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http://news.independent.com.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=108362

Arafat will gamble on Israel's 'war' failing again

By Robert Fisk

05 December 2001

Ariel Sharon provided one bright moment in the darkness for Osama bin
Laden 
when he declared his "war on terror". George Bush snr managed to keep
Israel 
out of the 1991 Gulf War and preserve his Islamic alliance. But George
Bush 
jnr must be cursing Israel's arrival on the American crusade against 
"terrorism". Angry enough when Mr Sharon first compared Israel's losses
at 
the hands of Palestinian suicide bombers with America's murdered
thousands on 
September 11th, the US President has no reason to thank the Israeli
Prime 
Minister for his latest rhetoric.
Yasser Arafat is not Osama bin Laden, however much the Israelis try to 
persuade the world otherwise; he is much less efficient, infinitely more

corrupt and very definitely no threat to civilisation.
So will Mr Arafat "crack down on terror" – how easily we use Israel's
words 
– or are the Palestinians now doomed to lose even the hope of
statehood in 
Israel's latest retaliation? The fact that the suicide bombings were the

revenge of Hamas for Israel's latest murder of a Hamas leader – in its
turn 
revenge for other Hamas bombings which were themselves revenge for
Israeli 
attacks – makes no difference to "Palestine's" predicaments. Israel is
lining 
up Mr Arafat and the Palestinian Authority and its various security
mafia as 
the centre of all evil, of "terrorism", "mindless violence", etc. Mr
Arafat 
is now under orders to arrest his own people not only from the Sharon 
government but from the European Union as well as the United States. And
as usual, we are forgetting recent history. Hamas, the principal target 
of the Sharon "war on terror", was originally sponsored by Israel. Back
in 
the 1980s, when Mr Arafat was the "super-terrorist" and Hamas was a
pleasant 
little Muslim charity, albeit venomous in its opposition to Israel, the 
Israeli government encouraged its members to build mosques in Gaza. Some

genius in the Israeli Army decided that there was no better way of 
undermining the PLO's nationalist ambitions in the occupied territories
than 
by promoting Islam. Even after the Oslo agreement, during a row with Mr 
Arafat, senior Israeli Army Officers publicly announced that they were 
chatting to Hamas officials. And when Israel illegally deported hundreds
of 
Hamas men to Lebanon in 1992, it was one of their leaders, hearing that
I was 
travelling to Israel, who offered me Shimon Peres' home telephone number
from 
his contact book.
The Israelis are now re-preaching the lesson that Yizhak Rabin once
tried to 
teach Mr Arafat: that true statesmanship might entail the risk of civil
war; 
that just as the Israeli government once had to shoot down the wild men
of 
Irgun, so Mr Arafat may have to liquidate the men who want to destroy
Israel. 
But this is 2001, not 1948. A Palestinian civil war may be to Israel's 
advantage – it could perhaps choose a new Palestinian leader – but
it will 
be no gain to Mr Arafat and certainly not to the Palestinians. In any
case, 
if Israel really wanted to sting Mr Arafat into vanquishing his internal

opposition, it would not be bombing and destroying his police stations
and 
security posts, the very instruments he needs to "crack down" on
Israel's 
Palestinian enemies.
Mr Arafat knows this all too well. Even when he ran his repulsive little

statelet in Lebanon he killed only those Palestinian militants who
personally 
threatened him. He is a patient man, a guerrilla leader who knows that a

little more delay will buy time in which his enemies can make mistakes.
How 
soon before Mr Sharon's latest "war on terror" bathes Israel's hands in 
Palestinian blood? How soon before the Americans realise that their
adventure 
in Afghanistan may unravel because of Israel's unrequested support for 
Washington's "war on terror"? Today's front-page headlines in Pakistan
tell 
of Israeli missiles on Gaza rather than the fate of Osama bin Laden.
Besides, Mr Arafat knows, even if too many journalists buy the Israeli
line, 
that Israel's "war on terror" always fails. Mr Sharon waged a "war on
terror" 
in Lebanon in 1982 which ended in a war crime – the massacre of
Palestinians 
in the Sabra and Chatila refugee camps. Since 1970 Israel has used F16s,

tanks and missiles on thousands of occasions to attack the Palestinians
in 
Lebanon, all for its "war on terror". It's been doing the same for
months in 
Gaza and the West Bank. It doesn't work. The Arabs have lost their fear
of 
the Israelis and once fear is lost it can never be reinjected. Mr
Sharon's 
"war on terror" was thus lost the moment it began. As the next suicide 
bombings will prove yet again.
So Mr Arafat will sit it out. He will gamble on a simple equation: that 
America's anger with him will eventually be outweighed by America's 
embarrassment with Mr Sharon, that the "war on terror" in Afghanistan
will be 
endangered by Sharon's "war on terror" in Palestine. Mr Arafat knows
that in 
the end, the Jewish lobby not withstanding, American lives count for
more 
than Israeli lives; the only flaw in his argument is the assumption,
even if 
America can ultimately control its Middle Eastern ally, that Israel can 
control Mr Sharon. 

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