At 5:33 EST Robin wrote:
Tradesports, IEM, Betfair give Kerry a 71 to 74% chance to win.
At 10:02 EST, Robin wrote:
Tradesports now gives Bush a 62% of winning.
Doesn't this big swing undermine the theory that markets are
consistently good predictors of elections?
--Robert Book
[EMAIL
Well the betting markets made a big reversal last night, from up to almost
75% in favor of Kerry, now down to a 5% chance for Kerry (even that looks
too high, so I finally made my first election bet).
Of course we should expect this sort of reversal at least 1/4 of the time,
so one can't be too
In a message dated 11/3/04 6:54:43 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
In the end the important question is comparative - are there any other
institutions that on average do better? So far direction comparisons
between markets and other institutions in the field have favored
markets. And real and
I wrote:
... So far direction comparisons between markets and other institutions
in the field have favored markets. ...
[EMAIL PROTECTED] responded:
In this case, were the markets closer than the polls taken right before the
election? Were they closer than the exit polls?
I don't know the details
