Re: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'
Hi All, I don´t want to sound like Chicken Little and disturb anyone going about their normal lives but if this proves to be true it´s going to have a HUGE IMPACT. Those of you who live near the coast should consider moving to higher ground if you can afford to. If you can´t afford to thenbuy a boat. If I´m reading this right and I think I am, this makes that Pentagon sponsored worst case study last year... well not the worst case. This is now the worst case. Those of you getting ready to invest in solar may want to invest in wind instead. I would anticipate a lot more cloudy and rainy days during wet seasons and longer droughts. I´m telling my architect on Wednesday, to put in a cistern and rain spouting to collect all the water I can. This sounds bad, real bad. Any confirmation by other scientists and engineers on this list would be appreciated. Tom Irwin From: Keith Addison [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]To: biofuel@sustainablelists.orgSent: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 15:25:21 -0300Subject: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0811-03.htmPublished on Thursday, August 11, 2005 by the Guardian/UKWarming Hits 'Tipping Point'Siberia feels the heat: A frozen peat bog the size of France and Germany combined contains billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas, and for the first time since the ice age, it is melting.By Ian SampleA vast expanse of western Siberia is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climate scientists warn today.If we don't take action very soon, we could unleash runaway global warming that will be beyond our control and it will lead to social, economic and environmental devastation worldwide.Tony Juniper, director of Friends of the EarthResearchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometers - the size of France and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age.The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since first identifying "tipping points" - delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global temperatures.The discovery was made by Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in western Siberia and Judith Marquand at Oxford University and is reported in New Scientist today.The researchers found that what was until recently a barren expanse of frozen peat is turning into a broken landscape of mud and lakes, some more than a kilometer across.Dr Kirpotin told the magazine the situation was an "ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming". He added that the thaw had probably begun in the past three or four years.Climate scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, and warned that predictions of future global temperatures would have to be revised upwards."When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply," said David Viner, a senior scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia."This is a big deal because you can't put the permafrost back once it's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will ramp up temperatures even more than our emissions are doing."In its last major report in 2001, the intergovernmental panel on climate change predicted a rise in global temperatures of 1.4C-5.8C between 1990 and 2100, but the estimate only takes account of global warming driven by known greenhouse gas emissions."These positive feedbacks with landmasses weren't known about then. They had no idea how much they would add to global warming," said Dr Viner.Western Siberia is heating up faster than anywhere else in the world, having experienced a rise of some 3C in the past 40 years. Scientists are particularly concerned about the permafrost, because as it thaws, it reveals bare ground which warms up more quickly than ice and snow, and so accelerates the rate at which the permafrost thaws.Siberia's peat bogs have been producing methane since they formed at the end of the last ice age, but most of the gas had been trapped in the permafrost. According to Larry Smith, a hydrologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, the west Siberian peat bog could hold some 70bn tons of methane, a quarter of all of the methane stored in the ground around the world.The permafrost is likely to take many decades at least to thaw, so the methane locked within it will not be released into the atmosphere in one burst,
Re: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'
Hi all again, Who said that President Bush was religious? He cannot be, because then he would belive in judgement day and the way things are going, he will have to answer some very difficult questions. Hakan At 10:18 16/08/2005, you wrote: Hi All, I don´t want to sound like Chicken Little and disturb anyone going about their normal lives but if this proves to be true it´s going to have a HUGE IMPACT. Those of you who live near the coast should consider moving to higher ground if you can afford to. If you can´t afford to then buy a boat. If I´m reading this right and I think I am, this makes that Pentagon sponsored worst case study last year... well not the worst case. This is now the worst case. Those of you getting ready to invest in solar may want to invest in wind instead. I would anticipate a lot more cloudy and rainy days during wet seasons and longer droughts. I´m telling my architect on Wednesday, to put in a cistern and rain spouting to collect all the water I can. This sounds bad, real bad. Any confirmation by other scientists and engineers on this list would be appreciated. Tom Irwin -- From: Keith Addison [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org Sent: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 15:25:21 -0300 Subject: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0811-03.htmhttp://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0811-03.htm Published on Thursday, August 11, 2005 by the Guardian/UK Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' Siberia feels the heat: A frozen peat bog the size of France and Germany combined contains billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas, and for the first time since the ice age, it is melting. By Ian