Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED

[Keith Addison]

 no 
>longer exporting cheap corn to mexico. I t may encourage Mexican 
>farmers to grow more corn.
>
>Irv
>* 
>***
>-Original Message-
> >From: Keith Addison <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> >Sent: Jan 20, 2007 9:18 AM
> >To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org
> >Subject: Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS 
>VASTLY UNDERSTATED
> >
> >Take a bow, Zeke, bravo - too many people who should know better have
> >been getting that wrong, including Lester Brown.
> >
> >>Now, using corn for fueling cars does sound like a lousy idea, but
> >>not because it might increase corn prices. Considering that corn now
> >>sells for only about two thirds of what it costs to grow it, I don't
> >>see this is such a bad thing.  Maybe farmers around the world could
> >>support themselves again?  And perhaps if economics had any effect
> >>on farms they'd be tempted to shift to better crops, instead of
> >>monocropping corn as a subsidized chemical plant input.  The corn
> >>economy in the US is so messed up and bizzare, I don't know that I
> >>can support using corn for anything anymore, let alone ethanol.
> >
> >This is from a discussion at the Bioenergy list of the CS Monitor
> >report on Brown's article (most of the mainstream media covered it):
> >
> >>>Perhaps there is a Silver Lining to the Cloud... The shortage or
> >>>absence of heavily subsidized export corn could now permit local
> >>>producers to grow corn for their local markets.
> >>
> >>That is exactly correct. The only really progressive aspect of the
> >>corn ethanol policy is that it takes US corn out of world export
> >>commodity markets. Small farmers in every developing country in the
> >>world greatly benefit when the US gets out of the export farm
> >>commodity business.
> >
> >Plenty of good information on that at Global Issues, eg, and in the
> >list archives.
> >http://www.globalissues.org/
> >Global Issues That Affect Everyone
> >
> >But Lester Brown talks of the "world food economy" and says food
> >prices everywhere will be affected as the world corn price rises.
> >"The competition for grain between the world's 800 million motorists
> >who want to maintain their mobility and its 2 billion poorest people
> >who are simply trying to survive is emerging as an epic issue." He
> >also cites trading prices on the corn and wheat futures markets, and
> >warns: "It is not only food prices that are at stake, but trends in
> >the Nikkei Index and the Dow Jones Industrials as well." Arghh! LOL!
> >
> >Unfortunate trends in the Nikkei Index and the Dow Jones Industrials
> >probably won't hurt the 2 billion poorest people any more than this
> >helped them:
> >http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/01/07/c 
>nftse07.xml
> >FTSE100 companies see profits double [in four years]
> >
> >Whatever happens to Dow Industrials they'll still have to live on
> >less than $2 a day (it's 3 billion, actually).
> >
> >David Pimentel reaches some of his tortured conclusions about ethanol
> >via similar misconceptions that the world's poor and hungry depend
> >for their survival on US grain production. See:
> >http://journeytoforever.org/ethanol_energy.html#argu
> >Pimentel's arguments
> >
> >Here are some facts about this so-called food that the ever-guilty
> >rich folks are planning to guzzle in their SUVs and so on while
> >billions starve. First a couple more myths:
> >
> >>"We have the ability in the United States to grow the grain to feed
> >>the world" -- Allen Anderson, Chairman of the MARC 2000 coalition of
> >>agribusiness and transportation interests, testimony before the
> >>Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee, April 30, 1998
> >>
> >>"Our mission is to feed and nourish a growing world population" --
> >>Archer Daniels Midland, multinational grain trading company,
> >>November 22, 1999
> >>
> >>"Helping farmers grow a wide variety of goods to feed a growing
> >>world" -- Cargill, Inc, multinational grain trading company,
> >>November 22, 1999
> >
> >However...
> >
> >>- For every one ton of US corn exported in 1996 to one of the 25
> >>countries with the world's most serious malnutrition problems
> >>(Category 5 countries, with at least 35 percen

Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED

[Irwin Levinson]

Whew
price of torteas in mexico has just gone up now that the US is no longer 
exporting cheap corn to mexico. I t may encourage Mexican farmers to grow more 
corn.

