Re: Prediction time
On 20/02/2008, at 1:33 AM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote: So how many people expect that Fidel Castro won't live out the week? The month? He died four years ago. They have used animatronics on his body since then. The real reason he's been a recluse the last nine months is he was getting really smelly. Charlie Chapman Baxter Maru ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Prediction time
So how many people expect that Fidel Castro won't live out the week? The month? -- Ronn! :) ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Prediction time
Ronn! Blankenship wrote: So how many people expect that Fidel Castro won't live out the week? The month? Is He alive? Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
(Possibly) Living in Amsterdam..
Hi everyone; I'm currently looking at possibly moving to Amsterdam for a game design job, and I believe there are a few people who might be able to help - I am looking for some advice on areas and rents in Amsterdam and general cost of living issues, off-list if you prefer.. AndrewC Who quit a stable low-paid job for a 40% payrise to find his new employers were bad about actually paying people and is now grumpily unemployed. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Prediction time
On 20 Feb 2008 at 1:38, Charlie Bell wrote: On 20/02/2008, at 1:33 AM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote: So how many people expect that Fidel Castro won't live out the week? The month? He died four years ago. They have used animatronics on his body since then. The real reason he's been a recluse the last nine months is he was getting really smelly. *spits his drink over his keyboard* Oooh, I like that one. AndrewC Dawn Falcon ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: malaria in Africa
On 19/02/2008, at 3:44 AM, Dan M wrote: Which misleading comments were those? IIRC, I was told by Charlie that DDT was stopped because it lost its effectiveness. In some areas, that is true, and DDT was replaced with pyrethroids. Resistance to DDT and dieldrin and concern over their environmental impact led to the introduction of other, more expensive insecticides. From the WHO site. The data from South Africa clearly showed that isn't true ...in South Africa, where general spraying was not done to the extent that it was in India. The article you linked to says this: but the World Health Organization refuses to recommend DDT spraying. That's flat out wrong: We must take a position based on the science and the data, said Dr Arata Kochi, Director of WHO’s Global Malaria Programme. “One of the best tools we have against malaria is indoor residual house spraying. Of the dozen insecticides WHO has approved as safe for house spraying, the most effective is DDT.” That quote's from 2006. Facts exist though, 1) Hundreds of thousands of people, if not millions, die each year from Malaria About a million. 2) House spraying with DDT has a recent, multi-year record of reducing these deaths _significantly_ in South Africa True. 3) It is so much cheaper than other techniques. Pyrethroid costs have dropped, and the cost difference is not as significant these days as it used to be (especially as some other chemicals can be used in lower dosage). But granted, it's among the cheapest methods. 4) There are multiple websites that attest to the EU's veiled threats against the use of DDT in Africa http://www.policynetwork.net/main/press_release.php?pr_id=92 http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=19127 http://www.cbgnetwork.org/1180.html While the EU fully acknowledges the urgent need to control malaria in Uganda, we are concerned about the impact the use of DDT might have on the country's exports of food products to the EU, the European Commission's Uganda delegation said last year. Yes, they said that. And they're right to be concerned. Evidence must be produced that indoor spraying is being done in a controlled way, and constant monitoring must be done to ensure that levels of DDT do not increase in the wider environment. Some other facts: DDT is an irritant to insects, and increases their activity in the short term. DDT is not fast-acting, and this increased activity causes more bites in the short term from bed bugs (also disease vectors...). DDT resistance in insects confers selective advantage *even when DDT is removed*, according to recent research ( http://www.scienceinafrica.co.za/2005/july/ddtinsects.htm ). So DDT resistance will continue to spread, whether we use it or not. Let me ask a question I'm guessing you and Charlie find meaningless. Why would I find it meaningless? Please tell me how that sentence is not incredibly patronising. If millions are dying from malaria, and there is a cheap treatment that has been proven, in the last few years, as well as in the past to cut that death rate enormouslyas the international funding to prevent that disease doesn't pour most