,xlab=MOVE,ylab=Residuals,cex=.5)
xx - seq(min(x),max(x),.5)
# Just a linear regression
g - coef(lm(y~x))
yy - (g[1]+g[2]*(xx))
lines(xx,yy,col=yellow)
taus - c(.05,.1,.25,.5,.75,.9,.95)
for(tau in taus){
f - coef(rq(y~x,tau=tau,method=pfn))
yy - (f[1]+f[2]*(xx))
if (tau ==.05){
 lines(xx,yy,col=red)
}
if (tau ==.95){
 lines(xx,yy,col=green)
}
if (tau != .05  tau != .95){
 lines(xx,yy,col=blue)
}
}


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[R] quantile regression

2004-03-12 Thread Christoph Scherber
Dear colleagues,

How can I do quantile regression with R?

Best regards
Chris.
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RE: [R] quantile regression

2004-03-12 Thread Liaw, Andy
Please read the footer of the message, and follow the link.  Besides, you
don't need people googling for you, do you?

Andy

 From: Christoph Scherber
 
 Dear colleagues,
 
 How can I do quantile regression with R?
 
 Best regards
 Chris.
 
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Re: [R] quantile regression

2004-03-12 Thread Peter Dalgaard
Christoph Scherber [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

 Dear colleagues,
 
 How can I do quantile regression with R?

Package quantreg springs to mind...

-- 
   O__   Peter Dalgaard Blegdamsvej 3  
  c/ /'_ --- Dept. of Biostatistics 2200 Cph. N   
 (*) \(*) -- University of Copenhagen   Denmark  Ph: (+45) 35327918
~~ - ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) FAX: (+45) 35327907

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Re: [R] quantile regression

2004-03-12 Thread Christoph Scherber
OK, Thank you all very much for the help!

Best regards
Chris.


Christoph Scherber wrote:

Dear colleagues,

How can I do quantile regression with R?

Best regards
Chris.
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[R] Quantile Regression Packages

2003-09-01 Thread Roger Koenker

I'd like to mention that there is a new quantile regression package
nprq on CRAN for additive nonparametric quantile regression estimation.
Models are structured similarly to the gss package of Gu and the mgcv
package of Wood.  Formulae like

y ~ qss(z1) + qss(z2) +  X

are interpreted as a partially linear model in the covariates of X,
with nonparametric components defined as functions of z1 and z2.
Rather than estimating conditional mean functions, conditional
quantile functions are estimated using penalty methods.

When z1 is univariate fitting is based on the total variation
penalty methods described in Koenker, Ng and Portnoy (Biometrika, 1994).
When z2 is bivariate fitting is based on the  total variation penalty
(triogram) methods described in Koenker and Mizera (2003), available at
http://www.econ.uiuc.edu/~roger/research/goniolatry/gon.html and
forthcoming in JRSS(B).

There are options to constrain the qss components to be monotone and/or
convex/concave for univariate components, and to be convex/concave
for bivariate components.  Fitting is done by new sparse implementations
of the dense interior point (Frisch-Newton) algorithms already available
in the package quantreg.

The new package nprq thus supplements the existing packages
quantreg and nlrq that can be used for linear and nonlinear
parametric quantile regression fitting respectively.  In particular,
nprq provides general fitting functions for quantile regression
problems with sparse design matrices paralleling the functionality of
least squares function slm() in the SparseM package.

There has also been some recent updating of the quantreg package, which
now includes some functionality for resampling based inference methods.

The package nprq is joint work with Pin Ng of Northern Arizona University.

Comments and suggestions, as always,  would be most welcome.

url:www.econ.uiuc.edu/~roger/my.htmlRoger Koenker
email   [EMAIL PROTECTED]   Department of Economics
vox:217-333-4558University of Illinois
fax:217-244-6678Champaign, IL 61820

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