Irv

-Original Message-
>From: Keith Addison <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>Sent: Jan 20, 2007 9:18 AM
>To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org
>Subject: Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY 
>UNDERSTATED
>
>Take a bow, Zeke, bravo - too many people who should know better have 
>been getting that wrong, including Lester Brown.
>
>>Now, using corn for fueling cars does sound like a lousy idea, but 
>>not because it might increase corn prices. Considering that corn now 
>>sells for only about two thirds of what it costs to grow it, I don't 
>>see this is such a bad thing.  Maybe farmers around the world could 
>>support themselves again?  And perhaps if economics had any effect 
>>on farms they'd be tempted to shift to better crops, instead of 
>>monocropping corn as a subsidized chemical plant input.  The corn 
>>economy in the US is so messed up and bizzare, I don't know that I 
>>can support using corn for anything anymore, let alone ethanol.
>
>This is from a discussion at the Bioenergy list of the CS Monitor 
>report on Brown's article (most of the mainstream media covered it):
>
>>>Perhaps there is a Silver Lining to the Cloud... The shortage or 
>>>absence of heavily subsidized export corn could now permit local 
>>>producers to grow corn for their local markets.
>>
>>That is exactly correct. The only really progressive aspect of the 
>>corn ethanol policy is that it takes US corn out of world export 
>>commodity markets. Small farmers in every developing country in the 
>>world greatly benefit when the US gets out of the export farm 
>>commodity business.
>
>Plenty of good information on that at Global Issues, eg, and in the 
>list archives.
>http://www.globalissues.org/
>Global Issues That Affect Everyone
>
>But Lester Brown talks of the "world food economy" and says food 
>prices everywhere will be affected as the world corn price rises. 
>"The competition for grain between the world's 800 million motorists 
>who want to maintain their mobility and its 2 billion poorest people 
>who are simply trying to survive is emerging as an epic issue." He 
>also cites trading prices on the corn and wheat futures markets, and 
>warns: "It is not only food prices that are at stake, but trends in 
>the Nikkei Index and the Dow Jones Industrials as well." Arghh! LOL!
>
>Unfortunate trends in the Nikkei Index and the Dow Jones Industrials 
>probably won't hurt the 2 billion poorest people any more than this 
>helped them:
>http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/01/07/cnftse07.xml
>FTSE100 companies see profits double [in four years]
>
>Whatever happens to Dow Industrials they'll still have to live on 
>less than $2 a day (it's 3 billion, actually).
>
>David Pimentel reaches some of his tortured conclusions about ethanol 
>via similar misconceptions that the world's poor and hungry depend 
>for their survival on US grain production. See:
>http://journeytoforever.org/ethanol_energy.html#argu
>Pimentel's arguments
>
>Here are some facts about this so-called food that the ever-guilty 
>rich folks are planning to guzzle in their SUVs and so on while 
>billions starve. First a couple more myths:
>
>>"We have the ability in the United States to grow the grain to feed 
>>the world" -- Allen Anderson, Chairman of the MARC 2000 coalition of 
>>agribusiness and transportation interests, testimony before the 
>>Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee, April 30, 1998
>>
>>"Our mission is to feed and nourish a growing world population" -- 
>>Archer Daniels Midland, multinational grain trading company, 
>>November 22, 1999
>>
>>"Helping farmers grow a wide variety of goods to feed a growing 
>>world" -- Cargill, Inc, multinational grain trading company, 
>>November 22, 1999
>
>However...
>
>>- For every one ton of US corn exported in 1996 to one of the 25 
>>countries with the world's most serious malnutrition problems 
>>(Category 5 countries, with at least 35 percent of the population 
>>undernourished), 260 tons were exported to a wealthy Organization 
>>for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) country.
>>
>>- 20 percent of the total US corn crop is exported; two-thirds of 
>>these exports go directly to the 28 indus

Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED

[Keith Addison]

Take a bow, Zeke, bravo - too many people who should know better have 
been getting that wrong, including Lester Brown.

>Now, using corn for fueling cars does sound like a lousy idea, but 
>not because it might increase corn prices. Considering that corn now 
>sells for only about two thirds of what it costs to grow it, I don't 
>see this is such a bad thing.  Maybe farmers around the world could 
>support themselves again?  And perhaps if economics had any effect 
>on farms they'd be tempted to shift to better crops, instead of 
>monocropping corn as a subsidized chemical plant input.  The corn 
>economy in the US is so messed up and bizzare, I don't know that I 
>can support using corn for anything anymore, let alone ethanol.

This is from a discussion at the Bioenergy list of the CS Monitor 
report on Brown's article (most of the mainstream media covered it):

>>Perhaps there is a Silver Lining to the Cloud... The shortage or 
>>absence of heavily subsidized export corn could now permit local 
>>producers to grow corn for their local markets.
>
>That is exactly correct. The only really progressive aspect of the 
>corn ethanol policy is that it takes US corn out of world export 
>commodity markets. Small farmers in every developing country in the 
>world greatly benefit when the US gets out of the export farm 
>commodity business.

Plenty of good information on that at Global Issues, eg, and in the 
list archives.
http://www.globalissues.org/
Global Issues That Affect Everyone

But Lester Brown talks of the "world food economy" and says food 
prices everywhere will be affected as the world corn price rises. 
"The competition for grain between the world's 800 million motorists 
who want to maintain their mobility and its 2 billion poorest people 
who are simply trying to survive is emerging as an epic issue." He 
also cites trading prices on the corn and wheat futures markets, and 
warns: "It is not only food prices that are at stake, but trends in 
the Nikkei Index and the Dow Jones Industrials as well." Arghh! LOL!

