Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-23 Thread dsummersmi...@comcast.net


Original Message:
-
From: David Hobby hob...@newpaltz.edu
Date: Mon, 23 Feb 2009 00:08:53 -0500
To: brin-l@mccmedia.com
Subject: Re: On the Housing Market


Rceeberger wrote:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-chart-thats-worth-1000-words-2009
-2 
 
 
 Housing prices may still have a ways to fall.

Rob--

Wow.  That's certainly what the chart shows.

Is it really that clear?  If it were, you'd
think that enough investors would have bet
against the housing bubble that it never
would have happened.


The bubble was that clear, particularly where housing prices skyrocketed up
on the coasts, in NV, etc. There is no way that a doubling in price is
anything but a bubble. But, the house I sold, I had to put in about $10k of
upgrades and sold at about 10k over what I bought (in inflation ajdusted
dollars), so the bubble isn't everywhere.  But, we're now starting to drop
in value as the market dries up.

Houses are now much bigger than they were in the '50s, GDP per capita is
much higher, etc.  So, a rise in inflation adjusted home prices is not
inherently inappropriate: one would not expect to pay the same price for a
3000 sq. ft. house as for a 1500 sq. ft. house, especially if the 3000 sq.
ft. house is much nicer. The rent vs. own question is still important. 
Right now, we're living in a 1350 sq. ft. apartment that costs more than
our mortgage payments were on our 3000 sq. ft. house.  Working it all out,
if it wasn't for the value of getting our appreciation while we did and the
relative ease of leaving an apartment when Teri got called, it would have
been cheaper to stay in the big house, maintaince costs and all.

Dan M. 

So, home prices could now be 10% overvalued.  


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http://link.mail2web.com/mail2web



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Watch the news out of Switzerland -

2009-02-23 Thread Pat Mathews

UBS is starting to look very, very bad.

I remember reading Earth and taking the Helvetian War for granted as the major 
early-21st Century Crisis without bothering to wonder what triggered the public 
mood of anger at their secrecy and covering up for dictators etc. Now, several 
months into the current recession, it becomes painfully clear - 

People will tolerate a lot of this sort of thing while they're making money or 
have hopes of making money. It's when the economy crashes and takes Main Street 
down with it that they get out the tar and feathers - and later the nukes. I've 
been watching it unfold with my own eyes.

So - back to Earth - a worldwide economic crash in which the Swiss Bankers 
appeared to be the primary culprits, and the witch hunt is on until Helvetia 
glows in the dark. Yes. This makes SUCH good sense. Different timeline, of 
course, since it's the American financiers who are now in danger of being 
tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail. But - google for UBS in 
trouble.

http://idiotgrrl.livejournal.com/





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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-23 Thread Nick Arnett
On Mon, Feb 23, 2009 at 6:50 AM, dsummersmi...@comcast.net 
dsummersmi...@comcast.net wrote:



 The bubble was that clear, particularly where housing prices skyrocketed up
 on the coasts, in NV, etc. There is no way that a doubling in price is
 anything but a bubble.


What's your definition of a bubble?  Artificially inflated prices (not
related to supply and demand)?  A large price increase that is sure to
correct?  It seems like a mushy term.

I'm asking not to argue, but to get at what this really means.  There is no
doubt, is there, that sometimes prices (of some things, at least) shoot up
for legitimate reasons.  When we get a sharp rise followed by a sharp
correction, we can point backwards and say Bubble!  But how do we know
that a doubling in price is a bubble unless it is followed by a big
correction?

Wikipedia: An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative
bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, or a
speculative mania) is trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably
at variance from intrinsic values.

Has the real estate volume been high in recent years?  Or may that's not the
right question - the volume of mortgages certainly has been high, but the
price of mortgages hasn't shot up.

Intrinsic values is a problematic term, since economic value is generally
defined in terms of how much of one thing we're willing to give up for
another.  Apparently people have been willing to give up a lot of money (or
do I mean solvency?) for real estate lately.  Banks have been, at least.

In the stock market, we talk about fundamentals and technical analysis.  It
seems like fundamentals have been forgotten in the real estate market...
such as the relationship between rents and valuations, which somebody here,
as I recall, pointed out was a pretty good indicator that we were in a
bubble.

Nick
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Re: Watch the news out of Switzerland -

2009-02-23 Thread David Brin
Yep, Pat.  My chief fear is that people won't get riled up enough.






From: Pat Mathews mathew...@msn.com
To: Brin List brin-l@mccmedia.com
Sent: Monday, February 23, 2009 7:26:42 AM
Subject: Watch the news out of Switzerland -

UBS is starting to look very, very bad.

I remember reading Earth and taking the Helvetian War for granted as the major 
early-21st Century Crisis without bothering to wonder what triggered the public 
mood of anger at their secrecy and covering up for dictators etc. Now, several 
months into the current recession, it becomes painfully clear - 

People will tolerate a lot of this sort of thing while they're making money or 
have hopes of making money. It's when the economy crashes and takes Main Street 
down with it that they get out the tar and feathers - and later the nukes. I've 
been watching it unfold with my own eyes.

So - back to Earth - a worldwide economic crash in which the Swiss Bankers 
appeared to be the primary culprits, and the witch hunt is on until Helvetia 
glows in the dark. Yes. This makes SUCH good sense. Different timeline, of 
course, since it's the American financiers who are now in danger of being 
tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail. But - google for UBS in 
trouble.

http://idiotgrrl.livejournal.com/ ___
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