I should note that all my answers are based on 12 years experiencing
advising Berkeley graduate students. I'm not sure how well it translates
to GMU students. Also, my info is 10 years old.
1. Once you are almost ABD, what is the opportunity cost of prolonging
your
graduation one more year, as opposed to just taking your chances at
the job
market right now?
Depends on how long you have been working on your PhD. It used to be
the case that taking more than 4 years to finish an Economics PhD was
seen as a bad sign and going on the market in your 4th year even if your
PhD dissertation wasn't that far along was the normal advice. However,
it is my understanding that the 4 year norm has been breaking down so
that may not be an issue so much anymore. If not I'm sure there is still
some marginal penalty in that people who finish early are considered
better risks than people who take a long time to finish their
dissertation.
2. What is the opportunity cost of trying the job market
prematurely, and,
worse comes to worse, just cancel the job search if nothing appealing
comes
about and then try again the year after that?
The cost of going on the academic market more than once is huge. If you
go on one year and don't get a job you are known as damaged goods
(someone no one wanted last time). Since testing the water and then
pulling out is not the norm this hurts. Avoid doing it at all cost if
you want a good academic job. If you are in some other market where
people aren't watching who is coming out of where every year I doubt it
would matter.
3. What is the benefit, at the margin, of going into the market with
say
one, two, or zero publications? (For instance, perhaps the market is
so
tight that the marginal benefit is not that big--after all, low-tier
institutions may not be that different.)
Having publications before you go on the market can make a very big
difference. At least 10 years ago very few people did and having
published work was taken as a very strong signal. However, most hiring
committees can probably do the math. Five years with two publications
vs. four years with 1. But who are you kidding. You really don't have a
choice. If you go on before your advisor tells you to our don't do it
when your advisor tells you to you are going to get your advisor ticked
off at you and then you will never get a job anyway.
- - Bill Dickens