Sample A vast expanse of western Siberia is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climate scientists warn today. If we don't take action very soon, we could unleash runaway global warming that will be beyond our control and it will lead to social, economic and environmental devastation worldwide. Tony Juniper, director of Friends of the Earth Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometers - the size of France and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since first identifying tipping points - delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global temperatures. The discovery was made by Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in western Siberia and Judith Marquand at Oxford University and is reported in New Scientist today. The researchers found that what was until recently a barren expanse of frozen peat is turning into a broken landscape of mud and lakes, some more than a kilometer across. Dr Kirpotin told the magazine the situation was an ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming. He added that the thaw had probably begun in the past three or four years. Climate scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, and warned that predictions of future global temperatures would have to be revised upwards. When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply, said David Viner, a senior scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. This is a big deal because you can't put the permafrost back once it's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will ramp up temperatures even more than our emissions are doing. In its last major report in 2001, the intergovernmental panel on climate change predicted a rise in global temperatures of 1.4C-5.8C between 1990 and 2100, but the estimate only takes account of global warming driven by known greenhouse gas emissions. These positive feedbacks with landmasses weren't known about then. They had no idea how much they would add to global warming, said Dr Viner. Western Siberia is heating up faster than anywhere else in the world, having experienced a rise of some 3C in the past 40 years. Scientists are particularly concerned about the permafrost, because as it thaws, it reveals bare ground which warms up more quickly than ice and snow, and so accelerates the rate at which the permafrost thaws. Siberia's peat bogs have been producing methane since they formed at the end of the last ice age, but most of the gas had been trapped in the permafrost. According
Re: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'
Hi Again, Careful Hakan, we´re talking fundamental Baptist of the born again variety. I come from Methodist stock. A fine Presbiterian minister in literature once characterised us asBaptists who can read. Bush might be one of those pushing for judgement day since he and his flock have already been saved while the rest of us are going to hell. Of course, my idea of hell is having the most powerfully armed country in the world run by fanactical Baptists.As I´m living in hell already there is little for me to fear. Tom Irwin From: Hakan Falk [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.orgSent: Tue, 16 Aug 2005 05:36:50 -0300Subject: Re: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'Hi all again,Who said that President Bush was religious? He cannot be, because then he would belive in judgement day and the way things are going, he will have to answer some very difficult questions.HakanAt 10:18 16/08/2005, you wrote:Hi All,I don´t want to sound like Chicken Little and disturb anyone going about their normal lives but if this proves to be true it´s going to have a HUGE IMPACT. Those of you who live near the coast should consider moving to higher ground if you can afford to. If you can´t afford to then buy a boat. If I´m reading this right and I think I am, this makes that Pentagon sponsored worst case study last year... well not the worst case. This is now the worst case. Those of you getting ready to invest in solar may want to invest in wind instead. I would anticipate a lot more cloudy and rainy days during wet seasons and longer droughts. I´m telling my architect on Wednesday, to put in a cistern and rain spouting to collect all the water I can. This sounds bad, real bad. Any confirmation by other scientists and engineers on this list would be appreciated.Tom Irwin--From: Keith Addison [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]To: biofuel@sustainablelists.orgSent: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 15:25:21 -0300Subject: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0811-03.htmPublished on Thursday, August 11, 2005 by the Guardian/UKWarming Hits 'Tipping Point'Siberia feels the heat: A frozen peat bog the size of France andGermany combined contains billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas, andfor the first time since the ice age, it is melting.By Ian SampleA vast expanse of western Siberia is undergoing an unprecedented thawthat could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climatescientists warn today.If we don't take action very soon, we could unleash runaway globalwarming that will be beyond our control and it will lead to social,economic and environmental devastation worldwide.Tony Juniper, director of Friends of the EarthResearchers who have recently returned from the region found that anarea of permafrost spanning a million square kilometers - the size ofFrance and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first timesince it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age.The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of westernSiberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fearthat as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, agreenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into theatmosphere.It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since firstidentifying "tipping points" - delicate thresholds where a slightrise in the Earth's temperature can cause a dramatic change in theenvironment that itself triggers a far greater increase in globaltemperatures.The discovery was made by Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State