of the money into the most effective technique, doesn't that indicate that there is something that is considered more important than saving those people's lives? The EU will, of course, do what it wishes right or wrong. Its up to people to make the right case, and with the WHO's backing for targeted indoor spraying including DDT where it is still efficacious, it's up in the air. There's private funding for spraying programs too. As I have said, I support impregnated bed nets (and have done since I was convinced of their efficacy in 1992). I support very strictly monitored spraying indoors in the right dwelling types in areas where there is no resistance, and I have also said that before. But I continue to have reservations about DDT's long-term effectiveness, and the effects higher up the food chain are well documented, despite the recent media downplaying of it and the recent backlash against the DDT reclassification thanks to Silent Spring and Rachel Carson (who, incidentally, *SUPPORTED CONTROLLED INDOOR SPRAYING*). But you're so busy banging on about it you can't even tell when people (well, me) agree with you, and what bits they agree with. Charlie. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Prediction time
So how many people expect that Fidel Castro won't live out the week? The month? -- Ronn! :) He died four years ago. They have used animatronics on his body since then. The real reason he's been a recluse the last nine months is he was getting really smelly. Charlie Chapman Baxter Maru I've been hearing that rumor since he first became ill. does this mean his phones calls to chavez are fake, or is hugo in on it?~) what will happen to cuba now? one of the reasons, bush refuses to normalize relations is because of castro. will i have to wait until bush is out of office, before i can finally visit cuba (before it turns into a decadent, corrupt, capitalist caribbean, country run by mafioso opportunists)? Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it now. http://mobile.yahoo.com/;_ylt=Ahu06i62sR8HDtDypao8Wcj9tAcJ ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Malaria in the world
Here are a few article abstracts from PubMed on mosquito nets and indoor spraying; I have edited for length, indicated by ... and commented or elaborated in []: From Eritrea, 2006: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16635265?ordinalpos=35itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum A steep decline of malaria morbidity and mortality trends in Eritrea between 2000 and 2004: the effect of combination of control methods...This study employed cross-sectional survey to collect data from households, community and health facilities on coverage and usage of Insecticide-Treated Nets (ITNs), Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS), larvicidal activities and malaria case management. Comparative data was obtained from a similar survey carried out in 2001...In the period 2000-2004, approximately 874,000 ITNs were distributed and 13,109 health workers and community health agents were trained on malaria case management. In 2004, approximately 81% households owned at least one net, of which 73% were ITNs and 58.6% of children 0-5 years slept under a net...IRS coverage increased with the combined amount of DDT and Malathion used rising from 6,444 kg, in 2000 to 43,491 kg, in 2004, increasing the population protected from 117,017 to 259,420. Drug resistance necessitated regimen change to chloroquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. During the period, there was a steep decline in malaria morbidity and case fatality by 84% and 40% respectively. Malaria morbidity was strongly correlated to the numbers of ITNs distributed...and the amount (kg) of DDT and Malathion used for IRS... From the Solomon Islands, 2004 [full article avail.]: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15331840?ordinalpos=1itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum The incidence of malaria in Solomon Islands has been decreasing since 1992. The control program used a combination of methods including DDT residual house spraying and insecticide-treated mosquito nets. To determine how much each method contributed to malaria control, data were analyzed on monthly incidence and on control activities for 41 of 110 malaria zones over the same time period (January 1993 to August 1999). After correction for endogeneity, then spraying, insecticide treatment of nets, and education about malaria are all independently associated with reduction in incident cases of malaria or fever, while larviciding with temephos is not. The evidence suggests that although impregnated bed nets cannot entirely replace DDT spraying without substantial increase in incidence, their use permits reduced DDT spraying. The paper shows that non-experimental data can be used to infer causal links in epidemiology, provided that instrumental variables are available to correct