Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-30 Thread Dr. David Kirkby
On 28 May 2014 14:06, Tom Holmes thol...@woh.rr.com wrote:

 Which begs the question: just where the heck, exactly, is the center of
the
 Earth given that it is in the 'middle' of a molten and dynamic core.

I always thought that the centre was molten. There was something on the TV
in the UK a couple of weeks ago which seemed to indicate that the centre is
actually solid, although around that it is molten.

I did not see it all and was only watching bits of it,  but it would appear
some female researcher had proven this. The proof appeared to be based on
the time of travel of shock wases from earthquakes and the different speed
they travel through solid and liquid.

Dave.
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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-30 Thread Jim Lux

On 5/30/14, 2:41 AM, Dr. David Kirkby wrote:

On 28 May 2014 14:06, Tom Holmes thol...@woh.rr.com wrote:


Which begs the question: just where the heck, exactly, is the center of

the

Earth given that it is in the 'middle' of a molten and dynamic core.


I always thought that the centre was molten. There was something on the TV
in the UK a couple of weeks ago which seemed to indicate that the centre is
actually solid, although around that it is molten.


Molten, but it's a composite material under a lot of pressure, so the 
transition between liquid and solid isn't like between ice and 
water.   Think cold peanut butter.





I did not see it all and was only watching bits of it,  but it would appear
some female researcher had proven this. The proof appeared to be based on
the time of travel of shock wases from earthquakes and the different speed
they travel through solid and liquid.


Seismic evidence is how they knew it was liquid in the first place.  As 
you get better at doing the models, and getting better time measurements 
of the seismic propagation with higher performance seismometers, you can 
get a better model.


Combine that with precise orbit determination (using accurate 
measurements of time and frequency from orbits) which allows accurate 
gravity models (e.g. GRACE and GRACE-Follow-On)






Dave.
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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-30 Thread Hal Murray
[Structure of Earth's core]

jim...@earthlink.net said:
 Molten, but it's a composite material under a lot of pressure, so the
 transition between liquid and solid isn't like between ice and  water.
 Think cold peanut butter. 

 Seismic evidence is how they knew it was liquid in the first place.  As you
 get better at doing the models, and getting better time measurements of the
 seismic propagation with higher performance seismometers, you can get a
 better model.

There was an article in Scientific American back in the early 1970s 
discussing the structure of the Earth and all the tricks the seismologists 
used to figure things out.  I remember a diagram of the cross section of the 
Earth with a blizzard of seismic paths, bending and bouncing at each boundary.

In that time frame, there was a lot of money for seismic research.  It was a 
key part of the test ban treaties.

What did seismologists use for timing back then?

-- 
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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-30 Thread Jim Lux

On 5/30/14, 3:00 PM, Hal Murray wrote:

[Structure of Earth's core]

jim...@earthlink.net said:

Molten, but it's a composite material under a lot of pressure, so the
transition between liquid and solid isn't like between ice and  water.
Think cold peanut butter.



Seismic evidence is how they knew it was liquid in the first place.  As you
get better at doing the models, and getting better time measurements of the
seismic propagation with higher performance seismometers, you can get a
better model.


There was an article in Scientific American back in the early 1970s
discussing the structure of the Earth and all the tricks the seismologists
used to figure things out.  I remember a diagram of the cross section of the
Earth with a blizzard of seismic paths, bending and bouncing at each boundary.

In that time frame, there was a lot of money for seismic research.  It was a
key part of the test ban treaties.

What did seismologists use for timing back then?



A good wristwatch?

Most of the work was done with conventional ink on graph paper drum 
recorders, and the sync was probably done with some sort of conventional 
derived from national time reference source: WWV or similar in the US.


It's not like you need nanosecond precision when you're looking at 
propagation times of minutes.