Unfortunate trends in the Nikkei Index and the Dow Jones Industrials 
probably won't hurt the 2 billion poorest people any more than this 
helped them:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/01/07/cnftse07.xml
FTSE100 companies see profits double [in four years]

Whatever happens to Dow Industrials they'll still have to live on 
less than $2 a day (it's 3 billion, actually).

David Pimentel reaches some of his tortured conclusions about ethanol 
via similar misconceptions that the world's poor and hungry depend 
for their survival on US grain production. See:
http://journeytoforever.org/ethanol_energy.html#argu
Pimentel's arguments

Here are some facts about this so-called food that the ever-guilty 
rich folks are planning to guzzle in their SUVs and so on while 
billions starve. First a couple more myths:

>"We have the ability in the United States to grow the grain to feed 
>the world" -- Allen Anderson, Chairman of the MARC 2000 coalition of 
>agribusiness and transportation interests, testimony before the 
>Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee, April 30, 1998
>
>"Our mission is to feed and nourish a growing world population" -- 
>Archer Daniels Midland, multinational grain trading company, 
>November 22, 1999
>
>"Helping farmers grow a wide variety of goods to feed a growing 
>world" -- Cargill, Inc, multinational grain trading company, 
>November 22, 1999

However...

>- For every one ton of US corn exported in 1996 to one of the 25 
>countries with the world's most serious malnutrition problems 
>(Category 5 countries, with at least 35 percent of the population 
>undernourished), 260 tons were exported to a wealthy Organization 
>for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) country.
>
>- 20 percent of the total US corn crop is exported; two-thirds of 
>these exports go directly to the 28 industrial OECD countries, where 
>it is mostly used for feeding animals.
>
>- 76 percent of the corn used in the US is used for animal feed.
>
>- Less than three-tenths of one percent of total US corn exports 
>went to the poor Category 5 countries in 1996.
>
>- Less than three percent of total US corn exports in 1996 went to 
>the 24 Category 4 countries (where undernourishment affects at least 
>20 percent of the population).
>
>- More US corn goes to make alcoholic beverages in the US than is 
>exported to feed the hungry in the world's 25 most undernourished 
>countries combined.

See "Feeding the World?"
http://www.iatp.org/iatp/publications.cfm?accountID=258&refID=36106
(pdf)

-- From "Biofuels - Food or Fuel?"
http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel_food.html#grainexports

"Ethanol under fire [by] David Pimentel et al - Actually it's Big 
Ethanol and Big Corn that are under fire by Big Oil, though Big Corn 
and Big Agriculture are a major client of Big Oil. We tend to think 
they might all deserve each other. Small is beautiful, especially 
with food and bio

Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS

[DHAJOGLO]

 He knows about the process but stated the enegy inputs are higher then the 
traditional mashing/fermenting method for large scale production.  I am not at 
all familar with how the cellulose methods work.  I would posit its more 
efficient to grind up the plant, stalk, cob, corn and all and press it into 
fuel pellets (at least for home heat).
  
 On Friday, January 19, 2007 12:28 PM, M&K DuPree wrote:

Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2007 12:28:01 -0600
From: M&K DuPree
To: 
Subject: Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS

 
Hi Dave...you say, "However, the plant operator did long to use the direct 
conversion method  of celluose to ethanol were it not for the even higher input 
costs."  I'm wondering if the operator has the ability to  convert cellulose to 
ethanol, but it's too expensive OR does the operator need  to acquire the 
ability to do so, but he thinks the start up costs in doing so  would be too 
expensive?  Do you know?  Thanks.  Mike  DuPree


- Original Message -
From:DHAJOGLO   
To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org   
Sent: Friday, January 19, 2007 11:45    AM   
Subject: Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMANDFOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS   

   
 Its interesting you say that.  The Ethanol plant in WY islocated next door 
to a sugar beet processing plant.  They pointed out thecost of sugar beets 
is to high compared to the corn (though I'm not sure ifthey considered the 
energy inputs to converting the corn to sugar as part ofthose costs).  They 
mentioned they tried the molases from the sugarfactory but stated it was 
not as efficient as the corn.  I tend to thinkthey were'nt really 
interested in using another feed stock, even partially, intheir process.  
However, the plant operator did long to use the directconversion method of 
celluose to ethanol were it not for the even higher inputcosts.

Now, the point you make rasies the question, are we more hungryfor sugar or 
energy?  I'm not suggesting we actually debate that but itseems we like to 
over indulge in both!

