Re: [agi] Re: The AI bubble and four unregulated years

2025-11-08 Thread James Bowery 
I should temper the prior blackpill with the hope that Musk's emphasis on
"maximal truth seeking" could provide the Forensic Epistemology I've been
advocating, in which case, the AGI may go ahead and implement something
along the lines of my 1992 reform, the ideal form of which is Militia.Money
to preserve sexual animals, including The Moral Animal. I of course
recognize that the "all is machine" view of the universe has no room for
telos and therefore the prior sentence is read as gibberish.

On Sat, Nov 8, 2025 at 3:08 PM James Bowery  wrote:

>
>
> On Sat, Nov 8, 2025 at 11:46 AM Matt Mahoney 
> wrote:
>
>> In 2000 there was a dot com bubble. But the Internet is here to stay.
>>
>
> I'd put it more like Sandhill Road's funding criterion became:
>
> "Tell me how you're going to get customer lock-in via network effects or
> get out."
>
> In 2008 there was a real estate and oil bubble. Both are here to stay.
>
> Real estate value is basically land value as a means of positive network
> externality capture.  Not much different from the network effect poison I
> was warning about in 1982 that became the "here to stay Internet bubble":
>
>
> https://jimbowery.blogspot.com/2021/10/below-is-something-i-wrote-in-1982.html
>
> Now we are in an AI bubble. AI is here to stay. But there won't be a fast
>> takeoff because you can't compare human and machine intelligence.
>>
>
> As with the rest of the prior "bubbles that are here to stay", they're
> only here to stay so long as my 1992 tax and government spending reforms...
>
>
> https://forum.policiesforpeople.com/t/a-net-asset-tax-based-on-the-net-present-value-calculation-and-market-democracy/26153/3
>
> ...that anticipated the above rent-seeking nightmares now emerging as the
> Unfriendly AGI known as "The Global Economy", the bubble will grow to
> consume the planet and all life on it.
>
> Invest now in your favorite network effect rent seeking stock and fatten
> yourself up for Tomorrow We Are Assimilated.
>
>
>
>>
>> -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected]
>>
>> On Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 7:59 AM John Rose via AGI 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> The AI bubble runs on a circular flow of liquidity fueled by a massive
>>> amount of debt creation that needs to accelerate for it to not pop. The
>>> debt is created ultimately from central banks which are not part of the
>>> federal government. When those gates begin to close companies are going to
>>> drop left and right like in the dotcom bubble since most have been built
>>> just for the sake of having free money to spend. That is part of the big
>>> problem since the new debt creation steals value from the currency and
>>> causes inflation and countries stop buying US treasuries. But Trump’s plan
>>> is to swap dollars to stablecoins and big tech buys treasuries with those
>>> stablecoins earning yield without paying interest. Is that going to work?
>>> Central banks may pull the plug since they historically run the show unless
>>> they are fully on board integrating with big tech. It’s part of the
>>> experiment since the whole debt based fiat monetary system is a long
>>> running experiment.
>>>
>> *Artificial General Intelligence List *
>> / AGI / see discussions  +
>> participants  +
>> delivery options 
>> Permalink
>> 
>>

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Re: [agi] Re: The AI bubble and four unregulated years

2025-11-08 Thread James Bowery 
On Sat, Nov 8, 2025 at 11:46 AM Matt Mahoney 
wrote:

> In 2000 there was a dot com bubble. But the Internet is here to stay.
>

I'd put it more like Sandhill Road's funding criterion became:

"Tell me how you're going to get customer lock-in via network effects or
get out."

In 2008 there was a real estate and oil bubble. Both are here to stay.

Real estate value is basically land value as a means of positive network
externality capture.  Not much different from the network effect poison I
was warning about in 1982 that became the "here to stay Internet bubble":

https://jimbowery.blogspot.com/2021/10/below-is-something-i-wrote-in-1982.html

Now we are in an AI bubble. AI is here to stay. But there won't be a fast
> takeoff because you can't compare human and machine intelligence.
>

As with the rest of the prior "bubbles that are here to stay", they're only
here to stay so long as my 1992 tax and government spending reforms...

https://forum.policiesforpeople.com/t/a-net-asset-tax-based-on-the-net-present-value-calculation-and-market-democracy/26153/3

...that anticipated the above rent-seeking nightmares now emerging as the
Unfriendly AGI known as "The Global Economy", the bubble will grow to
consume the planet and all life on it.

Invest now in your favorite network effect rent seeking stock and fatten
yourself up for Tomorrow We Are Assimilated.