P wave propagates at about 5 km/sec
S wave propagates at about 3 km/sec

That's enough difference that you can tell how far the epicenter is from 
you in a local earthquake.  If it's close (within 10km), you feel the 
earthquake as a single event, because the P wave arrives in a couple 
seconds and the S wave is a second later, while the shaking is still 
going on (unless it's a very small quake).  If it's farther away (say 
50km), then you feel two separate events (50 sec vs 80 sec).


I would say that most people who live in Southern California for a while 
and are somewhat aware of it can tell the rough distance and magnitude 
of an earthquake because of this, even if they don't know why.  Duration 
of shaking correlates well with magnitude. The short thump is probably 
a 2 or 3 (was that an earthquake or a sonic boom or someone dropping a 
truck load of something), a 4 will maybe be a rumble or a couple sways, 
a 5 is we're definitely having an earthquake because it lasts 
distinctly long enough for you to realize that something's going on 
that's not a short event, and a 6 is in the seems to last forever 
category.



So if you get a crack, thump, rattle followed a few seconds later 
by the lamps or cupboard door swinging a bit, you say hey, a 3.5 10 
miles away


The P wave has a distinct crack and feels short to me, and the S 
(shear, transverse to propagation direction) wave is more the rolling 
and swaying (depending on the direction of motion).


It's kind of like counting seconds between lightning flash and thunder 
(short duration event, delay, long duration event)



In any case, to propagate the 10,000-15,000 km across the earth takes 
the better part of an hour.

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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-28 Thread Tom Holmes
Which begs the question: just where the heck, exactly, is the center of the
Earth given that it is in the 'middle' of a molten and dynamic core. Are the
satellite orbits so stable and/or measurable around the center of
gravitational pull that the location can be determined from that? Where is
the reference point? Is Archimedes fulcrum for moving the planet nearby? 

This would seem to play into the accuracy of the location of the GPS
satellites at any given time-hack.

Tom Holmes, N8ZM

-Original Message-
From: time-nuts-boun...@febo.com [mailto:time-nuts-boun...@febo.com] On
Behalf Of Chris Albertson
Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2014 12:22 AM
To: Discussion of precise time and frequency measurement
Subject: Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea
level change

 On 5/27/14, 10:24 AM, Brooke Clarke wrote:

 This is one of the problems I have with the claim that sea level is
 rising at 2mm per year.  i.e. how well can they back out the plate
 movement in historical tide gauge records?

Let's assume they are NOT good at this and are working with factor of
two error.All you need to know to see there is a problem is the
order of magnitude of the trend.

It's like if someone says the house is on fire. We have to get out
and then you argue no it's not because you've got the rate of
combustion off by a factor of 2.73.   Small factors don't change the
practical result.

2mm/yr is a small and very conservative estimate.  A better one that
reflects current conditions is nearly 4mm/yr.  But the worry is that
the rate is not constant and there is some positive feedback.  That
seems to be the case but it will take 20 years to really know for
sure.

BACK ON TOPIC...   What does it take to measure ones distance from the
center of the Earth accurately enough to detect geological movement in
a reasonable amount of time? Measuring distance really is, I think
a time nut problem as I bet it involves measuring radio waves.
-- 

Chris Albertson
Redondo Beach, California
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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-28 Thread Jim Lux

On 5/28/14, 6:04 AM, Tom Holmes wrote:

Which begs the question: just where the heck, exactly, is the center of the
Earth given that it is in the 'middle' of a molten and dynamic core. Are the
satellite orbits so stable and/or measurable around the center of
gravitational pull that the location can be determined from that? Where is
the reference point? Is Archimedes fulcrum for moving the planet nearby?

This would seem to play into the accuracy of the location of the GPS
satellites at any given time-hack.

T



There's a group of people around the world who worry about this kind of 
thing.  There's a difference between the barycenter (the center of 
mass) and the Earth centered coordinate system orgins. In fact, there's 
somewhat of a dispute going on about whether we should update from 
WGS84:  that coordinate system was defined to be the same (within 
measurement precision) as the previous origin, but now within 
measurement precision has gotten smaller, and there's a difference. 
But that raises a question of whether we need to redo all the state 
plane coordinate transformations, since they're in terms of WGS84.



