Teman2 yang baik,
Sebenarnya dalam jawaban Bung Hanan ada 3 attachment yang dimilis kita
tidak bisa lewat.
Yang ingin mendalami masalah migas kita bisa melihat paper2 IDEE itu di:
http://migas-indonesia.net/index.php?option=com_docmantask=cat_viewgid=166Itemid=42.
Salam
Hok An
nugrohohn schrieb:
- Original Message -
SUBJECT: Energy subsidy may hit Rp 300 trillion next year
FROM: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
TO: AhliKeuangan-Indonesia@yahoogroups.com
DATE: 07-09-2008 4:31 pm
Teman2,
Saya kuatir taksiran dibawah optimis.
Apa benar BBM subsidi diselundupkan?
Bukankan angkutan BBM sudah dipantau pakai GPS?
Barangkali pemakaian BBM subsidi memang tinggi.
Kalau kebutuhan BBM subsidi 2009 50 juta kiloliter dan perbedaan
harga
dengan pasar dunia nanjak ke $0,50/l, kebutuhan subsidi sudah $25M.
Disaat yang sama kebutuhan PLN akan subsidi ikut loncat2, sebab
selain
BBM, batubara ikut2an naik.
Kalau masalah ini di-gusur2 sampai pemilu selesai, kabinet berikutnya
akan mewarisi beban yang berat sekali,
karena solusi2 yang tersisa tinggal schock therapy saja.
Salam
Hok An
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2008/07/09/energy-subsidy-may-hit-rp-300-trillion-next-year-minister.html[1]
Wednesday, July 9, 2008 3:28 PM
Energy subsidy may hit Rp 300 trillion next year: Minister
Aditya Suharmoko , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Wed, 07/09/2008
10:49 AM | Business
The government may spend Rp 300 trillion (US$32.55 billion) on energy
subsidies next year, or close to a 50 percent rise from this year,
assuming oil prices average $140 per barrel, Finance Minister Sri
Mulyani Indrawati said Tuesday.
The country uses the so-called Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) as its
oil
price benchmark, which is usually slightly lower than the
international
benchmarks.
Looking at the trend (in oil prices) until July, we may consider
setting the (ICP) at $140 per barrel, Sri Mulyani said.
Oil prices rose Tuesday with light sweet crude in New York climbing
91
U.S. cents to $142.28 per barrel after slumping $3.92 on Monday to
close
at $141.37 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, AFP reported.
Brent North Sea crude Tuesday climbed $1.09 to $142.96 after dropping
$2.55 to close at $141.87 per barrel on Monday in London. On May 3,
oil
prices in New York struck a record high of $145.85 and in Brent hit
an
all-time peak of $146.69.
For this year, the government has estimated energy subsidy
allocations
-- including fuel and electricity subsidies -- at Rp 200.6 trillion,
assuming the ICP to be $110 per barrel. The estimate is a revision of
an
earlier Rp 187.1 trillion state-budget projection, which set the ICP
at
$95 per barrel.
The fuel subsidy accounts for about 65 percent of the total energy
subsidy.
In contrast, the government for this year sets aside Rp 100 trillion
for
programs dedicated to empower poor households, including food
subsidies.
The House of Representatives has suggested the government to cap the
disparity between subsidized and non-subsidized fuel prices to limit
state spending.
We may cover (fuel subsidy) at a certain amount. The disparity
between
international and domestic (fuel) prices is getting higher -- about
30
percent or 40 percent, Sri Mulyani said.
Critics have said the high disparity between fuel sold domestically
and
on the international market encourages smuggling.
The government on May 24 raised the price of subsidized fuels by an
average 28.7 percent in a bid to reduce spending and help discourage
fuel consumption amid soaring global oil prices.
However, as of June, domestic fuel consumption had passed 16 million
kiloliters, almost half of the government's estimate set in the
revised
2008 budget of 35.5 million kiloliters.
Anggito Abimanyu, the finance ministry's head of fiscal policy, said
earlier total fuel consumption this year might reach 41 million
kiloliters as people usually consumed more fuel in the year's second
semester.
We see (fuel) consumption is irresistible with the high disparity,
Sri
Mulyani said.
Despite high oil prices and high fuel consumption, the current
administration has promised it will not raise the prices of
subsidized
fuels until its term ends in 2009, when the country holds general
elections.
Sri Mulyani said high oil prices might affect Indonesia's economic
growth.
The risk to economic growth will be higher. We will maintain (the
estimate for this year's economic growth) at 6.2 percent, but it will
likely be below that, she said.
The economy is expected to grow by between 6 and 6.4 percent in 2008.
It
grew 6.4 last year
Links:
--
[1]
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2008/07/09/energy-subsidy-may-hit-rp-300-trillion-next-year-minister.html
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