for endogeneity. From a trial of bifenthrin treated mosquito nets in India (2005, full article avail.): http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15713980?ordinalpos=1itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVAbstractPlusDrugs1 The main rural malaria vector Anopheles culicifacies has developed resistance to dichloro diphenyl trichloroethane (DDT), hexachloro cyclo hexane (HCH) and malathion in the state of Haryana in northern India. An alternative synthetic pyrethroid insecticide bifenthrin was therefore evaluated on mosquito nets against anopheline and culicine mosquitoes, in two villages...Two formulations of bifenthrin, suspension concentrate (SC) and micro-emulsion (ME) were compared with micro-capsule suspension (CS) of lambdacyhalothrin. The impact of three doses of bifenthrin (10, 25 and 50 mg/m(2)) [also untreated controls]...Efficacy of treated nets on mosquito density was assessed by calculating mosquito entry rate, immediate mortality, delayed mortality and excito-repellency to the insecticides...Bioassays on treated nets against A. culicifacies recorded 100 per cent mortality up to tenth fortnight for all the doses of impregnation with bifenthrin (SC and ME) and lambdacyhalothrin (CS). Ring-net bioassays against An. culicifacies showed median knock-down time between 3.1 to 11.4 min. Behavioural indices...reduction in entry rates of anopheline and culicine mosquitoes into the rooms with treated nets compared to control indicated good efficacy...Indoor (immediate) mortality of mosquitoes with bifenthrin ME formulation was relatively lower compared to SC fomulation of bifenthrin and based on delayed mortility and continued susceptibility in bioassays, bifenthrin ME at the rate of 10 mg/m(2) dose was found suitable for the impregnation of mosquito nets for phase III trial. Another 2005 from India; this includes indoor DDT spraying as one branch: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16134977?ordinalpos=29itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum A field trial was carried out...on the efficacy of mosquito nets treated with a tablet formulation of deltamethrin (K-O TAB) against malaria vectors. Treated nets were used in one village,
Resending: Malaria in the world
Hmm, I've waited 5 minutes and no post, so I'm trying again- Here are a few article abstracts from PubMed on mosquito nets and indoor spraying; I have edited for length, indicated by ... and commented or elaborated in []: From Eritrea, 2006: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16635265?ordinalpos=35itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum A steep decline of malaria morbidity and mortality trends in Eritrea between 2000 and 2004: the effect of combination of control methods...This study employed cross-sectional survey to collect data from households, community and health facilities on coverage and usage of Insecticide-Treated Nets (ITNs), Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS), larvicidal activities and malaria case management. Comparative data was obtained from a similar survey carried out in 2001...In the period 2000-2004, approximately 874,000 ITNs were distributed and 13,109 health workers and community health agents were trained on malaria case management. In 2004, approximately 81% households owned at least one net, of which 73% were ITNs and 58.6% of children 0-5 years slept under a net...IRS coverage increased with the combined amount of DDT and Malathion used rising from 6,444 kg, in 2000 to 43,491 kg, in 2004, increasing the population protected from 117,017 to 259,420. Drug resistance necessitated regimen change to chloroquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. During the period, there was a steep decline in malaria morbidity and case fatality by 84% and 40% respectively. Malaria morbidity was strongly correlated to the numbers of ITNs distributed...and the amount (kg) of DDT and Malathion used for IRS... From the Solomon Islands, 2004 [full article avail.]: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15331840?ordinalpos=1itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum The incidence of malaria in Solomon Islands has been decreasing since 1992. The control program used a combination of methods including DDT residual house spraying and insecticide-treated mosquito nets. To determine how much each method contributed to malaria control, data were analyzed on monthly incidence and on control activities for 41 of 110 malaria zones over the same time period (January 1993 to August 1999). After correction for endogeneity, then spraying, insecticide treatment of nets, and education about malaria are all independently associated with reduction in incident cases of malaria or fever, while larviciding with temephos is not. The evidence suggests that although impregnated bed nets cannot entirely replace DDT spraying without substantial increase in incidence, their use