As to whether the satellite orbits are stable/measurable, the answer is 
most certainly yes.  It was fairly precise measurements of satellite 
signals in the 60s that led to the changing of the geoid from an 
ellipsoid to something more pear shaped.


Precise measurements of satellite orbits and Doppler rates is how we 
infer the internal structure of the outer planets.  A typical 
measurement uncertainty is a few cm and a few mm/sec for a probe at 
Jupiter.


One generally does some sort of fit to a gravitational model with some 
number of spherical harmonic terms (ten or twenty, as I recall).


The ephemeris for GPS takes this into account, so if you also account 
for things like the ionosphere, you can determine your position to cm 
accuracy (absolute).  Note well that the GPS ephemeris doesn't contain 
all the spherical harmonics and effects.. what they do is reload the 
ephemeris periodically with fewer terms so that you can use it for a few 
days (as I recall, for satelites in reasonable orbits (not too low), 
the uncertainty in satellite position after a day is on the order of 
meters.


Some satellites are particularly stable: QuikScat was in a special 
orbit, and as I recall, after a year, it was only a few hundred meters 
from where the year old ephemeris predicted it would be.  The orbit 
height (803 km) had changed maybe 1 km.


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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-28 Thread Jim Lux

On 5/27/14, 9:21 PM, Chris Albertson wrote:

On 5/27/14, 10:24 AM, Brooke Clarke wrote:




BACK ON TOPIC...   What does it take to measure ones distance from the
center of the Earth accurately enough to detect geological movement in
a reasonable amount of time? Measuring distance really is, I think
a time nut problem as I bet it involves measuring radio waves.



Considering that the Pacific Plate is moving north at about 2cm/year, 
that is easily detectable with GPS and post processing. Somebody in 
Southern California should be able to measure it without going to too 
exotic an effort: you need a GPS receiver that can put out the 
observables in a gipsy file, and then post process through JPL's website.


The Ventura Anticline is still rising at about the same rate.


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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-28 Thread Tom Holmes
Thanks Jim.

So if, just for fun since this is time-nuts after all, I wanted to make a
similar measurement in my back yard here in the relatively stable Ohio,
would I be able rig something up to monitor the position changes? Obviously
a lot of averaging  of GPS position data would be needed but I'm not sure my
Z3801 or any of my navigation receivers have the necessary resolution to see
even 10 mm.

Tom Holmes, N8ZM

-Original Message-
From: time-nuts-boun...@febo.com [mailto:time-nuts-boun...@febo.com] On
Behalf Of Jim Lux
Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2014 4:54 PM
To: time-nuts@febo.com
Subject: Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea
level change

On 5/28/14, 6:04 AM, Tom Holmes wrote:
 Which begs the question: just where the heck, exactly, is the center of
the
 Earth given that it is in the 'middle' of a molten and dynamic core. Are
the
 satellite orbits so stable and/or measurable around the center of
 gravitational pull that the location can be determined from that? Where is
 the reference point? Is Archimedes fulcrum for moving the planet nearby?

 This would seem to play into the accuracy of the location of the GPS
 satellites at any given time-hack.

 T


There's a group of people around the world who worry about this kind of 
thing.  There's a difference between the barycenter (the center of 
mass) and the Earth centered coordinate system orgins. In fact, there's 
somewhat of a dispute going on about whether we should update from 
WGS84:  that coordinate system was defined to be the same (within 
measurement precision) as the previous origin, but now within 
measurement precision has gotten smaller, and there's a difference. 
But that raises a question of whether we need to redo all the state 
plane coordinate transformations, since they're in terms of WGS84.


As to whether the satellite orbits are stable/measurable, the answer is 
most certainly yes.  It was fairly precise measurements of satellite 
signals in the 60s that led to the changing of the geoid from an 
ellipsoid to something more pear shaped.

