Re: California Recall

2003-07-29 Thread Fred Foldvary
--- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 I'd wager 
 $10 that Davis will be recalled--and then win reelection. 
 David

Does the recall law permit the incumbent to be on the ballot for the new
governor if he loses the recall?
Fred 


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Re: California Recall

2003-07-29 Thread Fred Foldvary
--- fabio guillermo rojas [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 It seems that optimal strategy for Democrats is to choose one candidate
 and pay off the others not to run, and hope the GOP vote is split.
 Fabio 

If Governor Davis is recalled, the election for the next California
governor will be won by a plurality.  With many candidates on the ballot, a
well-organized group can win the plurality even if they have a small total
portion of the vote.  So far, the Democrats do not want to put up a major
candidate because that would increase the vote to recall the incumbent.  So
the optimal strategy for the Democrats would be for Davis to win the recall
election, thus they are avoiding providing an attractive Democrat
alternative.

Fred Foldvary

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Re: California Recall

2003-07-29 Thread Fred Foldvary
Schwartzeneger will not run, so Riordan, a Republican 2002 primary-election
candidate, will run, and is most likely to win the plurality race. 
Negative ads knocked him off the general election in 2002, but will not
work so easily this time.

 What's the predicted outcome? 
 Fabio 


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Re: California Recall

2003-07-28 Thread AdmrlLocke

In a message dated 7/28/03 9:10:55 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

Ok - let's put game theory to the test: what is the normal form of
declaring your candidcay for California governer-game? What's the
predicted outcome? And what would Robin Hanson wager on the answer?

Fabio

If I weren't so broke that I just got a power disconnection notice, I'd wager 
$10 that Davis will be recalled--and then win reelection.  I try never to 
underestimate the ability of the GOP, especially the CA GOP, to snatch defeat 
from the jaws of victory.

David



Re: California Recall

2003-07-28 Thread fabio guillermo rojas


On Mon, 28 Jul 2003, fabio guillermo rojas wrote:
 Ok - let's put game theory to the test: what is the normal form of
 declaring your candidcay for California governer-game? What's the
 predicted outcome? And what would Robin Hanson wager on the answer?
 Fabio 

It seems that optimal strategy for Democrats is to choose one candidate
and pay off the others not to run, and hope the GOP vote is split. The GOP
candidates would like to do the same, but at least 3 candidates (Issa,
Riordan, Simon) seem certain to run, suggesting that they think have a
real chance in a 4 way contest (3 GOP's, 1 Dem). It doesn't seem that Issa
stands a chance against a strong Dem (Feinstein, for ex), and his presence
just splits the GOP vote. I'd venture that Issa can afford to be a
political bad boy. Given that Issa's already started to run, why would any
GOP sign up? They would have to fight Issa and steal centrist Dems. Very
up hill battle.

Fabio