permits reduced DDT spraying. The paper shows that non-experimental data can be used to infer causal links in epidemiology, provided that instrumental variables are available to correct for endogeneity. From a trial of bifenthrin treated mosquito nets in India (2005, full article avail.): http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15713980?ordinalpos=1itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVAbstractPlusDrugs1 The main rural malaria vector Anopheles culicifacies has developed resistance to dichloro diphenyl trichloroethane (DDT), hexachloro cyclo hexane (HCH) and malathion in the state of Haryana in northern India. An alternative synthetic pyrethroid insecticide bifenthrin was therefore evaluated on mosquito nets against anopheline and culicine mosquitoes, in two villages...Two formulations of bifenthrin, suspension concentrate (SC) and micro-emulsion (ME) were compared with micro-capsule suspension (CS) of lambdacyhalothrin. The impact of three doses of bifenthrin (10, 25 and 50 mg/m(2)) [also untreated controls]...Efficacy of treated nets on mosquito density was assessed by calculating mosquito entry rate, immediate mortality, delayed mortality and excito-repellency to the insecticides...Bioassays on treated nets against A. culicifacies recorded 100 per cent mortality up to tenth fortnight for all the doses of impregnation with bifenthrin (SC and ME) and lambdacyhalothrin (CS). Ring-net bioassays against An. culicifacies showed median knock-down time between 3.1 to 11.4 min. Behavioural indices...reduction in entry rates of anopheline and culicine mosquitoes into the rooms with treated nets compared to control indicated good efficacy...Indoor (immediate) mortality of mosquitoes with bifenthrin ME formulation was relatively lower compared to SC fomulation of bifenthrin and based on delayed mortility and continued susceptibility in bioassays, bifenthrin ME at the rate of 10 mg/m(2) dose was found suitable for the impregnation of mosquito nets for phase III trial. Another 2005 from India; this includes indoor DDT spraying as one branch: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16134977?ordinalpos=29itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum A field trial was carried out...on the efficacy of mosquito nets treated with a tablet formulation of deltamethrin (K-O TAB)
RE: Resending: Malaria in the world
Deborah, it came through ok the first time :) Good research. But tonight I was reading a very interesting article on the use of lead additives to petrol in the USA, and I thought there were some very interesting parallels with the whole DDT issue. Damn interesting site, too, with great articles. http://www.damninteresting.com/?p=932 c -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Deborah Harrell Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2008 12:51 AM To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Resending: Malaria in the world Hmm, I've waited 5 minutes and no post, so I'm trying again- schnipp ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Wal-Mart and more
On Feb 18, 2008, at 6:42 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: But, historically, the extra money the first half has is spent on things that employ the second half. That is _the_ process that created an American middle class out of dirt poor farmers who could barely feed their families. Okay ... so where's the middle class gone to, then? -- \/\/ ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Malaria in the world
debbie, sorry for the top post; for some reason this showed up in my bulk folder... jon Hmm, I've waited 5 minutes and no post, so I'm trying again- Here are a few article abstracts from PubMed on mosquito nets and indoor spraying; I have edited for length, indicated by ... and commented or elaborated in []: From Eritrea, 2006: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16635265?ordinalpos=35itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum A steep decline of malaria morbidity and mortality trends in Eritrea between 2000 and 2004: the effect of combination of control methods...This study employed cross-sectional survey to collect data from households, community and health facilities on coverage and usage of Insecticide-Treated Nets (ITNs), Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS), larvicidal activities and malaria case management. Comparative data was obtained from a similar survey carried out in 2001...In the period 2000-2004, approximately 874,000 ITNs were distributed and 13,109 health workers and community health agents were trained on malaria case management. In 2004, approximately 81% households owned at least one net, of which 73% were ITNs and 58.6% of children 0-5 years slept under a net...IRS coverage increased with the combined amount of DDT and Malathion used rising from 6,444 kg, in 2000 to 43,491 kg, in 2004, increasing the population protected from 117,017 to 