HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------- Stratfor Syria's Double Game Syrian President Bashar Assad met July 17 with a senior North Korean official in Damascus. One would expect such a meeting to irritate Washington, but rather than a sign that Syria will not support a U.S. campaign against Iraq, Syria's gesture may be meant to save face by showing a continued alliance with so-called "axis of evil" states. Analysis Syrian President Bashar Assad met July 17 with North Korean presidential envoy Kim Jong Nam, the No. 2 official in the Pyongyang regime, to discuss developing closer ties. The meeting followed Syria's announcement earlier this week that Damascus also seeks closer links with Baghdad. Against the backdrop of the war on terrorism and a potential U.S. campaign against Iraq, cozying up to North Korea and Iraq -- both included in the Bush administration's "axis of evil" -- may seem a disastrous move. But back-channel talks between Damascus and Washington have been going on for some time, and an agreement to continue working against al Qaeda likely is locked down. It even is possible that, despite claims to the contrary, Syria has agreed to back Washington's moves against Iraq. By meeting with Kim and publicly asserting friendship with Iraq, Damascus may be trying to veil an agreement with the United States. Syria would be a frontline state in a U.S. military campaign against Iraq, and Washington easily could mistake its talks with North Korea and Iraq as siding with the enemy. Syria could not survive a U.S. military campaign, if Washington deemed such a move necessary -- but Damascus also needs to maintain working ties with countries like Iran, Iraq and North Korea. Therefore, its leaders are playing a delicate game. The meeting with Kim is not unusual. Syria and North Korea are longtime allies, and Pyongyang has been selling Scud-C missiles to Damascus since 1993, according to the Washington-based Federation of American Scientists. The meeting with Assad -- scheduled well in advance -- was part of a regional tour by Kim, who also recently visited Indonesia and Libya. Even so, any events in Damascus just now will be noted by planners and policymakers in Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as well as by the United States and Europe. Syria has been cooperating with the United States in the battle against al Qaeda. Citing an unnamed U.S. diplomatic source, London-based Arabic daily Al Hayat reported July 15 that the Bush administration appreciated the support Damascus has lent. Nevertheless, demonstrating too much cooperation with Washington could be politically dangerous for the young Syrian president. In a time of war, both domestic and regional rivals will rise to exploit the opportunities that uncertainty creates. Several factions in Damascus might pose a threat to Assad once a U.S. attack on Iraq got under way. Although the government recently launched a crackdown -- in the guise of an anti-corruption campaign -- to neutralize potential rivals, cooperation with Washington, for instance, could be used as a pretext to challenge Assad's competence and loyalty to the state. During a May interview with Jordanian Arabic daily Al Majd, Assad said Syrian-Iraqi cooperation was at its best and that officials were concentrating on their political ties. Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz also has visited Syria several times in recent months to gauge the government's support and remind Damascus of its allegiance. Earlier this month, Assad also met with Iranian judicial chief Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi to discuss cooperation between their countries, Arabicnews.com reported July 15. By meeting with Kim, touting close ties to Iraq and receiving Iranian dignitaries, Damascus keeps everyone guessing: Has it cut a deal with Washington over Iraq or not? So far, Syria has denied rumors that it has, and the visits by officials from all of the "axis of evil" states could suggest Damascus is solidly in their camp. More likely, however, Syria is keeping up appearances while continuing back-channel talks with the United States. If officials in Washington were worried about Syria buying arms from North Korea or funneling weapons to Iraq, Kim's visit would be a point of criticism for U.S. officials, but so far Washington has said little about it. The United States might be waiting calmly to see what comes of the meeting -- but it also may be sure nothing will. --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.bacIlu Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================ |
