Re: [agi] Dr. Turing, I presume?
Ben, you are absolutely correct. It was my intention to exaggerate the situation a bit without actually crossing the line. But I don't think it is much of an exaggeration to say that a 'baby' Novamente even with limited hardware and speed is a tremendous event in the history of life on Earth. A phase change starts with one molecule. As computers are becoming more powerful and nanotech capabilities reach closer to the ultimate goal of molecular positional assembly the world will crossa threshold similar to supercooled water where one triggering event will set off a chain reaction causing a phase change to ice throughout the entire mass. Okay, I'm exaggerating again, but not much. The money men know it is coming. But they have been burned so many times before in the A.I. category that they are not willing to touch the stove again, unless someone can show them something that works. It doesn't have to be a finished product, just something that demonstrates a new capability. Your 'baby' Novamente or Peter's proof-of-concept example or James Rogers' who-knows-super-secret-whatits will trigger a phase change in funding for AGI. The practical applications are unlimited. The profit potential is unlimited. That's why the money men threw away so much twenty years ago on projects that didn't have a ghost of a chance and got burned. I'm not saying that your 'baby' Novemente will change the whole world overnight all by itself. But any working example of AGI, no matter how limited, will trigger a complicated chain reaction in the economy and mindset of the world. The initial example, whatever it is,may turn out to be a flawed design of limited usefulness (I wouldn't want to see scaled-up jumbo 'Wright Flyers' populating airport terminals) but it will not matter. Just look at the funding that GOOGLE has attracted with some cleverly written but dumb (non-AGI) rules. To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
RE: [agi] Dr. Turing, I presume?
Mike, I agree that a baby AGI with clear dramatic promise will supercharge the AGI funding scene. And as you know I'm mighty eager to get to that stage!!! ;-) -- Ben G -Original Message-From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]On Behalf Of deeringSent: Saturday, January 10, 2004 8:10 AMTo: [EMAIL PROTECTED]Subject: Re: [agi] Dr. Turing, I presume? Ben, you are absolutely correct. It was my intention to exaggerate the situation a bit without actually crossing the line. But I don't think it is much of an exaggeration to say that a 'baby' Novamente even with limited hardware and speed is a tremendous event in the history of life on Earth. A phase change starts with one molecule. As computers are becoming more powerful and nanotech capabilities reach closer to the ultimate goal of molecular positional assembly the world will crossa threshold similar to supercooled water where one triggering event will set off a chain reaction causing a phase change to ice throughout the entire mass. Okay, I'm exaggerating again, but not much. The money men know it is coming. But they have been burned so many times before in the A.I. category that they are not willing to touch the stove again, unless someone can show them something that works. It doesn't have to be a finished product, just something that demonstrates a new capability. Your 'baby' Novamente or Peter's proof-of-concept example or James Rogers' who-knows-super-secret-whatits will trigger a phase change in funding for AGI. The practical applications are unlimited. The profit potential is unlimited. That's why the money men threw away so much twenty years ago on projects that didn't have a ghost of a chance and got burned. I'm not saying that your 'baby' Novemente will change the whole world overnight all by itself. But any working example of AGI, no matter how limited, will trigger a complicated chain reaction in the economy and mindset of the world. The initial example, whatever it is,may turn out to be a flawed design of limited usefulness (I wouldn't want to see scaled-up jumbo 'Wright Flyers' populating airport terminals) but it will not matter. Just look at the funding that GOOGLE has attracted with some cleverly written but dumb (non-AGI) rules. To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED] To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: [agi] Dr. Turing, I presume?
On Sat, 10 Jan 2004, deering wrote: Ben, you are absolutely correct. It was my intention to exaggerate the situation a bit without actually crossing the line. But I don't think it is much of an exaggeration to say that a 'baby' Novamente even with limited hardware and speed is a tremendous event in the history of life on Earth. A phase change starts with one molecule. As computers are Yes, but what effect will it immediately have? How long after the development of the transistor that the average person's life was significantly changed? This baby novamente will be one of many blips on the radar. The public is constantly innundated with reports of revolutions in AI and they have become jaded by such sensationalistic reporting. So that if/when Ben succeeds, how is anyone to know that they're looking at a real baby AI, and not some slight enhancement of the AIBO? They won't. Only you, I and maybe 998 other other people would understand the significance and these 1000 only because we're well versed with Ben's activities. Any AGI will take a decade to make itself known and to rise above the signal/noise ratio of scientific media. becoming more powerful and nanotech capabilities reach closer to the ultimate goal of molecular positional assembly the world will cross a threshold similar to supercooled water where one triggering event will set off a chain reaction causing a phase change to ice throughout the entire mass. Okay, I'm exaggerating again, but not much. The money men know it is coming. But they have been burned so many times before in the A.I. category that they are not willing to touch the stove again, unless someone can show them something that works. It doesn't have to be a finished product, just something that demonstrates a new capability. Your 'baby' Novamente or Peter's proof-of-concept example or James Rogers' who-knows-super-secret-whatits will trigger a phase change in funding for AGI. The practical applications are unlimited. The profit potential is unlimited. That's why the money men threw away so much twenty years ago on projects that didn't have a ghost of a chance and got burned. I'm not saying that your 'baby' Novemente will change the whole world overnight all by itself. But any working example of AGI, no matter how limited, will trigger a complicated chain reaction in the economy and mindset of the world. The initial example, whatever it is, may turn out to be a flawed design of limited usefulness (I wouldn't want to see scaled-up jumbo 'Wright Flyers' populating airport terminals) but it will not matter. Just look at the funding that GOOGLE has attracted with some cleverly written but dumb (non-AGI) rules. You, me and all of us are a collection of cleverly written but dumb rules :) --- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
RE: [agi] Dr. Turing, I presume?
Brad wrote: So that if/when Ben succeeds, how is anyone to know that they're looking at a real baby AI, and not some slight enhancement of the AIBO? They won't. Only you, I and maybe 998 other other people would understand the significance and these 1000 only because we're well versed with Ben's activities. Any AGI will take a decade to make itself known and to rise above the signal/noise ratio of scientific media. I see your point, but I'm not so sure you're correct. I think about it this way: * Sometimes bullshit get huge amounts of media attention and money. * Sometimes really *demonstrably* valuable things get pathetically little media attention and money * Sometimes really demonstrably valuable things get huge amounts of media attention and money Assuming Novababy really eventuates like I hope/believe it will, I intend to ensure that Novamente AGI falls into the latter category. I don't think its so impossible to achieve this, it just requires approaching the task of fundraising and publicity-seeking with some energy and inventiveness. I think I have a good idea of what achieving this requires. For instance, I have a good friend who lives here in DC who is a very successful PR agent and would be quite helpful on the media aspect of this (one of his jobs was doing PR for the Republic of Sealand, which was totally obscure before he started working with them, and wound up on the cover of Wired and in every major paper... and is a heck of a lot less generally interesting than Novamente...). And I know a few people in the US gov't research funding establishment, who personally like AGI, but who can't authorize AGI funding due to internal-politics constraints. It wouldn't take such a big nudge for the research-funding establishment to give them the go-ahead to follow their intuitions and fund AGI. I think that raising funds and serious positive publicity for a scientifically successful baby AGI project is a *hard* problem, but nowhere near as hard as making the baby AI in the first place. Confident as I am in Novamente, it's the making the baby AI work problem that worries me more, not the how to publicize and monetize AGI once the baby AI works problem!! -- Ben G --- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
