IRAQ: Blix Calls For Tough Inspections Regime, Agrees
With U.S. Draft  
UN WIRE

 The chief U.N. weapons inspector told the Security
Council yesterday that the decision of waging war on
Iraq would be up to the council, not him.  "We've seen
sometimes stated that we hold peace and war in our
hands. We decline that," Hans Blix said.  "Our job is
to report, and the decision of whether there is war or
peace, or reaction, is for the council."

Blix, the head of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification
and Inspection Commission, and International Atomic
Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei spoke
after presenting their views on the U.S. draft
resolution on Iraq's disarmament.  Council members
said they wanted to hear what the two thought of the
new inspection regime crafted by the United States and
United Kingdom.

"Our role is to establish the facts; it’s for the
Security Council to evaluate the facts and determine
whether these facts constitute material breach and
what is the next step to be taken by the council," 
ElBaradei said.  "This is a council prerogative."

Neither official would go into the specifics of the
proposed regime with reporters after briefing the
council, but both said it was important that the
regime be fully backed by the council.

"The intention is in the draft resolution … to give
very clear signals as to what we can do and to avoid
what people have referred to as 'cat-and-mouse' play. 
It is helpful," Blix said.

British Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock said council
members "have a better idea now of what precisely the
inspectors need. ... We will need further time to
absorb what we have heard."  He added, "We're talking
about the clarity of what the resolution says. … We're
talking about the inspectors and the council being at
one about the powers that they have. … This is a
cooperative process, not an adversarial one."

The United States said the inspectors welcomed the
tougher regime outlined in the U.S. draft.  "I think
it's clear from their comments that they welcome that
authority … that will strengthen their hand and give
them the opportunity to do the job the council has
asked them to do. We were pleased with that," said
Deputy Ambassador James Cunningham.

Although France and Russia have circulated their own
drafts on inspections, both of which envision less
stringent inspection regimes, Blix and ElBaradei
limited themselves to comments on the U.S. text since
it is the only one of the three formally before the
council (Jim Wurst, UN Wire, Oct. 29).

Blix said he was pleased the U.S. resolution gives
inspectors the authority to decide the methods for
interviewing Iraqi weapons scientists, but warned that
there would be "great practical difficulties" in
removing the scientists from Iraq for the interviews,
as the U.S. resolution provides. 

A demand in the U.S. resolution for Iraq to provide a
complete declaration of its chemical and biological
weapons capabilities 30 days after the resolution is
approved, however, would not be practical, Blix said. 

He and ElBaradei asked the Security Council members to
help provide intelligence information on which suspect
Iraqi sites inspectors should visit, but also said
inspectors would only report to the council (Julia
Preston, New York Times, Oct. 29).

If the Security Council cannot agree on a new
inspections regime, however, then the inspectors
probably will not return to Iraq, Blix said.  He
indicated that there could be dangers in sending
inspectors to Iraq without the full approval of the
council.  

It is "almost inconceivable" to return inspectors to
Iraq "while half of the council wants us to be there
and the other half of the council does not want us to
be there," Blix said.

"Let me stress that from the inspectors' horizon,
council unity is of the greatest importance," he said.
 "We have difficulty in acting with full strength if
we feel that we do not have the backing" (Allen/Lynch,
Washington Post, Oct. 29).


U.S-French Compromises

Negotiations on the new resolution are still
progressing and might continue into next week, Bush
administration officials at the United Nations said.  

The United States and France have neared a compromise
on the language of the new resolution on Iraq,
according to the New York Times.  U.S. and French
officials have agreed that the resolution would
contain language in its final paragraphs warning Iraq
of  "serious consequences" if it fails to disarm -- a
euphemism for military action, according to the Times
(Preston, New York Times).

France might also agree to a U.S. demand to also
include the phrase "material breach" in the resolution
-- which the United States believes would create the
authority for military action -- but only if the
Security Council has the authority to determine if
Iraq has committed such a breach, according to the Los
Angeles Times.  Much of the debate over the resolution
on Iraq has centered on the phrase, which means a
violation of a resolution, according to the Times.  

France "will accept 'material breach' as long as you
get the words around them right," a council diplomat
said yesterday.  "It's feasible that we could have an
agreement this week."

While the Security Council has found Iraq in material
breach of a number of previous disarmament resolution,
the United States also wants the term to apply to
possible future violations as well, the Times
reported.

"'Material breach' is not a subjective term," said
Richard Grenell, spokesman for the U.S. Mission to the
United Nations.  "It's a statement of fact."

The United States views the phrase as providing a
justification for military action, according to the
Times.  In December 1998, the United States used
similar reasoning as the justification for bombing
Baghdad in response to Iraq blocking inspectors.  U.N.
ambassadors said they had been unaware that the United
States was going to conduct such an action.

"It was a surprise attack," said a Security Council
diplomat.  "Not only on them, but on us."

France wants to prevent another such unannounced
attack, the Times reported.  Since the United States
has pushed hard for "material breach" to be included
in the resolution, France is concerned that it would
also give the United States the ability to determine
on its own if such a breach exists (Farley/Wright, Los
Angeles Times, Oct. 29).


United States To Push For Vote

U.S. President George W. Bush plans to push for a
Security Council vote on a new resolution on Iraq
unless a substantial progress on a new inspections
regime is made by next week, senior White House
officials said yesterday.  U.S. Secretary of State
Colin Powell is expected to push for the vote before
next week, regardless of the level of support for the
resolution, officials said.

While the United States has not set a formal deadline
for a vote on the resolution, Bush is expected to
begin building a coalition for military action against
Iraq if the Security Council is not close to
completing a tough resolution by next week, senior
officials said.

"We're not at the point of giving ultimatums," a
senior White House aide said.  "The president has made
it very clear that we are nearing the end of this
process.  I predict this will be concluded by the end
of next week, but we're not ruling anything out"
(Allen/Lynch, Washington Post).
 
 


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John D. Giorgis                           -                                 
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
"First... to clarify what we stand for: the United States must defend liberty and 
justice because these principles are right and true for all people everywhere.  No 
nation owns these aspirations, and no nation is exempt from them."
                          -US National Security Strategy 2002

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