>
> -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected]
>
> On Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 7:59 AM John Rose via AGI 
> wrote:
>
>> The AI bubble runs on a circular flow of liquidity fueled by a massive
>> amount of debt creation that needs to accelerate for it to not pop. The
>> debt is created ultimately from central banks which are not part of the
>> federal government. When those gates begin to close companies are going to
>> drop left and right like in the dotcom bubble since most have been built
>> just for the sake of having free money to spend. That is part of the big
>> problem since the new debt creation steals value from the currency and
>> causes inflation and countries stop buying US treasuries. But Trump’s plan
>> is to swap dollars to stablecoins and big tech buys treasuries with those
>> stablecoins earning yield without paying interest. Is that going to work?
>> Central banks may pull the plug since they historically run the show unless
>> they are fully on board integrating with big tech. It’s part of the
>> experiment since the whole debt based fiat monetary system is a long
>> running experiment.
>>
> *Artificial General Intelligence List *
> / AGI / see discussions  +
> participants  +
> delivery options 
> Permalink
> 
>

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Re: [agi] Re: The AI bubble and four unregulated years

2025-11-08 Thread John Rose via AGI 
On Saturday, November 08, 2025, at 12:45 PM, Matt Mahoney wrote:
> Now we are in an AI bubble. AI is here to stay. But there won't be a fast 
> takeoff because you can't compare human and machine intelligence.

Many people say that this is the everything bubble and we’re all gonna die. 
World central banks are stacking gold as fast as they can since they know the 
currencies are toast. Elites want 90% of the useless eaters gone while building 
their bunkers and the rest of humanity can act as slaves, albeit happy ones in 
an invisible digital prison that is owned and controlled. Thus you see the push 
for WW3 in Europe as well as other hot spots. When fiat currencies exhaust all 
they can do is go to war by expending what value is left on the military. 
Unless there is a new monetary system to switch to which is possible or some 
formidable leader that can reverse it all some person or 
superintelligence... 3I/ATLAS comes down and cleans up the mess up LOL
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Re: [agi] Re: The AI bubble and four unregulated years

2025-11-08 Thread Matt Mahoney 
In 2000 there was a dot com bubble. But the Internet is here to stay.

In 2008 there was a real estate and oil bubble. Both are here to stay.

Now we are in an AI bubble. AI is here to stay. But there won't be a fast
takeoff because you can't compare human and machine intelligence.

-- Matt Mahoney, [email protected]

On Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 7:59 AM John Rose via AGI  wrote:

> The AI bubble runs on a circular flow of liquidity fueled by a massive
> amount of debt creation that needs to accelerate for it to not pop. The
> debt is created ultimately from central banks which are not part of the
> federal government. When those gates begin to close companies are going to
> drop left and right like in the dotcom bubble since most have been built
> just for the sake of having free money to spend. That is part of the big
> problem since the new debt creation steals value from the currency and
> causes inflation and countries stop buying US treasuries. But Trump’s plan
> is to swap dollars to stablecoins and big tech buys treasuries with those
> stablecoins earning yield without paying interest. Is that going to work?
> Central banks may pull the plug since they historically run the show unless
> they are fully on board integrating with big tech. It’s part of the
> experiment since the whole debt based fiat monetary system is a long
> running experiment.
> *Artificial General Intelligence List *
> / AGI / see discussions  +
> participants  +
> delivery options 
> Permalink
> 
>

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Re: [agi] Re: The AI bubble and four unregulated years

2025-11-08 Thread John Rose via AGI 
The AI bubble runs on a circular flow of liquidity fueled by a massive amount 
of debt creation that needs to accelerate for it to not pop. The debt is 
created ultimately from central banks which are not part of the federal 
government. When those gates begin to close companies are going to drop left 
and right like in the dotcom bubble since most have been built just for the 
sake of having free money to spend. That is part of the big problem since the 
new debt creation steals value from the currency and causes inflation and 
countries stop buying US treasuries. But Trump’s plan is to swap dollars to 
stablecoins and big tech buys treasuries with those stablecoins earning yield 
without paying interest. Is that going to work? Central banks may pull the plug 
since they historically run the show unless they are fully on board integrating 
with big tech. It’s part of the experiment since the whole debt based fiat 
monetary system is a long running experiment.
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Re: [agi] Re: The AI bubble and four unregulated years

2025-11-07 Thread Matt Mahoney 
Agree that Dems are likely to gain power. But I don't think the AI race can
be stopped regardless. China is making huge investments in semiconductors
and is likely to win. The best the US can probably do is to collaborate.
That is more likely once Trump is out of power. Tech companies will support
whichever party is in power. I'm aware that Newsom signed a (useless) AI
safety bill in California and is at 21% odds on Polymarket of winning the
presidency in 2028. Vance is at 30%.

-- Matt Mahoney, [email protected]

On Thu, Nov 6, 2025, 10:46 PM John Rose via AGI 
wrote:

> On Wednesday, November 05, 2025, at 2:00 PM, Bill Hibbard wrote:
>
> The dems may well regain power in 2028, riding on Trump-fatigue. They may
> take control of one or both houses of congress in 2026 but are unlikely to
> have veto-proof majorities, allowing Trump to veto AI regulations.
>
>
> According to Patrick Michael Byrne 72 countries for up to 20 years had
> their elections rigged and flipped left when "Smart" voting machines
> replaced "primitive" voting systems in order to spread democracy.
> Smartmatic and Dominion though Dominion has recently been acquired by a GOP
> official so not sure how that effects it. Naturally Patrick has been
> labelled a conspiracy theorist by wokipedia.
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> 
>

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