Re: another use for idea futures

2004-10-19 Thread Peter C. McCluskey
[EMAIL PROTECTED] (Wei Dai) writes: To handle the case when it's not good enough to assume that p(x) is flat in the range -.02n to .02n, for example when one candidate has a clear lead, we can instead assume that p(x) has a normal distribution, and find the normal distribution that best fits the

Re: another use for idea futures

2004-10-19 Thread Wei Dai
On Tue, Oct 19, 2004 at 11:32:16AM -0700, Peter C. McCluskey wrote: I think it's harder than this to adequately model p(x), because it acts differently in close races because the incentive for the losing side to cheat is highest when it's most likely to change the result. Yes, to be more