HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK ---------------------------
> ___________________________________________________________________ > > > S T R A T F O R > > THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY > > http://www.stratfor.com > ___________________________________________________________________ > > 21 March 2002 > > THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT - FULL TEXT FOR MEMBERS ONLY > ___________________________________________________________________ > > Bombing in Peru Sends Message to Bush > > Summary > > A bombing in Lima, Peru, just days before a summit between Andean > leaders and U.S. President George W. Bush was likely the work of > Peruvian insurgent group Shining Path. The incident may have been > meant to warn the United States about deepening its military > involvement in the region. The move could easily backfire, > however, because Andean leaders may be more willing to support a > larger U.S. military presence following the violence. > > Analysis > > A car bomb exploded at 10:45 p.m. local time on March 20, less > than 100 meters from the U.S. Embassy in Lima, Peru. The > explosion came less than three days before U.S. President George > W. Bush is due to arrive in Lima for a 17-hour meeting with the > vice president of Ecuador and the presidents of Peru and Bolivia. > > No one has taken credit for the bombing yet, but Peruvian and > U.S. officials in Lima believe the leftist insurgent group > Shining Path was probably responsible. With the Bush > administration preparing to expand the U.S. military presence in > Colombia and other Andean countries, it is possible the bomb was > intended as a message that U.S. citizens and assets will become > political targets if Washington deepens its engagement in the > Andean region's war against drugs and insurgents. > > The incident will intensify discussion at the Andean summit over > ways to crack down on the growing links between insurgent groups > and the drug trade. Rather than dissuade Washington from becoming > more involved in the region, the bombing could in fact solidify > support among Andean and U.S. leaders for greater and more > immediate engagement in Colombia and neighboring countries. > > Nine people were killed and more than 40 injured when a car > packed with 110 pounds of explosives blew up. A group of > policemen had become suspicious and were attempting to evacuate > the area when the detonation occurred, Peru's Interior Minister > Fernando Rospigliosi said March 21. The explosion rocked Lima's > El Polo commercial center, destroying nearby shops and cars. The > U.S. Embassy, located across a wide street from the commercial > center, was not damaged. > > The resurgent Maoist group Shining Path is the most likely > suspect behind the bombing. > > Shining Path and another leftist group, the Tupac Amaru > Revolutionary Movement, were together responsible for an > estimated 30,000 deaths and $25 billion in financial losses in > Peru between 1980 and the mid-1990s, after which Shining Path was > almost completely wiped out. However, the group has been forging > a comeback during the past two years. > > It is building its revival on the back of the drug trade, > adopting a growth model used successfully by Colombia's largest > guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia > (FARC). In fact Peruvian, Colombian and U.S. officials believe > Shining Path has established links with Colombian drug > traffickers trying to increase coca and poppy cultivation in Peru > and that Shining Path and the FARC have developed links with each > other as well. > > This model fits Shining Path like a glove. What remains of the > group operates primarily in remote areas of Peru where central > government authority is least prevalent -- a situation conducive > for the cultivation and trafficking of coca and poppy plants. > > As Shining Path's involvement in the drug trade has grown, so too > have the number of violent conflicts with the government. In what > could have been a foreshadowing of the March 20 bombing, > officials from the government's anti-terrorism unit captured two > Shining Path members last November who had architectural plans in > their possession. The arrests led local officials to allege that > Shining Path was planning to bomb the U.S. Embassy. > > Local officials immediately pointed to Shining Path as the top > suspect in the latest incident. Hector John Caro, a former chief > of Peru's anti-terrorism police, told Reuters the car bombing has > all the markings of Shining Path's near-constant attacks of a > decade ago. Though there are other potential suspects -- ranging > from professional drug traffickers to groups or individuals > embittered against the United States over Washington's treatment > of now-imprisoned Peruvian spy chief Vladimiro Montesinos -- none > has a stronger combination of motivation and capability than > Shining Path. > > STRATFOR wrote Feb. 6 that "Shining Path's resurgence likely will > lead to an increase in rural and urban terrorist actions in Peru > during the next one or two years, creating unexpected security > headaches for (Peruvian) President Alejandro Toledo." We likely > saw the beginning of the process March 20. > > But the headache is not Toledo's alone. Considering the timing of > the explosion, the message was meant for a wider audience, > including other Andean leaders and, more specifically, for Bush. > > The attack may have been exclusively a Shining Path action meant > to discourage the United States from becoming more deeply > involved in Peru as it ramps up activity in Colombia. There has > been rampant speculation in the Peruvian press that the U.S. > military will expand its presence in northern Peru along the > Colombian border. Shining Path members may fear that such a > presence will be used against them as well, frustrating their > attempts to expand coca and poppy production. > > Another possibility is that the FARC sub-contracted the bombing > to Shining Path to deliver an even wider message: that it is > ready to inflict serious pain on the United States -- not only in > Colombia but also elsewhere in South America -- if Washington > wades deeper into Colombia's civil war. > > This makes the Andean summit one to watch. Colombian President > Andres Pastrana will be seeking greater personal commitment from > Bush to support Bogota in its war against the FARC. Bush, > meanwhile, may look to capitalize on the Lima bombing to sell his > plan for a greater U.S. military presence in the region and to > make his case for erasing the distinction between the drug war > and the war against terrorism. > > Cooperation with Washington is a trickier issue for other Andean > leaders, however. Although the leaders of Bolivia, Peru and > Ecuador are generally eager for more aid to combat the drug > trade, domestic opposition to a larger U.S. military footprint is > significant. But this week's bombing may soften that opposition - > - at least in violence-weary Peru -- opening the door for a > greater U.S. presence in the region. > ___________________________________________________________________ --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9617B Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
