Re: efficient markets ...

2002-08-03 Thread Koushik Sekhar
How many of you (of those in thes US) who believe in efficient markets are investing in US equities now and have invested in them in the last 2 years ? If your answer is NO then why are you not investing in US equities because if markets are efficient all bad news must be priced into the stock pr

Re: cultural cues and queues

2002-08-03 Thread fabio guillermo rojas
Alternative hypothesis: people will accept money only if other people are accepting money. Fred - next weekend, I want you recruit a person who will get in line before you. When you arrive, announce that you will give $20 to somebody who will let you cut in line. That planted person will then ac

Re: efficient markets ...

2002-08-03 Thread Fred Foldvary
> If the markets are efficient, does it mean that you can buy at any time, > using any methods and you will still make the same returns as somebody else > who is smarter ? > Koushik No. Because some assets and asset groups are riskier than others, and higher risks get higher returns. Also, a

Re: efficient markets ...

2002-08-03 Thread Fred Foldvary
--- Chris MACRAE <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I would like to suggest to you that there are 2 poles of corporate > performance which are often opposite: > -a company's last 90 day's performance as a transaction-taker > -a company's performance as a sustainable system for relationship-making With

cultural cues and queues

2002-08-03 Thread Fred Foldvary
A while back we discussed the issue of queues, and why it is not usual to offer to pay those ahead to switch places. My hypothesis was that this was due to culture, and the alternative hypothesis was that it was due to economic ignorance. I conducted an experiment on Saturday, August 3, at my loc

RE: efficient markets ...

2002-08-03 Thread Michael Etchison
Chris MACRAE: >Whilst this fundamental contextual bias in "what corporate performance is defined to be" rules, the chances of markets being efficient dwindles absolutely below zero.< I used to do criminal defense work, so I have some experience with people whose time horizon is very, very short,

Re: efficient markets ...

2002-08-03 Thread Chris MACRAE
- Original Message - From: "Fred Foldvary" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: 03 August 2002 14:27 PM Subject: Re: efficient markets ... > > As a mathematician, I think the whole notion of efficient markets is very > > non-transparent, bordering on meaningless or do I mea

Re: efficient markets ...

2002-08-03 Thread Fred Foldvary
> As a mathematician, I think the whole notion of efficient markets is very > non-transparent, bordering on meaningless or do I mean contextless? > The first question that would need to be answered to prove me wrong is to > explain what time-span (transactional or relationship) governs your model.

Re: efficient markets ...

2002-08-03 Thread Chris MACRAE
As a mathematician, I think the whole notion of efficient markets is very non-transparent, bordering on meaningless or do I mean contextless?   The first question that would need to be answered to prove me wrong is to explain what time-span (transactional or relationship) governs your model.