troversies.
---
http://hanson.gmu.edu/PAMpress.pdf
The Informed Press Favored the Policy Analysis Market
by Robin Hanson, March 2005
The Policy Analysis Market (PAM), otherwise known as ``terrorism futures,"
burst into public view in a firestorm of condemna
cause of reduction of income
redistribution and positive externalities from science and art.
Yes the positional negative externality might be countered by positive
externalities such as in innovation. But what are the chances that these
just counter-balance?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED]
to my thoughts on this will be found at:
http://hanson.gmu.edu/openhide.html
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
his is done for positional
reasons, instead of avoiding social unrest/revolution or simple
opportunism. Are there any clear examples of goods regulated or taxed for
positional reasons?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
tails about yesterday. But if you wait a few years, I'm
sure the academics who did the previous studies will extend them to include
this new data.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA
- are there any other
institutions that on average do better? So far direction comparisons
between markets and other institutions in the field have favored
markets. And real and play money have come out about the same. But the
jury is still out.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gm
At 5:33 EST I wrote:
Tradesports, IEM, Betfair give Kerry a 71 to 74% chance to win.
Tradesports now gives Bush a 62% of winning.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993
Tradesports, IEM, Betfair give Kerry a 71 to 74% chance to win.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
(print, radio, Internet,
> >satellite TV, etc.) for financing, recruitment and coordination.
>
> None of these have obviously improved the abilities of insurgency
> *relative* to anti-insurgency, as far as I can see. Both sides have
> better weapons, propaganda, and communication
munications technologies (print, radio, Internet,
satellite TV, etc.) for financing, recruitment and coordination.
None of these have obviously improved the abilities of insurgency
*relative* to anti-insurgency, as far as I can see. Both sides have
better weapons, propaganda, and communications.
R
On 5/25/2004, Wei Dai wrote:
...The benefits of colonization have decreased relative to the costs.
... occupation is no longer profitable because of
improvements in insurgency techniques.
This is important if true. Which techniques of today were not
available 200 years ago?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL
Since the precedent has been set, let me advertise my new paper:
---
http://hanson.gmu.edu/biashelp.pdf
Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy
by Robin Hanson and Ryan Oprea, March 2004
es have a certain plausibility. But you'd need to argue that
the huge increase in IQ that has been documented during this last century
isn't really an increase in intelligence. And doing that makes it harder
to take Jewish IQ as relevant data.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.
. And in fact on
average economists are probably less trustworthy partners in various ways.
We see this in various experiments comparing economists to others.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax V
tand than, say, string theory, or even electromagnetism.
I'm just drawing on personal experience here; you may be an exception.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
most of them more easily.
Of course since many other topic overlap in complex ways with economics
topics, this raises the questions of what exactly are the cues that
our evolved minds use to figure out which topics they should "act dumb" on.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.g
ining or refuting such an
argument?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Profess
said, in particular what theoretical arguments they
offer. The immediate reason I wondered is that two theory arguments
occurred to me, and I wanted to see what was the quality of the previous
arguments.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George
?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
l scales relevant here.
The costs of colonizing should fall drastically in a million years.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
more productive than 11 people trying to plow with hand tools. I'm
not sure why taht's so hard to believe.
Also possible, but perhaps surprising. 11 people are lots clever
than one. So the returns to being clever must be very low here.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.e
rve of laborers is low and
fat. The demand curve may rise to great heights, but eventually if falls
down to meet such a low supply curve.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-99
assumption the opportunity cost of humans is roughly the cost to
feed them.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
ve as much as ten people, or is it that they can eat foods that are
cheaper than food humans can live on?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
work, at least for certain important tasks, than
ten humans? Or is it just not true that horses are used in subsistence
farming?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326
further
than our own, it should expand out to colonize the universe at a relatively
rapid pace. Either this is wrong, or the nearest life at anything like
our level must be very very far away.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason U
26 matches
Mail list logo