Precise measurements of satellite orbits and Doppler rates is how we 
infer the internal structure of the outer planets.  A typical 
measurement uncertainty is a few cm and a few mm/sec for a probe at 
Jupiter.

One generally does some sort of fit to a gravitational model with some 
number of spherical harmonic terms (ten or twenty, as I recall).

The ephemeris for GPS takes this into account, so if you also account 
for things like the ionosphere, you can determine your position to cm 
accuracy (absolute).  Note well that the GPS ephemeris doesn't contain 
all the spherical harmonics and effects.. what they do is reload the 
ephemeris periodically with fewer terms so that you can use it for a few 
days (as I recall, for satelites in reasonable orbits (not too low), 
the uncertainty in satellite position after a day is on the order of 
meters.

Some satellites are particularly stable: QuikScat was in a special 
orbit, and as I recall, after a year, it was only a few hundred meters 
from where the year old ephemeris predicted it would be.  The orbit 
height (803 km) had changed maybe 1 km.

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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-28 Thread Hal Murray

thol...@woh.rr.com said:
 I'm not sure my Z3801 or any of my navigation receivers have the necessary
 resolution to see even 10 mm.

In normal operation (post survey), a Z3801A knows the location and uses 
that to work out a better time and/or the time with fewer satellites.  So you 
won't be getting any new location data.

It might be interesting to set one up in a loop to do a survey, grab the 
location, then repeat.  After a day or week, you could average the locations 
and/or compute std dev and such.


-- 
These are my opinions.  I hate spam.



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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-28 Thread Bob Stewart
Hal, you bring up an interesting point:  Is the receiver in a Z3801 inherently 
more accurate in position reporting than the receiver in an Adafruit?  Somehow 
I doubt it, if for no other reason than the improvements in technology.  
(Excluding any programming errors that may or may not exist in the MT3339.)  
What the Z3801 has that the 3339 doesn't have is code to accurately calculate 
the PPS timing error based on a fixed position.  So, if my reasoning is 
correct, wouldn't you do better running the Adafruit X number of days and 
doing an average of the position over that period?

Bob



 From: Hal Murray hmur...@megapathdsl.net
To: Discussion of precise time and frequency measurement time-nuts@febo.com 
Cc: hmur...@megapathdsl.net 
Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2014 4:32 PM
Subject: Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level 
change
 


thol...@woh.rr.com said:
 I'm not sure my Z3801 or any of my navigation receivers have the necessary
 resolution to see even 10 mm.

In normal operation (post survey), a Z3801A knows the location and uses 
that to work out a better time and/or the time with fewer satellites.  So you 
won't be getting any new location data.

It might be interesting to set one up in a loop to do a survey, grab the 
location, then repeat.  After a day or week, you could average the locations 
and/or compute std dev and such.
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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-28 Thread Tom Holmes
I'll have to run a quick calculation on the data it presents to see if it is
good enough to use.

Tom Holmes, N8ZM

-Original Message-
From: time-nuts-boun...@febo.com [mailto:time-nuts-boun...@febo.com] On
Behalf Of Hal Murray
Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2014 5:33 PM
To: Discussion of precise time and frequency measurement
Cc: hmur...@megapathdsl.net
Subject: Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea
level change


thol...@woh.rr.com said:
 I'm not sure my Z3801 or any of my navigation receivers have the necessary
 resolution to see even 10 mm.

In normal operation (post survey), a Z3801A knows the location and uses 
that to work out a better time and/or the time with fewer satellites.  So
you 
won't be getting any new location data.

It might be interesting to set one up in a loop to do a survey, grab the 
location, then repeat.  After a day or week, you could average the locations

and/or compute std dev and such.


-- 
These are my opinions.  I hate spam.



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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-28 Thread Jim Lux

On 5/28/14, 2:11 PM, Tom Holmes wrote:

Thanks Jim.

So if, just for fun since this is time-nuts after all, I wanted to make a
similar measurement in my back yard here in the relatively stable Ohio,
would I be able rig something up to monitor the position changes? Obviously
a lot of averaging  of GPS position data would be needed but I'm not sure my
Z3801 or any of my navigation receivers have the necessary resolution to see
even 10 mm.