-dave

On Friday, January 19, 2007 9:57 AM, Joe Street  wrote:

Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2007 10:57:29 -0500
From:  Joe Street
To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org
Subject: Re:      [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS

I  think sugar beets are a better bet for use in ethanol production than
  corn.

Joe

Zeke Yewdall wrote:
 Now, using corn for fueling cars does sound like a lousy idea,but 
not because it might increase corn prices. Considering that corn now
sells for only about two thirds of what it costs to grow it, I don't see
this is such a bad thing.  Maybe farmers around the world couldsupport 
themselves again?  And perhaps if economics had any effect onfarms 
they'd be tempted to shift to better crops, instead of monocroppingcorn 
as a subsidized chemical plant input.  The corn economy in theUS is so 
messed up and bizzare, I don't know that I can support using cornfor 
anything anymore, let alone ethanol. 



   
On 1/18/07, FrantzDESPREZ <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote: 

 
 


 

  

January  4, 2007 - 1 

  

Copyright © 2007 Earth Policy Institute   

  

DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY  UNDERSTATED World May 
Be Facing Highest Grain Prices in  History 

  

Lester R. Brown  

  

Investment in fuel ethanol distilleries has  soared since the late-2005 
oil price hikes, but data collection in this  fast-changing sector has 
fallen behind. Because of inadequate data  collection on the number of 
new plants under construction, the quantity  of grain that will be 
needed for fuel ethanol distilleries has been  vastly understated. 
Farmers, feeders, food processors, ethanol  investors, and 
grain-importing countries are basing decisions on  incomplete data. 


  

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)  projects that distilleries 
will require only 60 million tons of corn  from the 2008 harvest. But 
here at the Earth Policy Institute (EPI), we  estimate that 
distilleries will need 139 million tons—more  than twice as much. If 
the EPI estimate is at all close to the mark, the  emerging competition 
between cars and people for grain will likely drive  world grain prices 
to levels never seen before. The key questions are:  How high will 
grain prices rise? When will the crunch come? And what  will be the 
worldwide effect of rising food prices? 

  

One reason for the low USDA projection is that  it was released in 
February 2006, well before the effect of surging oil

Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED

[frantz]

Joe Street a écrit :
> I think sugar beets are a better bet for use in ethanol production 
> than corn.
>
> Joe
and it's the choice made for industrial production of ethanol in France 
and Belgium.
Monoculture that needs as well fertilizers and pesticides, but less 
water or GMO than corn.
And sugar beets is an old and widespread production in northen France 
and Benelux since the Napoleonic wars (to replace sugarcane from french 
caribbeans)

frantz

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Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS

[M&K DuPree]

Hi Dave...you say, "However, the plant operator did long to use the direct 
conversion method of celluose to ethanol were it not for the even higher input 
costs."  I'm wondering if the operator has the ability to convert cellulose to 
ethanol, but it's too expensive OR does the operator need to acquire the 
ability to do so, but he thinks the start up costs in doing so would be too 
expensive?  Do you know?  Thanks.  Mike DuPree


  - Original Message - 
  From: DHAJOGLO 
  To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org 
  Sent: Friday, January 19, 2007 11:45 AM
  Subject: Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS


   Its interesting you say that.  The Ethanol plant in WY is located next door 
to a sugar beet processing plant.  They pointed out the cost of sugar beets is 
to high compared to the corn (though I'm not sure if they considered the energy 
inputs to converting the corn to sugar as part of those costs).  They mentioned 
they tried the molases from the sugar factory but stated it was not as 
efficient as the corn.  I tend to think they were'nt really interested in using 
another feed stock, even partially, in their process.  However, the plant 
operator did long to use the direct conversion method of celluose to ethanol 
were it not for the even higher input costs.

  Now, the point you make rasies the question, are we more hungry for sugar or 
energy?  I'm not suggesting we actually debate that but it seems we like to 
over indulge in both!

  -dave

On Friday, January 19, 2007 9:57 AM, Joe Street wrote:

Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2007 10:57:29 -0500
From: Joe Street
To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org
    Subject: Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS


I think sugar beets are a better bet for use in ethanol production than 
corn.

Joe

Zeke Yewdall wrote:

  Now, using corn for fueling cars does sound like a lousy idea, but not 
because it might increase corn prices. Considering that corn now sells for only 
about two thirds of what it costs to grow it, I don't see this is such a bad 
thing.  Maybe farmers around the world could support themselves again?  And 
perhaps if economics had any effect on farms they'd be tempted to shift to 
better crops, instead of monocropping corn as a subsidized chemical plant 
input.  The corn economy in the US is so messed up and bizzare, I don't know 
that I can support using corn for anything anymore, let alone ethanol. 




