Which Side Does The Informed Media Favor?

2005-03-19 Thread Robin Hanson
. --- http://hanson.gmu.edu/PAMpress.pdf The Informed Press Favored the Policy Analysis Market by Robin Hanson, March 2005 The Policy Analysis Market (PAM), otherwise known as ``terrorism futures, burst into public view in a firestorm of condemnation on July 28, 2003

Hide from friends, but not from enemies

2004-11-21 Thread Robin Hanson
on this will be found at: http://hanson.gmu.edu/openhide.html Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

Re: Now Bush to win 1.5:1

2004-11-03 Thread Robin Hanson
other institutions that on average do better? So far direction comparisons between markets and other institutions in the field have favored markets. And real and play money have come out about the same. But the jury is still out. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant

Re: Now Bush to win 1.5:1

2004-11-03 Thread Robin Hanson
about yesterday. But if you wait a few years, I'm sure the academics who did the previous studies will extend them to include this new data. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-

Kerry to win, 2.5 to 1

2004-11-02 Thread Robin Hanson
Tradesports, IEM, Betfair give Kerry a 71 to 74% chance to win. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

Is Manipulation Good?

2004-03-24 Thread Robin Hanson
Since the precedent has been set, let me advertise my new paper: --- http://hanson.gmu.edu/biashelp.pdf Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy by Robin Hanson and Ryan Oprea, March 2004

Re: why aren't we smarter?

2003-12-07 Thread Robin Hanson
plausibility. But you'd need to argue that the huge increase in IQ that has been documented during this last century isn't really an increase in intelligence. And doing that makes it harder to take Jewish IQ as relevant data. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor

Re: why aren't we smarter?

2003-11-30 Thread Robin Hanson
economists are probably less trustworthy partners in various ways. We see this in various experiments comparing economists to others. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326

Re: why aren't we smarter?

2003-11-26 Thread Robin Hanson
the questions of what exactly are the cues that our evolved minds use to figure out which topics they should act dumb on. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326 FAX: 703

What's Wrong With Blood Feuds?

2003-09-25 Thread Robin Hanson
? Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

Re: Horses and Subsistence Farming

2003-08-22 Thread Robin Hanson
by assumption the opportunity cost of humans is roughly the cost to feed them. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

Re: Horses and Subsistence Farming

2003-08-22 Thread Robin Hanson
of laborers is low and fat. The demand curve may rise to great heights, but eventually if falls down to meet such a low supply curve. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326

Re: Horses and Subsistence Farming (fwd)

2003-08-22 Thread Robin Hanson
than 11 people trying to plow with hand tools. I'm not sure why taht's so hard to believe. Also possible, but perhaps surprising. 11 people are lots clever than one. So the returns to being clever must be very low here. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor

Re: Economics and E.T.s (fwd)

2003-08-22 Thread Robin Hanson
. The costs of colonizing should fall drastically in a million years. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

Re: Horses and Subsistence Farming

2003-08-21 Thread Robin Hanson
as ten people, or is it that they can eat foods that are cheaper than food humans can live on? Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323