T



Sure it can.. you don't do it by averaging lat/lons, though...

What you need is to program your receiver to give you the raw 
observables (someone on the list can point you to how you do this), and 
then you need to get them in what's called RINEX file format.  You 
submit your RINEX formatted files to JPL's web based GIPSY processing 
site (wait at least a week or two after you collect your data, so they 
have the precise GPS ephemeris figured out), and get your geodetic data 
back.


As I recall, given your position, they have post hoc ionospheric 
calculations from recordings made at high precision receivers near you 
which they can use to compensate your measurements, etc.




I'm oversimplifying a lot of the above process out of ignorance, but 
basically that's how it's done.



I have been told that it's pretty easy to see things like solid earth 
tides with a fairly simple system. Mind you fairly simple to these 
guys might mean a high quality choke ring on a geodetic pedestal with a 
precision invar rod driven into the bedrock within a steel protective 
casing. but it could also mean a helibowl antenna with the helix wound 
on a plastic solo cup stuck inside an aluminum kitchen stove burner liner.


One of the longest continuously running geodetic receiver stations is at 
JPL and is basically a DM choke ring sitting on the ground on the edge 
of a hill.  (this is referred to as the Aries Site*, for some reason)


http://goo.gl/maps/mXTcK

in the lower right corner of the dirt area south of the parking lot 
area, you'll see a dark dot in the middle of a lighter round thing: 
that's the antenna.


The trailer at the top of the image is where the receiver is, and the 
coax is running along the east side of the parking lot.


Contrary to the copyright date at the bottom, this image is at least 2 
years old, because they've moved the trailer away, and the receiver is 
now in a little building across the street (on the west side of the image).



*It might well be that initial testing of ARIES (a VLBI experiment)
http://ipnpr.jpl.nasa.gov/progress_report2/42-26/26G.PDF
was done up there.  There's a couple surveyed concrete pads with steel 
mounts and benchmarks.  The DSN report was from 1975, so it's 
substantially before my time at the lab (as well as most people around), 
although there are some familiar names in that paper (Spitzmesser has 
dozens of GPS related pubs)



https://ia600505.us.archive.org/3/items/nasa_techdoc_19840071052/19840071052.pdf

has a picture of the smaller 4 meter system (it's more portable than the 
9 meter system, and claims better performance because of the liquid 
helium cooled maser, portable cesium clock, etc.)  I guess portable is 
relative, especially when you talk to DSN folks who think in terms of 70 
meter antennas. (For scale..the building in the background of the 
picture is Bldg 180 at JPL, the main admin building, and is 9 stories 
tall.  A 70 meter DSN antenna is taller than that building)


what's fascinating is that today, you can buy, for less than $20, a low 
noise block converter for 12 GHz (Ku-band) with a noise temperature 20K.


But back in the early 70s, pre-GPS days, you had to be a serious 
time-nut...



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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-28 Thread Paul
On Wed, May 28, 2014 at 6:28 PM, Jim Lux jim...@earthlink.net wrote:

 What you need is to program your receiver to give you the raw observables
 (someone on the list can point you to how you do this), and then you need
 to get them in what's called RINEX file format.  You submit your RINEX
 formatted files to JPL's web based GIPSY processing site (wait at least a
 week or two after you collect your data, so they have the precise GPS
 ephemeris figured out), and get your geodetic data back.



The JPL system says it will do single frequency in the future so for now I
think you need a dual frequency(L1/L2) receiver.  The Canadian Geomatics
group does single frequency and of course you can do your own
post-processing.  RTKLIB (I think first mentioned here in 2011) seems to be
popular.  PPP is why I have LEA-6T and NEO-7P receivers.

