Re: A plea for keeping things precise (and providing citations whenever possible)
The decrease in crime is related to the prior increase in abortions - fewer potential criminals being born. source: Ian Ayres, _Super Crunchers_ (2008), p. 13, citing to Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, _Freakonomics. _Susan Freiman_ _ Volokh, Eugene wrote: Folks: Just a quick plug from the list custodian for maximum accuracy. If you want to cite a statistic, please check it and cite the source (plus see whether the big picture is more complex than you describe). For instance, a quick visit to the Bureau of Justice Statistics site (http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StatebyState.cfm) reveals that the crime rate as reported to the police rose from 160.9/100,000 in 1960 to 473.5/100,000 in 2006, a 200% increase (or a tripling) -- bad enough, but not 560%. (I realize that not all crimes are reported to the police, and the reporting rate changes over time, but I don't think the NCVS data goes back to the 1960; if you have better statistics, please let me know.) What's more, the current violent crime rate is pretty much at the 1974 level, and there was in fact a sharp decline from 1992 to 2003 -- not, I take it, because the nation or the educational system has somehow gotten less "atheistic." Now I'm perfectly happy to acknowledge that various forms of social pathology have increased since 1960 (while some have declined); and it's possible, though in my view unproven, that this has something to do with the decline of religion in public education. But I'd like to keep discussions on the list as accurate as possible, and a 560% increase is not the same as a 200% increase or even a 300% level; and a 1960-now comparison doesn't make such sense if the current numbers are at the 1974 level. So please let's check any statistics we mention, and provide citations when possible. Many thanks, Eugene Volokh *From:* [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] *On Behalf Of *Ed Darrell *Sent:* Tuesday, July 22, 2008 1:52 PM *To:* [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Law & Religion issues for Law Academics *Subject:* RE: Bible class rules set for Texas schools - Faith- msnbc.com Yet leading cultural indicators show that since 1960 in America, violent crime has increased by 560 percent, illegitimate birth rates have increased more than 400 percent, teen suicide is up over 200 percent, the divorce rate has more than doubled, and the percentage of families headed by a single parent has more than tripled. It seems to me, thanks to courts and judges that enforce state atheism and Ed's social experiment upon our families and children, by taking Bibles and prayer OUT of public schools, that... And that's with increased Bible instruction that violates the law. Ed Brayton is right to worry -- looks like more of the same, maybe at an increased rate. Why not study what it really says, study the real literature components (as with every AP English course), the real effects on history (as with every AP U.S. History and AP World History course)? Tougher academics can help -- Sunday school in the public schools is, by Chaplian Klingenschmitt's tally, a grotesque failure, doing the opposite of what it is intended. More seriously, pay very careful attention to Mark Chancey's comments. He's a very distinguished, and faithful, Bible scholar. What the Texas State School Board is working to implement is contrary to most Christian faiths, let alone the Constitution. Incompetence, weak academics, bad religion -- it's a bad brew. When the state board ignores the state's leading Bible scholars, the state's teachers and teacher organizations, and even the sponsor of the Bill, there's evil afoot. And when we try to increase the AP offerings, which feature increased study of both Christianity and the Bible, these same people complain. Something's rotten in Texas. There's prayer in the schools, but sadly, that's all the students have. No wonder crime, illicit sex are up, and academic achievement is down. The kids are following the State School Board's examples, ignoring all authority, making their own, unanchored moral decisions, ignoring the best information, etc. By the way, I don't think the divorce rate has doubled. I think it's dropping, in fact. Anybody got a current statistic? Ed Darrell Working in Dallas to get the curriculum planned out for 2008-2009, no thanks to the State School Board */Gordon James Klingenschmitt <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>/* wrote: Ed writes about teaching about the Bible (as an optional elective) in public schools, "the result is going to be very ugly and very expensive." Yet leading cultural indicators show that since 1960 in America
RE: A plea for keeping things precise (and providing citations whenever possible)
OK, my source was a little old, Bill Bennett, 1994 Index of Leading Cultural
Indicators, reprinted in Wall Street Journal article here:
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/augustine/arch/usadecline.html
I think his typographical error (560%) was actually 460% rise in violent crime,
according to the tabular charts he provides at the bottom.