259,420. Drug resistance necessitated regimen change to chloroquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. During the period, there was a steep decline in malaria morbidity and case fatality by 84% and 40% respectively. Malaria morbidity was strongly correlated to the numbers of ITNs distributed...and the amount (kg) of DDT and Malathion used for IRS... From the Solomon Islands, 2004 [full article avail.]: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15331840?ordinalpos=1itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum The incidence of malaria in Solomon Islands has been decreasing since 1992. The control program used a combination of methods including DDT residual house spraying and insecticide-treated mosquito nets. To determine how much each method contributed to malaria control, data were analyzed on monthly incidence and on control activities for 41 of 110 malaria zones over the same time period (January 1993 to August 1999). After correction for endogeneity, then spraying, insecticide treatment of nets, and education about malaria are all independently associated with reduction in incident cases of malaria or fever, while larviciding with temephos is not. The evidence suggests that although impregnated bed nets cannot entirely replace DDT spraying without substantial increase in incidence, their use permits reduced DDT spraying. The paper shows that non-experimental data can be used to infer causal links in epidemiology, provided that instrumental variables are available to correct for endogeneity. From a trial of bifenthrin treated mosquito nets in India (2005, full article avail.): http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15713980?ordinalpos=1itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVAbstractPlusDrugs1 The main rural malaria vector Anopheles culicifacies has developed resistance to dichloro diphenyl trichloroethane (DDT), hexachloro cyclo hexane (HCH) and malathion in the state of Haryana in northern India. An alternative synthetic pyrethroid insecticide bifenthrin was therefore evaluated on mosquito nets against anopheline and culicine mosquitoes, in two villages...Two formulations of bifenthrin, suspension concentrate (SC) and micro-emulsion (ME) were compared with micro-capsule suspension (CS) of lambdacyhalothrin. The impact of three doses of bifenthrin (10, 25 and 50 mg/m(2)) [also untreated controls]...Efficacy of treated nets on mosquito density was assessed by calculating mosquito entry rate, immediate mortality, delayed mortality and excito-repellency to the insecticides...Bioassays on treated nets against A. culicifacies recorded 100 per cent mortality up to tenth fortnight for all the doses of impregnation with bifenthrin (SC and ME) and lambdacyhalothrin (CS). Ring-net bioassays against An. culicifacies showed median knock-down time between 3.1 to 11.4 min. Behavioural indices...reduction in entry rates of anopheline and culicine mosquitoes into the rooms with treated nets compared to control indicated good efficacy...Indoor (immediate) mortality of mosquitoes with bifenthrin ME formulation was relatively lower compared to SC fomulation of bifenthrin and based on delayed mortility and continued susceptibility in bioassays, bifenthrin ME at the rate of 10 mg/m(2) dose was found suitable for the impregnation of mosquito nets for phase III trial. Another 2005 from India; this includes indoor DDT spraying as one branch: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16134977?ordinalpos=29itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum A field trial was carried out...on
Re: Malaria in the world
On Feb 19, 2008 5:00 PM, jon louis mann [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: debbie, sorry for the top post; for some reason this showed up in my bulk folder... Well, it WAS a bulky message. Nick -- Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED] Messages: 408-904-7198 ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: malaria in Africa
On Feb 18, 2008 6:20 PM, Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: But one issue where we do actually _know_ what the right thing to do is, is trade. Free trade is the right policy. And McCain is right on that (as, sadly, both Democrats, repudiating one of the greatest achievements of the Clinton Administration, are wrong). If I can't trust someone to get the right answer in an area _where we actually know what the right answer is_, I don't see how I can trust them to get it right on the issues where it's a lot harder. Could you explain further? Our views on Obama and McCain are fairly similar, but switched around. I wouldn't be too unhappy to see either one as President, but I'd prefer Obama. Nick Me: There aren't many issues in the social sciences where there is virtually complete professional consensus. I'm not sure if there are any except this one, but there is one. That one is free trade. There is absolutely no doubt that