RTKLIB says it can locate my antenna within a 2x5x10 cm volume given a few
days of data.
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[time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-27 Thread Brooke Clarke

Hi:

Classical tide gauges measure the height of the water relative to the gauge.  But since the gauge is attached to a 
tectonic plate it's elevation is changing.
This is one of the problems I have with the claim that sea level is rising at 2mm per year.  i.e. how well can they back 
out the plate movement in historical tide gauge records?


The new system uses a pair of GPS antennas one pointed up and the other pointed 
down at the water.
http://www.mynewsdesk.com/uk/chalmers/pressreleases/new-tide-gauge-uses-gps-signals-to-measure-sea-level-change-998041?utm_source=rssutm_medium=rssutm_campaign=Subscriptionutm_content=pressrelease

--
Have Fun,

Brooke Clarke
http://www.PRC68.com
http://www.end2partygovernment.com/2012Issues.html
http://www.prc68.com/I/DietNutrition.html

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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-27 Thread Jim Lux

On 5/27/14, 10:24 AM, Brooke Clarke wrote:

Hi:

Classical tide gauges measure the height of the water relative to the
gauge.  But since the gauge is attached to a tectonic plate it's
elevation is changing.
This is one of the problems I have with the claim that sea level is
rising at 2mm per year.  i.e. how well can they back out the plate
movement in historical tide gauge records?


Quite well.  This is what geodesy specialists (geodesists?) do for a 
living.  There's guys and gals at JPL who measure the earth's rotational 
axis to fractions of a cm and sub microsecond (with a lot of averaging 
and accounting for all sorts of error and offset sources)


I would look for instance, at the Topex/Jason things where they 
regularly measure sea surface height to mm accuracy (that's how they 
infer ocean temperature and El Nino.. warm water floats on top, etc.)


One should also be aware that very precise altimetry has some 
constraints on the publishable data.  Over small time and geographic 
scales one can see things like the wake of a submarine: the 
oceanographers call that noise that has to be removed: other people 
call that signal.


In any case, I'd believe a general statement of mm of seal level 
change over a sufficient averaging interval.


What's more important is why it rises (fresh water floats, so if you get 
a warm summer that melts lots of ice, you can get a layer of freshwater 
on top of the salt water.


Keeping this time nutsy, there is some research on using reflections of 
gps signals to distinguish (e.g. you get a big reflection from the 
air/water surface, but you get smaller reflections from the fresh/salt 
interface, etc.)


It's similar to the things you can do with trying to look for the 
complete correlation graph for a GPS signal, rather than just tracking 
the biggest peak.







The new system uses a pair of GPS antennas one pointed up and the other
pointed down at the water.
http://www.mynewsdesk.com/uk/chalmers/pressreleases/new-tide-gauge-uses-gps-signals-to-measure-sea-level-change-998041?utm_source=rssutm_medium=rssutm_campaign=Subscriptionutm_content=pressrelease




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Re: [time-nuts] New tide gauge uses GPS signals to measure sea level change

2014-05-27 Thread Chris Albertson
 On 5/27/14, 10:24 AM, Brooke Clarke wrote:

 This is one of the problems I have with the claim that sea level is
 rising at 2mm per year.  i.e. how well can they back out the plate
 movement in historical tide gauge records?

Let's assume they are NOT good at this and are working with factor of
two error.All you need to know to see there is a problem is the
order of magnitude of the trend.

It's like if someone says the house is on fire. We have to get out
and then you argue no it's not because you've got the rate of
combustion off by a factor of 2.73.   Small factors don't change the
practical result.

2mm/yr is a small and very conservative estimate.  A better one that
reflects current conditions is nearly 4mm/yr.  But the worry is that
the rate is not constant and there is some positive feedback.  That
seems to be the case but it will take 20 years to really know for
sure.

BACK ON TOPIC...   What does it take to measure ones distance from the
center of the Earth accurately enough to detect geological movement in
a reasonable amount of time? Measuring distance really is, I think
a time nut problem as I bet it involves measuring radio waves.
-- 

Chris Albertson
Redondo Beach, California
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