  On 1/18/07, Frantz DESPREZ <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: 





January 4, 2007 - 1



Copyright © 2007 Earth Policy Institute 



DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED World May 
Be Facing Highest Grain Prices in History



Lester R. Brown 



Investment in fuel ethanol distilleries has soared since the late-2005 
oil price hikes, but data collection in this fast-changing sector has fallen 
behind. Because of inadequate data collection on the number of new plants under 
construction, the quantity of grain that will be needed for fuel ethanol 
distilleries has been vastly understated. Farmers, feeders, food processors, 
ethanol investors, and grain-importing countries are basing decisions on 
incomplete data.



The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that distilleries 
will require only 60 million tons of corn from the 2008 harvest. But here at 
the Earth Policy Institute (EPI), we estimate that distilleries will need 139 
million tons-more than twice as much. If the EPI estimate is at all close to 
the mark, the emerging competition between cars and people for grain will 
likely drive world grain prices to levels never seen before. The key questions 
are: How high will grain prices rise? When will the crunch come? And what will 
be the worldwide effect of rising food prices?



One reason for the low USDA projection is that it was released in 
February 2006, well before the effect of surging oil prices on investment in 
fuel ethanol distilleries was fully apparent. Beyond this, USDA relies heavily 
on the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), a trade group, for data on ethanol 
distilleries under construction, but the RFA data have lagged behind movement 
in the industry.



We drew on four firms that collect and publish data on U.S. ethanol 
distilleries under construction. RFA is the one most frequently cited. The 
other three firms are Europe-based F.O. Licht, the publisher of World Ethanol 
and Biofuels Report; BBI International, which publishes Ethanol Producer 
Magazine; and the American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE), publisher of Ethanol 
Today.



Unfortunately, the lists of plants under construction maintained by 
RFA, BBI, and ACE are not complete. Each contains some plants that are not on 
the other lists. Drawing on these three lists and on biweekly reports from F.O. 
Licht, EPI has compiled a more complete master list. 

Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS

[DHAJOGLO]

 Its interesting you say that.  The Ethanol plant in WY is located next door to 
a sugar beet processing plant.  They pointed out the cost of sugar beets is to 
high compared to the corn (though I'm not sure if they considered the energy 
inputs to converting the corn to sugar as part of those costs).  They mentioned 
they tried the molases from the sugar factory but stated it was not as 
efficient as the corn.  I tend to think they were'nt really interested in using 
another feed stock, even partially, in their process.  However, the plant 
operator did long to use the direct conversion method of celluose to ethanol 
were it not for the even higher input costs.

Now, the point you make rasies the question, are we more hungry for sugar or 
energy?  I'm not suggesting we actually debate that but it seems we like to 
over indulge in both!

-dave
  
 On Friday, January 19, 2007  9:57 AM, Joe Street wrote:

Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2007 10:57:29 -0500
From: Joe Street
To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org
Subject: Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS

 I think sugar beets are a better bet for use in ethanol production than corn.
 
 Joe
 
 Zeke Yewdall wrote:
 Now, using corn for fueling cars does sound like a lousy idea, but not because 
it might increase corn prices. Considering that corn now sells for only about 
two thirds of what it costs to grow it, I don't see this is such a bad thing.  
Maybe farmers around the world could support themselves again?  And perhaps if 
economics had any effect on farms they'd be tempted to shift to better crops, 
instead of monocropping corn as a subsidized chemical plant input.  The corn 
economy in the US is so messed up and bizzare, I don't know that I can support 
using corn for anything anymore, let alone ethanol.   
   
   
   
   
On 1/18/07, Frantz DESPREZ <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
 
 


  

  

January 4, 2007 - 1 

  

Copyright © 2007 Earth Policy Institute  

  

DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED World May Be Facing 
Highest Grain Prices in History 

  

Lester R. Brown  

  

Investment in fuel ethanol distilleries has soared since the late-2005 oil 
price hikes, but data collection in this fast-changing sector has fallen 
behind. Because of inadequate data collection on the number of new plants under 
construction, the quantity of grain that will be needed for fuel ethanol 
distilleries has been vastly understated. Farmers, feeders, food processors, 
ethanol investors, and grain-importing countries are basing decisions on 
incomplete data. 

  

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that distilleries will 
require only 60 million tons of corn from the 2008 harvest. But here at the 
Earth Policy Institute (EPI), we estimate that distilleries will need 139 
million tons—more than twice as much. If the EPI estimate is at all close to 
the mark, the emerging competition between cars and people for grain will 
likely drive world grain prices to levels never seen before. The key questions 
are: How high will grain prices rise? When will the crunch come? And what will 
be the worldwide effect of rising food prices? 

  

One reason for the low USDA projection is that it was released in February 
2006, well before the effect of surging oil prices on investment in fuel 
ethanol distilleries was fully apparent. Beyond this, USDA relies heavily on 
the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), a trade group, for data on ethanol 
distilleries under construction, but the RFA data have lagged behind movement 
in the industry. 

