Hi Listers, Between comparisons of the proverbial apples & oranges and poor arithmetic, I simply could not ignore claims made to the large ARSList audience that being in the US is more dangerous than being a US contractor or member of the US military in Iraq.
So, my few minutes of exploration online and a few calculations resulted in the following, FWIW. The FBI murder statistics for 2005 were misapplied in the message below to produce a 5.6% US murder rate instead of a 0.0056% murder rate, an error of 3 orders of magnitude. However, being killed by someone is not the only risk here in the US or in Iraq. US forces deaths are reported from all causes, including vehicle and other accidents, not just armed violence. So, consider that US military deaths over the 4.3 years (so far) of the Iraq war total some 3,679 (ref http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_casualties.htm) and wounded total some 25,950. Current troop level is about 150,000. Using the current troop level and averaging the dead and wounded over 4.3 years that we've been in Iraq are conservative assumptions because most of the time we've had fewer personnel there and rates of deaths & woundings are up now above the 4-year average (and seem likely to stay there, though your crystal ball may differ). That results in annual rates of 0.57% for deaths and 4.02% for wounded among military personnel, or 4.59% per year for dead & wounded combined. Here in the US, murder is not the only significant risk. Taking the population of 296,410,404 in the prior email for comparison purposes (available stats seem to be from about the same period as that population), we can look at the relative risks for murder, death and injury in auto accidents (NHTSA statistics), and victimization rates for violent crimes here in the US. murders: 16,692 (FBI stats referenced in prior message) traffic deaths: 43,300 traffic injuries: 2,699,000 violent crime victimization: 1,823,400 (ref http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/4meastab.htm) Combining those risks (yes, this leaves out bathtub slips & falls, occupational injuries, etc. which I'd guess largely correspond to injuries that are not reported among the rates of military wounded) gives a total of 4,582,392 and a combined annual rate of 0.96% of the population. The rate for the US military in Iraq is about 5 times that. Doing the same analysis for US contractors in Iraq, with the same conservative assumptions (current count of US contractors, dead & wounded averaged over 4.3 years) gives an annual death rate of 0.17% and wounded rate of 2.21%, or a combined rate of 2.38%. That is two and a half times the US rate. Now, the joker in this deck is the fact that Remedy contractors here in the US may have a typical exposure to death and injury via automobile but they are probably under-represented among those at higher-than-average risk of death or injury due to crime. That is a guess on my part but if you examine the victim demographics (for example at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/cvict_v.htm), I think you'll agree that the US average is higher than the Remedy contractor average. That means the death & injury rates for Iraq are even higher relative to US Remedy-contractor rates than the multiples above. Peace, Doug Opinions expressed are necessarily mine, not necessarily those of the Mayo Foundation. Original message: Date: Thu, 19 Jul 2007 16:05:14 -0700 From: "Hromyak, Nicholas (DHCS-ITSD)" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: Re: OT JOB posting and Nabble According to http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm There are 5.6 murders per 100,000 capita in the United States. According to the FBI http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_01.html In 2005 there were 16,692 murders in a population of 296,410,404 people in the united states. That's 5.6% murdered in the U.S. Iraq I didn't look up the numbers, I am not even sure where to look, but I think There were over 3,000 soldiers killed with a population (of soldiers) at 130,000 That's 2.3% murdered in Iraq. I would have thought the number in Iraq would be higher. Be safe everyone. ________________________________ From: Action Request System discussion list(ARSList) [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mayfield, Andy L. Sent: Thursday, July 19, 2007 3:13 PM To: arslist@ARSLIST.ORG Subject: Re: JOB posting and Nabble I would imagine that statistically speaking a contractor is almost as likely to be murdered in the USA as he would be in Iraq. I don't know this for a fact, but that would be my guess. Considering in the time our troops have been in Iraq, something like 80,000 people have been murdered in the USA. Andy L. Mayfield Sr. System Operation Specialist Alabama Power Company Office: 8-226-1805 _______________________________________________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE or access ARSlist Archives at www.arslist.org ARSlist:"Where the Answers Are"