Universityin western Siberia and Judith Marquand at Oxford University and isreported in New Scientist today.The researchers found that what was until recently a barren expanseof frozen peat is turning into a broken landscape of mud and lakes,some more than a kilometer across.Dr Kirpotin told the magazine the situation was an "ecologicallandslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connectedto climatic warming". He added that the thaw had probably begun inthe past three or four years.Climate scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, andwarned that predictions of future global temperatures would have tobe revised upwards."When you start messing around with these natural systems, you canend up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes youcan apply," said David Viner, a senior scientist at the ClimaticResearch Unit at the University of East Anglia."This is a big deal because you can't put the permafrost back onceit's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will ramp uptemperatures even more than our emissions are doing."In its last major report in 2001, the intergovernmental panel onclimate change predicted a rise in global temperatures of 1.4C-5.8Cbetween 1990 and 2100, but the estimate only takes account of globalwarming driven by known greenhouse gas emissions."These positive feedbacks with landmasses weren't known about then.They had no idea how much they would add
Re: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'
Tom, I see your point and it explains a lot. Hakan At 11:38 16/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Again, Careful Hakan, we´re talking fundamental Baptist of the born again variety. I come from Methodist stock. A fine Presbiterian minister in literature once characterised us as Baptists who can read. Bush might be one of those pushing for judgement day since he and his flock have already been saved while the rest of us are going to hell. Of course, my idea of hell is having the most powerfully armed country in the world run by fanactical Baptists. As I´m living in hell already there is little for me to fear. Tom Irwin -- From: Hakan Falk [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.org Sent: Tue, 16 Aug 2005 05:36:50 -0300 Subject: Re: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' Hi all again, Who said that President Bush was religious? He cannot be, because then he would belive in judgement day and the way things are going, he will have to answer some very difficult questions. Hakan At 10:18 16/08/2005, you wrote: Hi All, I don´t want to sound like Chicken Little and disturb anyone going about their normal lives but if this proves to be true it´s going to have a HUGE IMPACT. Those of you who live near the coast should consider moving to higher ground if you can afford to. If you can´t afford to then buy a boat. If I´m reading this right and I think I am, this makes that Pentagon sponsored worst case study last year... well not the worst case. This is now the worst case. Those of you getting ready to invest in solar may want to invest in wind instead. I would anticipate a lot more cloudy and rainy days during wet seasons and longer droughts. I´m telling my architect on Wednesday, to put in a cistern and rain spouting to collect all the water I can. This sounds bad, real bad. Any confirmation by other scientists and engineers on this list would be appreciated. Tom Irwin -- From: Keith Addison [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org Sent: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 15:25:21 -0300 Subject: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0811-0 3.htmhttp://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0811-03.htm Published on Thursday, August 11, 2005 by the Guardian/UK Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' Siberia feels the heat: A frozen peat bog the size of France and Germany combined contains billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas, and for the first time since the ice age, it is melting. By Ian Sample A vast expanse of western Siberia is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climate scientists warn today. If we don't take action very soon, we could unleash runaway global warming that will be beyond our control and it will lead to social, economic and environmental devastation worldwide. Tony Juniper, director of Friends of the Earth Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometers - the size of France and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since first identifying tipping points - delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global temperatures. The discovery was made by Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in western Siberia and Judith Marquand at Oxford University and is reported in New Scientist today. The researchers found that what was until recently a barren expanse of frozen peat is turning into a broken landscape of mud and lakes, some more than a kilometer across. Dr Kirpotin told the magazine the situation was an ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming. He added that the thaw had probably begun in the past three or four years. Climate scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, and warned that predictions of future global temperatures would have to be revised upwards. When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply, said David Viner, a senior scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. This is a big deal because you can't put the permafrost back once it's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will ramp up temperatures even more than our emissions are doing. In its last major report in 2001, the intergovernmental panel on climate change predicted a rise in global
Re: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'