  

We drew on four firms that collect and publish data on U.S. ethanol 
distilleries under construction. RFA is the one most frequently cited. The 
other three firms are Europe-based F.O. Licht, the publisher of World Ethanol 
and Biofuels Report; BBI International, which publishes Ethanol Producer 
Magazine; and the American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE), publisher of Ethanol 
Today. 

  

Unfortunately, the lists of plants under construction maintained by RFA, BBI, 
and ACE are not complete. Each contains some plants that are not on the other 
lists. Drawing on these three lists and on biweekly reports from F.O. Licht, 
EPI has compiled a more complete master list. For example, while we show 79 
plants under construction, RFA lists 62 plants. (We welcome any information 
that will improve this list, which can be viewed at  
www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2007/Update63_data.htm.) 

  

According to the EPI compilation, the 116 plants in production on December 31, 
2006, were using 53 million tons of grain per year, while the 79 plants under 
construction—mostly larger facilities—will use 51 million tons of grain when 
they come online. Expansions of 11 existing plants will use another 8 million 
tons of grain (1 ton of corn = 39.4 bushels = 110 gallons of ethanol). 

   

Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED

[Joe Street]

I think sugar beets are a better bet for use in ethanol production than 
corn.


Joe

Zeke Yewdall wrote:

Now, using corn for fueling cars does sound like a lousy idea, but not 
because it might increase corn prices. Considering that corn now sells 
for only about two thirds of what it costs to grow it, I don't see 
this is such a bad thing.  Maybe farmers around the world could 
support themselves again?  And perhaps if economics had any effect on 
farms they'd be tempted to shift to better crops, instead of 
monocropping corn as a subsidized chemical plant input.  The corn 
economy in the US is so messed up and bizzare, I don't know that I can 
support using corn for anything anymore, let alone ethanol.




On 1/18/07, *Frantz DESPREZ* <[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
> wrote:



 


January 4, 2007 - 1

 


Copyright © 2007 Earth Policy Institute

 


DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED World
May Be Facing Highest Grain Prices in History

 


Lester R. Brown

 


Investment in fuel ethanol distilleries has soared since the
late-2005 oil price hikes, but data collection in this
fast-changing sector has fallen behind. Because of inadequate data
collection on the number of new plants under construction, the
quantity of grain that will be needed for fuel ethanol
distilleries has been vastly understated. Farmers, feeders, food
processors, ethanol investors, and grain-importing countries are
basing decisions on incomplete data.

 


The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that
distilleries will require only 60 million tons of corn from the
2008 harvest. But here at the Earth Policy Institute (EPI), we
estimate that distilleries will need 139 million tons—more than
twice as much. If the EPI estimate is at all close to the mark,
the emerging competition between cars and people for grain will
likely drive world grain prices to levels never seen before. The
key questions are: How high will grain prices rise? When will the
crunch come? And what will be the worldwide effect of rising food
prices?

 


One reason for the low USDA projection is that it was released in
February 2006, well before the effect of surging oil prices on
investment in fuel ethanol distilleries was fully apparent. Beyond
this, USDA relies heavily on the Renewable Fuels Association
(RFA), a trade group, for data on ethanol distilleries under
construction, but the RFA data have lagged behind movement in the
industry.

 


We drew on four firms that collect and publish data on U.S.
ethanol distilleries under construction. RFA is the one most
frequently cited. The other three firms are Europe-based F.O.
Licht, the publisher of World Ethanol and Biofuels Report; BBI
International, which publishes Ethanol Producer Magazine; and the
American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE), publisher of Ethanol Today.

 


Unfortunately, the lists of plants under construction maintained
by RFA, BBI, and ACE are not complete. Each contains some plants
that are not on the other lists. Drawing on these three lists and
on biweekly reports from F.O. Licht, EPI has compiled a more
complete master list. For example, while we show 79 plants under
construction, RFA lists 62 plants. (We welcome any information
that will improve this list, which can be viewed at
www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2007/Update63_data.htm
.)

 


According to the EPI compilation, the 116 plants in production on
December 31, 2006, were using 53 million tons of grain per year,
while the 79 plants under construction—mostly larger
facilities—will use 51 million tons of grain when they come
online. Expansions of 11 existing plants will use another 8
million tons of grain (1 ton of corn = 39.4 bushels = 110 gallons
of ethanol).

 


In addition, easily 200 ethanol plants were in the planning stage
at the end of 2006. If these translate into construction starts
between January 1 and June 30, 2007, at the same rate that plants
did during the final six months of 2006, then an additional 3
billion gallons of capacity requiring 27 million more tons of
grain will likely come online by September 1, 2008, the start of
the 2008 harvest year. This raises the corn needed for
distilleries to 139 million tons, half the 2008 harvest projected
by USDA. This would yield nearly 15 billion gallons of ethanol,
satisfying 6 percent of U.S. auto fuel needs. (And this estimate
does not include any plants started after June 30, 2007, that
would be finished in time to draw on the 2008 harvest.)

