The Jakarta Post, Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Editorial: Surveying the Surveyors The Jakarta Post In politics, we often hear the expression kingmaker being flung about, in reference to a hugely powerful person who is in a position to influence or manipulate the emergence of a "king". >From what we are now experiencing in Indonesia, perhaps we can add one more candidate to the list of potential kingmakers: The surveyors. Political scientist Denny J.A. could be soon included on the list. Denny, the holder of a PhD and one of the country's leading surveyors, is now putting his reputation on the line by launching a massive campaign to convince voters that, based on his survey - or his organization's - the presidential election this year will only go to one round, with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his running mate Boediono - who Denny or his organization now serves - winning the July 8 poll in a landslide. Denny's statement is perhaps comparable to the pre-election surveys in Iran, which said opposition candidate Mir Hossein Moushavi would win outright by garnering more than 50 percent of the votes. However, the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the eventual winner in the June 12 election, securing a 63 percent landslide that dwarfed Moushavi's 34 percent. It is very difficult to gauge the impact of Denny's appeal to voters. Will they be persuaded to play along because the prospect of a two-round election is unappealing to them, or because Denny is correct in his assessment? But it is also possible that Denny's tactics could backfire because voters are upset with him. Many people accuse Denny and other pollsters of toying with the public in the name of science, just to please their clients of win over new ones. As polling is relatively a new business here, at least for a while this business will continue to provoke controversy, until we are able to regulate this business adequately to ensure its objectivity and fairness. Denny's claim of a one-round presidential election has drawn criticism from the other candidates. Jusuf Kalla and his running mate Wiranto, and Megawati Soekarnoputri and her running mate Prabowo Subianto, are confident that Denny's claim is totally baseless. As both have their own survey teams, it is not surprising that the two tickets receive far more favorable reports from their own surveyors. Political surveyors are harvesting a windfall from the results of the country's democratization, because in elections, politicians and parties hire them to test the market, to "polish" their image or to take "all necessary measures" to lure votes for candidates or parties that have paid the surveyors for their services. In any democracy, the services of pollsters are much needed. What we need to learn is how to make sure they do not manipulate public opinion at the cost of democracy itself. ---------- No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 8.5.374 / Virus Database: 270.12.89/2197 - Release Date: 06/23/09 05:54:00 [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