Thank God after Bennett exposed this problem, America woke up, and voted for
the 1994 Republican revolution in Congress, which reversed the aggressive
liberal assault on morality, (unless you believe Bill Clinton led that revival
of morality), and reduced national crime steadily (back to nearly 1974 levels)
until losing power in 2006 (when, ironically, the Democrats took over and crime
started to rise again).
Post hoc: Children stop living according to Biblical values.
Ergo propter hoc: We teach children to stop living according to Biblical
values.
(But there's no connection here.really.)
In Jesus,
Chaplain K.
"Saperstein, David (RAC)" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:v\:*
{behavior:url(#default#VML);} o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} w\:*
{behavior:url(#default#VML);} .shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
st1\:*{behavior:url(#default#ieooui) } One could argue that
this is a classic example of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, if of
course, one were inclined to make such arguments.
-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Volokh, Eugene
Sent: Tuesday, July 22, 2008 5:09 PM
To: Law & Religion issues for Law Academics
Subject: A plea for keeping things precise (and providing citations whenever
possible)
Folks: Just a quick plug from the list custodian for maximum accuracy.
If you want to cite a statistic, please check it and cite the source (plus see
whether the big picture is more complex than you describe). For instance, a
quick visit to the Bureau of Justice Statistics site
(http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StatebyState.cfm)
reveals that the crime rate as reported to the police rose from 160.9/100,000
in 1960 to 473.5/100,000 in 2006, a 200% increase (or a tripling) -- bad
enough, but not 560%. (I realize that not all crimes are reported to the
police, and the reporting rate changes over time, but I don't think the NCVS
data goes back to the 1960; if you have better statistics, please let me know.)
What's more, the current violent crime rate is pretty much at the 1974
level, and there was in fact a sharp decline from 1992 to 2003 -- not, I take
it, because the nation or the educational system has somehow gotten less
"atheistic." Now I'm perfectly happy to acknowledge that various forms of
social pathology have increased since 1960 (while some have declined); and it's
possible, though in my view unproven, that this has something to do with the
decline of religion in public education.
But I'd like to keep discussions on the list as accurate as possible, and
a 560% increase is not the same as a 200% increase or even a 300% level; and a
1960-now comparison doesn't make such sense if the current numbers are at the
1974 level. So please let's check any statistics we mention, and provide
citations when possible. Many thanks,
Eugene Volokh
-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Ed Darrell
Sent: Tuesday, July 22, 2008 1:52 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Law & Religion issues for Law Academics
Subject: RE: Bible class rules set for Texas schools - Faith- msnbc.com
Yet leading cultural indicators show that since 1960 in America, violent
crime has increased by 560 percent, illegitimate birth rates have increased
more than 400 percent, teen suicide is up over 200 percent, the divorce rate
has more than doubled, and the percentage of families headed by a single parent
has more than tripled.
It seems to me, thanks to courts and judges that enforce state atheism and
Ed's social experiment upon our families and children, by taking Bibles and
prayer OUT of public schools, that...
And that's with increased Bible instruction that violates the law. Ed Brayton
is right to worry -- looks like more of the same, maybe at an increased rate.
Why not study what it really says, study the real literature components (as
with every AP English course), the real effects on history (as with every AP
U.S. History and AP World History course)? Tougher academics can help --
Sunday school in the public schools is, by Chaplian Klingenschmitt's tally, a
grotesque failure, doing the opposite of what it is intended.