 


This unprecedented diversion of the world's leading grain crop to
the production of fuel will affect food prices everywhere. As

Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED

[Jason& Katie]

GAAAHH!
MORE idiocy!!! CORN IS NOT A GOOD FUEL why cant they figure this out? 
everyone here knows a dozen or more different sources of liquid fuel, so why 
cant anyone else come up with one?No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG Free Edition.
Version: 7.5.431 / Virus Database: 268.17.0/639 - Release Date: 1/18/2007 6:47 
PM
___
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Re: [Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED

[Zeke Yewdall]

Now, using corn for fueling cars does sound like a lousy idea, but not
because it might increase corn prices. Considering that corn now sells for
only about two thirds of what it costs to grow it, I don't see this is such
a bad thing.  Maybe farmers around the world could support themselves
again?  And perhaps if economics had any effect on farms they'd be tempted
to shift to better crops, instead of monocropping corn as a subsidized
chemical plant input.  The corn economy in the US is so messed up and
bizzare, I don't know that I can support using corn for anything anymore,
let alone ethanol.



On 1/18/07, Frantz DESPREZ <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:





January 4, 2007 - 1



Copyright (c) 2007 Earth Policy Institute



DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED World May Be
Facing Highest Grain Prices in History



Lester R. Brown



Investment in fuel ethanol distilleries has soared since the late-2005 oil
price hikes, but data collection in this fast-changing sector has fallen
behind. Because of inadequate data collection on the number of new plants
under construction, the quantity of grain that will be needed for fuel
ethanol distilleries has been vastly understated. Farmers, feeders, food
processors, ethanol investors, and grain-importing countries are basing
decisions on incomplete data.



The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that distilleries will
require only 60 million tons of corn from the 2008 harvest. But here at the
Earth Policy Institute (EPI), we estimate that distilleries will need 139
million tons—more than twice as much. If the EPI estimate is at all close
to the mark, the emerging competition between cars and people for grain will
likely drive world grain prices to levels never seen before. The key
questions are: How high will grain prices rise? When will the crunch come?
And what will be the worldwide effect of rising food prices?



One reason for the low USDA projection is that it was released in February
2006, well before the effect of surging oil prices on investment in fuel
ethanol distilleries was fully apparent. Beyond this, USDA relies heavily on
the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), a trade group, for data on ethanol
distilleries under construction, but the RFA data have lagged behind
movement in the industry.



We drew on four firms that collect and publish data on U.S. ethanol
distilleries under construction. RFA is the one most frequently cited. The
other three firms are Europe-based F.O. Licht, the publisher of World
Ethanol and Biofuels Report; BBI International, which publishes Ethanol
Producer Magazine; and the American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE), publisher
of Ethanol Today.



Unfortunately, the lists of plants under construction maintained by RFA,
BBI, and ACE are not complete. Each contains some plants that are not on the
other lists. Drawing on these three lists and on biweekly reports from F.O.
Licht, EPI has compiled a more complete master list. For example, while we
show 79 plants under construction, RFA lists 62 plants. (We welcome any
information that will improve this list, which can be viewed at
www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2007/Update63_data.htm.)



According to the EPI compilation, the 116 plants in production on December
31, 2006, were using 53 million tons of grain per year, while the 79 plants
under construction—mostly larger facilities—will use 51 million tons of
grain when they come online. Expansions of 11 existing plants will use
another 8 million tons of grain (1 ton of corn = 39.4 bushels = 110
gallons of ethanol).



In addition, easily 200 ethanol plants were in the planning stage at the
end of 2006. If these translate into construction starts between January 1
and June 30, 2007, at the same rate that plants did during the final six
months of 2006, then an additional 3 billion gallons of capacity requiring
27 million more tons of grain will likely come online by September 1, 2008,
the start of the 2008 harvest year. This raises the corn needed for
distilleries to 139 million tons, half the 2008 harvest projected by USDA.
This would yield nearly 15 billion gallons of ethanol, satisfying 6 percent
of U.S. auto fuel needs. (And this estimate does not include any plants
started after June 30, 2007, that would be finished in time to draw on the
2008 harvest.)



This unprecedented diversion of the world's leading grain crop to the
production of fuel will affect food prices everywhere. As the world corn
price rises, so too do those of wheat and rice, both because of consumer
substitution among grains and because the crops compete for land. Both corn
and wheat futures were already trading at 10-year highs in late 2006.



