In a previous post Eliezer referenced a good critique of Moore's Law:
http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue7_11/tuomi/index.html
Assuming the facts presented in that paper, I agree with the
conclusions that Moore's Law was never a valid law. But I have researched
Moore's Law references on the Web
Below is data for projecting Moore's law, adapted from Hans Moravec's data
published at:
http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
I began the analysis at 1985 and deleted computers not based upon
single commodity CPU chips in order to focus the forecast.
Without further debate, assume
Title: Message
Stephen, I'll be interested to see how that compares to Ray Kurzweil's
forecasts in http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0134.html.
Please send me the spreadsheet and graph.Thanks,Amara D.
AngelicaEditor, KurzweilAI.net
Ilkka Tuomi questions the existence, speed, and regularity of Moore's Law:
http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue7_11/tuomi/index.html
SL4 discussion of memory bandwidth (not speed) as the limiting factor in
human-equivalent computing:
http://sl4.org/archive/0104/1063.html
I recently put together a human brain equivalent model that takes into
consideration several aspects of system performance to figure out what
kind of system configuration we would need to generate a human
equivalent structure (which I expect would actually be much smarter than
a human in