More seriously, pay very careful attention to Mark Chancey's comments. He's a
very distinguished, and faithful, Bible scholar. What the Texas State School
Board is working to implement is contrary to most Christian faiths, let alone
the Constitution. Inc
RE: A plea for keeping things precise (and providing citations whenever possible)
One could argue that this is a classic example of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, if of course, one were inclined to make such arguments. From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Volokh, Eugene Sent: Tuesday, July 22, 2008 5:09 PM To: Law & Religion issues for Law Academics Subject: A plea for keeping things precise (and providing citations whenever possible) Folks: Just a quick plug from the list custodian for maximum accuracy. If you want to cite a statistic, please check it and cite the source (plus see whether the big picture is more complex than you describe). For instance, a quick visit to the Bureau of Justice Statistics site (http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StatebyState.cfm) reveals that the crime rate as reported to the police rose from 160.9/100,000 in 1960 to 473.5/100,000 in 2006, a 200% increase (or a tripling) -- bad enough, but not 560%. (I realize that not all crimes are reported to the police, and the reporting rate changes over time, but I don't think the NCVS data goes back to the 1960; if you have better statistics, please let me know.) What's more, the current violent crime rate is pretty much at the 1974 level, and there was in fact a sharp decline from 1992 to 2003 -- not, I take it, because the nation or the educational system has somehow gotten less "atheistic." Now I'm perfectly happy to acknowledge that various forms of social pathology have increased since 1960 (while some have declined); and it's possible, though in my view unproven, that this has something to do with the decline of religion in public education. But I'd like to keep discussions on the list as accurate as possible, and a 560% increase is not the same as a 200% increase or even a 300% level; and a 1960-now comparison doesn't make such sense if the current numbers are at the 1974 level. So please let's check any statistics we mention, and provide citations when possible. Many thanks, Eugene Volokh From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Ed Darrell Sent: Tuesday, July 22, 2008 1:52 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Law & Religion issues for Law Academics Subject: RE: Bible class rules set for Texas schools - Faith- msnbc.com Yet leading cultural indicators show that since 1960 in America, violent crime has increased by 560 percent, illegitimate birth rates have increased more than 400 percent, teen suicide is up over 200 percent, the divorce rate has more than doubled, and the percentage of families headed by a single parent has more than tripled. It seems to me, thanks to courts and judges that enforce state atheism and Ed's social experiment upon our families and children, by taking Bibles and prayer OUT of public schools, that... And that's with increased Bible instruction that violates the law. Ed Brayton is right to worry -- looks like more of the same, maybe at an increased rate. Why not study what it really says, study the real literature components (as with every AP English course), the real effects on history (as with every AP U.S. History and AP World History course)? Tougher academics can help -- Sunday school in the public schools is, by Chaplian Klingenschmitt's tally, a grotesque failure, doing the opposite of what it is intended. More seriously, pay very careful attention to Mark Chancey's comments. He's a very distinguished, and faithful, Bible scholar. What the Texas State School Board is working to implement is contrary to most Christian faiths, let alone the Constitution. Incompetence, weak academics, bad religion -- it's a bad brew. When the state board ignores the state's leading Bible scholars, the state's teachers and teacher organizations, and even the sponsor of the Bill, there's evil afoot. And when we try to increase the AP offerings, which feature increased study of both Christianity and the Bible, these same people complain. Something's rotten in Texas. There's prayer in the schools, but sadly, that's all the students have. No wonder crime, illicit sex are up, and academic achievement is down. The kids are following the State School Board's examples, ignoring all authority, making their own, unanchored moral decisions, ignoring the best information, etc. By the way, I don't think the divorce rate has doubled. I think it's dropping, in fact. Anybody got a current statistic? Ed Darrell Working in Dallas to get the curriculum planned out for 2008-2009, no thanks to the State School Board Gordon James Klingenschmitt <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: Ed writes about teaching about the Bible (as an optional elective) in public schools, "the result is going to be very ugly and very expensive." Yet leading cultural indicators show that since 1960 in America, violent crime has increased by 560 percent, illegitimate birth rates have increased more than 400 percent, teen sui