Hello Tom, I too come from Methodist stock. I do hate to be the bearer of bad news, and I consider it to be some of the worst news I have read to date, but according to Faithful America, gw bush is a United Methodist Christian. Here, see for yourself, fourth paragraph down I believe: Standing with the Faithful in Crawford, TX I was stunned when I read that, and it forced me to rethink several things about myself, and even my church, but in the end I know that I'm no george walker bush. Personally, I real damned thankful for that! On 8/16/05, Tom Irwin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hi Again, Careful Hakan, we´re talking fundamental Baptist of the born again variety. I come from Methodist stock. A fine Presbiterian minister in literature once characterised us asBaptists who can read. Bush might be one of those pushing for judgement day since he and his flock have already been saved while the rest of us are going to hell. Of course, my idea of hell is having the most powerfully armed country in the world run by fanactical Baptists.As I´m living in hell already there is little for me to fear. Tom Irwin snip -- AntiFossilMN, USA"Behind the ostensible government sits enthroned an invisible government owing no allegiance and acknowledging no responsibility to the people. To destroy this invisible government, to befoul the unholy alliance between corrupt business and corrupt politics is the first task of the statesmen of today." President Theodore Roosevelt - 1906Give me the money that has been spent in war and I will clothe every man, woman, and child in an attire of which kings and queens will be proud. I will build a schoolhouse in every valley over the whole earth. I will crown every hillside with a place of worship consecrated to peace: Charles SumnerQuotes from Information Clearing House ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
Re: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'
http://www.raptureready.com/ Hakan Falk wrote: Tom, I see your point and it explains a lot. Hakan At 11:38 16/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Again, Careful Hakan, we´re talking fundamental Baptist of the born again variety. I come from Methodist stock. A fine Presbiterian minister in literature once characterised us as Baptists who can read. Bush might be one of those pushing for judgement day since he and his flock have already been saved while the rest of us are going to hell. Of course, my idea of hell is having the most powerfully armed country in the world run by fanactical Baptists. As I´m living in hell already there is little for me to fear. Tom Irwin -- From: Hakan Falk [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.org Sent: Tue, 16 Aug 2005 05:36:50 -0300 Subject: Re: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' Hi all again, Who said that President Bush was religious? He cannot be, because then he would belive in judgement day and the way things are going, he will have to answer some very difficult questions. Hakan At 10:18 16/08/2005, you wrote: Hi All, I don´t want to sound like Chicken Little and disturb anyone going about their normal lives but if this proves to be true it´s going to have a HUGE IMPACT. Those of you who live near the coast should consider moving to higher ground if you can afford to. If you can´t afford to then buy a boat. If I´m reading this right and I think I am, this makes that Pentagon sponsored worst case study last year... well not the worst case. This is now the worst case. Those of you getting ready to invest in solar may want to invest in wind instead. I would anticipate a lot more cloudy and rainy days during wet seasons and longer droughts. I´m telling my architect on Wednesday, to put in a cistern and rain spouting to collect all the water I can. This sounds bad, real bad. Any confirmation by other scientists and engineers on this list would be appreciated. Tom Irwin -- From: Keith Addison [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org Sent: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 15:25:21 -0300 Subject: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0811-0 3.htmhttp://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0811-03.htm Published on Thursday, August 11, 2005 by the Guardian/UK Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' Siberia feels the heat: A frozen peat bog the size of France and Germany combined contains billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas, and for the first time since the ice age, it is melting. By Ian Sample A vast expanse of western Siberia is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climate scientists warn today. If we don't take action very soon, we could unleash runaway global warming that will be beyond our control and it will lead to social, economic and environmental devastation worldwide. Tony Juniper, director of Friends of the Earth Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometers - the size of France and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since first identifying tipping points - delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global temperatures. The discovery was made by Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in western Siberia and Judith Marquand at Oxford University and is reported in New Scientist today. The researchers found that what was until recently a barren expanse of frozen peat is turning into a broken landscape of mud and lakes, some more than a kilometer across. Dr Kirpotin told the magazine the situation was an ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming. He added that the thaw had probably begun in the past three or four years. Climate scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, and warned that predictions of future global temperatures would have to be revised upwards. When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply, said David Viner, a senior scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. This is a big deal because you can't put the permafrost back once it's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will ramp up temperatures even more than our emissions are doing. In its last major report in 2001, the intergovernmental panel
Re: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'