free trade is good for both countries. If two countries trade freely with each other _they will both be better off_. No qualifications, no restrictions. There are a tiny handful of complicating issues (strategic trade theory, for example) but they are, to first approximation, irrelevant. Trade can certainly have poor distributive effects. But making up for them will cost less - almost always vastly less - than the benefits from the free trade. I can't imagine any competent economist disagreeing with anything I've written there. There are particular special circumstances in which the earlier statements might not be true, but they are relatively rare and far less important than the general principle. Beyond that, free trade has positive distribution effects across all people - that is, it may increase inequality within states, but it decreases inequality between states, and inequality between states is vastly larger than that within (most) states. That is not _certain_, but it is, I would say, highly probable. Free trade has positive effects for the US's national standing. Hillary Clinton, in declaring her opposition to the few free trade agreements President Bush has negotiated, has hit on the one policy that might actually make our international standing _worse_. That is, again, less certain than the previous statement, but it's _still_ highly likely. Finally, I believe it is likely (not highly likely, but likely) that free trade policies prevent war. Why do some people oppose free trade? Many of the gains from trade are distributed, while the losses are concentrated. So unions oppose trade agreements (almost always incredibly foolishly - even if the agreements weren't passed, the larger economic forces are much more important) because their workers may suffer even though the nation as a whole will benefit. Note, btw, that unions almost always _oppose_ retraining programs that might help those same hurt workers, because such programs would move those people out of the unionized industry and weaken the union even as it hurts its members. This is a classic principal-agent problem, and if you think it's right-wing to say that, tell it to Robert Reich, who first pointed it out to me. Others are, quite simply, wrong. But unless you're a member of one of those wounded industries, you should be in favor of free trade. And even if you are, you should acknowledge that by doing so you're putting your personal welfare over the general good. Now, some people don't like this - they argue that the economists have it wrong, for example. I guess that might be true, although there is no finding in social science in which I have more confidence than the principle of comparative advantage. But anyone who chooses to say that I never want to hear ever criticize a Creationist or an Intelligent Designer ever, ever again. Because both are doing exactly the same thing - rejecting evidence and science in favor of faith. Do it if you must, but don't claim you're part of the reality-based community or anything like it. Gautam Looking for last minute shopping deals? Find them fast with Yahoo! Search. http://tools.search.yahoo.com/newsearch/category.php?category=shopping ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: malaria in Africa
Gautam wrote: That being said...Dan is right, I'm a big McCain supporter. snip I respect and admire McCain as well, but... Beyond personal qualities: McCain is the one person I'm sure will make torture illegal, which is, to me, a matter of national honor and thus absolutely non-negotiable. I would have agreed with you a week or so ago, but he recently voted against a measure that would have put the same restrictions on extra measures that the Army has. As a result, Bush will have a much easier time axing the bill. I think he will handle Iraq responsibly (Hillary's pledge to start removing troops in 60 days is, to me, the perfect example of everything that's wrong with her as a candidate, and a good start at what would be wrong with her as President). The war has been mishandled horrendously, but extricating ourselves from it is something that must be done carefully, to put it mildly. But McCain has been quoted as saying he wouldn't mind if we stayed there for another hundred years and talks about surrender as if there was someone to surrender to. We keep hearing Viet Nam analogies about what might happen if we leave precipitously (though other Viet Nam analogies that are more accurate are dismissed), but there's no NVA in Iraq. Our enemy there, Al Qaeda, wasn't even there before we invaded, there aren't all that many of them there now and there's a good chance that they won't be there after we leave because there are plenty of Iraqis that hate them as much or more than we do. So a picture of Americans being plucked off of an embassy roof in Iraq is a felicitous one. Will there be civil war between Suni and Shiite? Their differences have been exacerbated by the