The U.S. corn crop, accounting for 40 percent of the global harvest and
supplying 70 percent of the world's corn exports, looms large in the world
food economy. Annual U.S. corn exports of some 55 million tons account for
nearly one fourth of world grain exports. The corn harvest of Iowa alone,
which

[Biofuel] DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED

[Frantz DESPREZ]

 
January 4, 2007 -
1
 
Copyright © 2007
Earth
Policy Institute 
 
DISTILLERY
DEMAND
FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS VASTLY UNDERSTATED World May Be Facing Highest
Grain
Prices in History
 
Lester
R. Brown 
 
Investment
in
fuel ethanol distilleries has soared since the late-2005 oil price
hikes, but
data collection in this fast-changing sector has fallen behind. Because
of
inadequate data collection on the number of new plants under
construction, the
quantity of grain that will be needed for fuel ethanol distilleries has
been
vastly understated. Farmers, feeders, food processors, ethanol
investors, and
grain-importing countries are basing decisions on incomplete data.
 
The
U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that distilleries will
require only
60 million tons of corn from the 2008 harvest. But here at the Earth
Policy
Institute (EPI), we estimate that distilleries will need 139 million
tons—more
than twice as much. If the EPI estimate is at all close to
the mark, the emerging competition between cars and people for grain
will
likely drive world grain prices to levels never seen before. The key
questions
are: How high will grain prices rise? When will the crunch come? And
what will
be the worldwide effect of rising food prices?
 
One
reason for
the low USDA projection is that it was released in February 2006, well
before
the effect of surging oil prices on investment in fuel ethanol
distilleries was
fully apparent. Beyond this, USDA relies heavily on the Renewable Fuels
Association (RFA), a trade group, for data on ethanol distilleries
under
construction, but the RFA data have lagged behind movement in the
industry.
 
We
drew on four
firms that collect and publish data on U.S. ethanol distilleries
under
construction. RFA is the one most frequently cited. The other three
firms are
Europe-based F.O. Licht, the publisher of World Ethanol and Biofuels
Report;
BBI International, which publishes Ethanol Producer Magazine; and the
American
Coalition for Ethanol (ACE), publisher of Ethanol Today.
 
Unfortunately,
the lists of plants under construction maintained by RFA, BBI, and ACE
are not
complete. Each contains some plants that are not on the other lists.
Drawing on
these three lists and on biweekly reports from F.O. Licht, EPI has
compiled a
more complete master list. For example, while we show 79 plants under
construction, RFA lists 62 plants. (We welcome any information that
will
improve this list, which can be viewed at www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2007/Update63_data.htm.)
 
According
to the
EPI compilation, the 116 plants in production on December 31, 2006,
were using
53 million tons of grain per year, while the 79 plants under
construction—mostly
larger facilities—will
use 51 million tons of grain when they come online. Expansions
of 11 existing plants will use another 8 million tons of grain (1 ton
of corn =
39.4 bushels = 110 gallons of ethanol).
 
In
addition,
easily 200 ethanol plants were in the planning stage at the end of
2006. If
these translate into construction starts between January 1 and June 30,
2007,
at the same rate that plants did during the final six months of 2006,
then an
additional 3 billion gallons of capacity requiring 27 million more tons
of
grain will likely come online by September 1, 2008, the start of the
2008
harvest year. This raises the corn needed for distilleries to 139
million tons,
half the 2008 harvest projected by USDA. This would yield nearly 15
billion
gallons of ethanol, satisfying 6 percent of U.S.
auto fuel needs. (And this
estimate does not include any plants started after June 30, 2007, that
would be
finished in time to draw on the 2008 harvest.)
 
This
unprecedented diversion of the world’s leading grain crop to the
production of fuel will affect food prices everywhere. As the world
corn price
rises, so too do those of wheat and rice, both because of consumer
substitution
among grains and because the crops compete for land. Both corn and
wheat
futures were already trading at 10-year highs in late 2006.
 
The U.S.
corn crop,
accounting for 40 percent of the global harvest and supplying 70
percent of the
world’s corn exports, looms large in the world food economy. Annual U.S.
corn
exports of some 55 million tons account for nearly one fourth of world
grain
exports. The corn harvest of Iowa
alone, which
edges out Illinois as the leading
producer,
exceeds the entire grain harvest of Canada. Substantially
reducing this
export flow would send shock waves throughout the world economy.
 
Robert
Wisner, Iowa State University
economist, reports that Iowa’s
demand for corn from processing
plants that were on line, expanding, under construction, or being
planned as of
late 2006 totaled 2.7 billion bushels. Yet even in a good year the
state
harvests only 2.2 billion bushels. As distilleries compete with feeders
for
grain, Iowa
could become a corn importer.
 
With
corn
supplies tightening fast, rising prices will affect not only products
made directly
from corn, such