Hi Anti, Whoa, then who in the Methodist Church is giving this man the idea it's OK to destroy the environment? Perhaps we have a Methodist who is only a selective reader. Tom Twice Corrected But Better Informed From: AntiFossil [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.orgSent: Tue, 16 Aug 2005 11:00:28 -0300Subject: Re: [Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'Hello Tom,I too come from Methodist stock. I do hate to be the bearer of bad news, and I consider it to be some of the worst news I have read to date, but according to "Faithful America", gw bush is a United Methodist Christian. Here, see for yourself, fourth paragraph down I believe:" Standing with the Faithful in Crawford, TX"I was stunned when I read that, and it forced me to rethink several things about myself, and even my church, but in the end I know that I'm no george walker bush. Personally, I real damned thankful for that! On 8/16/05, Tom Irwin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hi Again, Careful Hakan, we´re talking fundamental Baptist of the born again variety. I come from Methodist stock. A fine Presbiterian minister in literature once characterised us asBaptists who can read. Bush might be one of those pushing for judgement day since he and his flock have already been saved while the rest of us are going to hell. Of course, my idea of hell is having the most powerfully armed country in the world run by fanactical Baptists.As I´m living in hell already there is little for me to fear. Tom Irwin snip-- AntiFossilMN, USA"Behind the ostensible government sits enthroned an invisible government owing no allegiance and acknowledging no responsibility to the people. To destroy this invisible government, to befoul the unholy alliance between corrupt business and corrupt politics is the first task of the statesmen of today." President Theodore Roosevelt - 1906Give me the money that has been spent in war and I will clothe every man, woman, and child in an attire of which kings and queens will be proud. I will build a schoolhouse in every valley over the whole earth. I will crown every hillside with a place of worship consecrated to peace: Charles SumnerQuotes from" Information Clearing House " ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
[Biofuel] Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0811-03.htm Published on Thursday, August 11, 2005 by the Guardian/UK Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' Siberia feels the heat: A frozen peat bog the size of France and Germany combined contains billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas, and for the first time since the ice age, it is melting. By Ian Sample A vast expanse of western Siberia is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climate scientists warn today. If we don't take action very soon, we could unleash runaway global warming that will be beyond our control and it will lead to social, economic and environmental devastation worldwide. Tony Juniper, director of Friends of the Earth Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometers - the size of France and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since first identifying tipping points - delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global temperatures. The discovery was made by Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in western Siberia and Judith Marquand at Oxford University and is reported in New Scientist today. The researchers found that what was until recently a barren expanse of frozen peat is turning into a broken landscape of mud and lakes, some more than a kilometer across. Dr Kirpotin told the magazine the situation was an ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming. He added that the thaw had probably begun in the past three or four years. Climate scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, and warned that predictions of future global temperatures would have to be revised upwards. When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply, said David Viner, a senior scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. This is a big deal because you can't put the permafrost back once it's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will ramp up temperatures even more than our emissions are doing. In its last major report in 2001, the intergovernmental panel on climate change predicted a rise in global temperatures of 1.4C-5.8C between 1990 and 2100, but the estimate only takes account of global warming driven by known greenhouse gas emissions. These positive feedbacks with landmasses weren't known about then. They had no idea how much they would add to global warming, said Dr Viner. Western Siberia is heating up faster than anywhere else in the world, having experienced a rise of some 3C in the past 40 years. Scientists are particularly concerned about the permafrost, because as it thaws, it reveals bare ground which warms up more quickly than ice and snow, and so accelerates the rate at which the permafrost thaws. Siberia's peat bogs have been producing methane since they formed at the end of the last ice age, but most of the gas had been trapped in the permafrost. According to Larry Smith, a hydrologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, the west Siberian peat bog could hold some 70bn tons of methane, a quarter of all of the methane stored in the ground around the world. The permafrost is likely to take many decades at least to thaw, so the methane locked within it will not be released into the atmosphere in one burst, said Stephen Sitch, a climate scientist at the Met Office's Hadley Center in Exeter. But calculations by Dr Sitch and his colleagues show that even if methane seeped from the permafrost over the next 100 years, it would add around 700m tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year, roughly the same amount that is released annually from the world's wetlands and agriculture. It would effectively double atmospheric levels of the gas, leading to a 10% to 25% increase in global warming, he said. Tony Juniper, director of Friends of the Earth, said the finding was a stark message to politicians to take concerted action on climate change. We knew at some point we'd get these feedbacks happening that exacerbate global warming, but this could lead to a massive injection of greenhouse gases. If we don't take action very soon, we could unleash runaway global warming that will be beyond our control and it will lead to social,