Al Qaeda attacks, but there's been a backlash against Al Qaeda that probably has as much to do with the reduction in violence over the last year as the escalation does. I have a feeling that they'll do just fine without us babysitting them. It occurs to me that the _worst_ thing that could happen to Al Qaeda is if we got the hell out now. This war has 1) given them world wide publicity and increased their stature in the Middle East 2) given them an opportunity to kill more Americans than they ever could have hoped for 3) forced _us_ to restrict the freedoms of our people and to compromise our principals 4) goaded us into committing atrocities 5) cost us hundreds of billions of dollars (much of which has been an absolute waste) and probably contributed to our economic woes and 5) has been the best recruiting tool they could have hoped for. I see absolutely no upside to having gone there in the first place or to stay any longer than necessary to get our people out safely. You can imagine that I felt vindicated when Alan Greenspan said that the war was largely about oil On economic issues - he surely doesn't know them as well as I would wish. But, look, there are lots of policy issues where we don't really know what the right thing to do is. I don't _know_ what the right thing to do in Iraq is. I have some ideas, but I'm really not sure, and I don't trust anyone who is. But one issue where we do actually _know_ what the right thing to do is, is trade. Free trade is the right policy. And McCain is right on that (as, sadly, both Democrats, repudiating one of the greatest achievements of the Clinton Administration, are wrong). If I can't trust someone to get the right answer in an area _where we actually know what the right answer is_, I don't see how I can trust them to get it right on the issues where it's a lot harder. You have to take into account that the Dems are still campaigning to their base in the primaries. The only objection I have with free trade is if a trading partner violates reasonable human rights and ecological standards and isn't held accountable. Anyways, all of that being said - I think Obama is fantastic. I don't think he's quite ready, but he is something special. The best political talent of his generation, surely, and the best speaker I've ever seen, bar none. Amazing. I don't see how you can look at him, know that, right now, a man who _in his own lifetime_ would not have been able to use buses and waterfountains in half this country, and know that he's the person most likely to be the next President and not be enormously proud of this country. I think the searching for the Messiah aspects of his candidacy are quite troubling, but he is the incarnation of the American Dream, and I would be proud to have either as my President. On another occasion I might not object to strenuously to a McCain presidency, but I feel that the party responsible for the train wreck that is the Bush administration needs to be thrown out on its ear. I would wholeheartedly support an Obama candidacy, but I worry about his safety and the Bradly effect. Hopefully the enthusiasm he generates and the intense fatigue with the Bush administration will overcome the
Re: Wal-Mart and more
On Feb 17, 2008, at 11:00 PM, Doug Pensinger wrote: Dan wrote: 1) Are you interested in a discussion on the vision of myself and at least one other person who was an active poster that discussions are often thwarted by pronouncements that come as if they come from Olympus, rather than arguments that folks want others to discuss so the author can test their own ideas? I'm certainly interested in a good discussion, but I find it very difficult to debate with you because you are a very prolific writer with no apparent limit on the time you have to research a topic. I'm almost a week behind on this list: I've been participating in a Socrates Society seminar at the Aspen Institute, and I've been sick as a dog. As much as I want to brag about the fact that I got to attend such a prestigious event, my main point is that Dan's complaint about the poor quality of discourse on this list and Doug's frustration with Dan's extraordinarily detailed posts were both handled so well in the seminar. The quality of the discussion and the remarkably respectful manner in which it took place were inspiring. At least in part because of the ground rules. Comments were expected to be substantive, but short: when the moderator acknoledged you, you had about two minutes to make your contribution. That would be about the length of this email. Despite the fact that there were some people in the room who could have filled an entire afternoon with fascinating speech, everybody -- including the moderators, historian Sean Worst President In History? Wilentz and former Republican Congressman Mickey Edwards -- strove to be succinct. Perhaps we can give each other the same gift? Dave ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
