The NYT article on this
Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks
By CARL HULSE
ASHINGTON, July 28 The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on
Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online
futures trading market, disclosed
In a message dated 7/29/03 4:05:03 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to
monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment.
This is typical of the statist-liberal news media--starting a news article
with an ad homenim attack.
DBL
This story has even made it to Technology news site Slashdot
(www.slashdot.org)
http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=03/07/29/1249247mode=threadtid=126tid=
95
Perhaps you'd like to contribute to the discussion there to fight against
the prevailing negative mood.
Hamish
-Original Message-
--- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
I'd wager
$10 that Davis will be recalled--and then win reelection.
David
Does the recall law permit the incumbent to be on the ballot for the new
governor if he loses the recall?
Fred
=
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
--- fabio guillermo rojas [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
It seems that optimal strategy for Democrats is to choose one candidate
and pay off the others not to run, and hope the GOP vote is split.
Fabio
If Governor Davis is recalled, the election for the next California
governor will be won by a
Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) blogged about the DARPA project controversy:
THE PENTAGON WANTS TO USE A FUTURES MARKET
http://nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29TERR.html to predict terror
attacks. Although this is getting a lot of criticism (mostly from
members of Congress who, I suspect,
All of the criticism seems based on the betting on events, not on the
use of conditional markets for developing policy. Wonder what they'll say
when they figure that bit out
On Mon, 28 Jul 2003, Robin Hanson wrote:
FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been
On Tue, 29 Jul 2003, Jeffrey Rous wrote:
I seem to remember looking at the Iowa Electronic Market right before
the 2000 election and noticing that it had Gore winning the
winner-take-all and Bush getting a higher percentage of the vote. And
I remember thinking that this was just an
More likely than not they'll say nothing and the story will quietly go away...
conveniently relieving people like reporters and senators from the need to admit they
spoke out about something they didn't have much, if any, comprehension of.
All of the criticism seems based on the betting on
Hmmm...seems like like DARPA's going to kill the project.
Original Message
Subject:[wta-talk] Futures Market to Predict Terror Canned by Pentagon
Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2003 12:13:32 -0400
From: Hughes, James [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To:
On 2003-07-28, Robin Hanson uttered:
FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been
denounced by two senators:
http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html
It's still a nice plan. Much like Brunner's delphi pools in Shockwave
Rider. (BTW, if anybody ever
Schwartzeneger will not run, so Riordan, a Republican 2002 primary-election
candidate, will run, and is most likely to win the plurality race.
Negative ads knocked him off the general election in 2002, but will not
work so easily this time.
What's the predicted outcome?
Fabio
=
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