Rain.

2009-02-25 Thread Charlie Bell
It did. It rained. We had a couple of mils. It helped with the  
containment of the fires.


We've spent much of the day wondering whether the fire at Daylesford  
will skip containment lines, and burn down Claire's folks' cottage.  
But, you know. Money. Jobs. So on. Real stuff like economics really  
comes into focus when you're worried about ephemeral stuff like a  
family home that's been built over years being destroyed in minutes...


So, um, yeah. That's all.

Charlie.

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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-25 Thread John Williams
On Tue, Feb 24, 2009 at 9:22 PM, Dan M

 On the whole, up on the north side of Houston, it's cheaper per sq. ft. per
 year to own than to rent.

Dallas seems to have had little, if any, real estate bubble. It has
the lowest peak to current price decline (9%) of any of the 20 cities
tracked by the Case-Shiller index:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/case-shiller-house-prices-decline.html

If Houston is similar to Dallas, then it probably does not make sense
to talk about a bubble in Houston. Nevertheless, it would have been
more interesting to make your price to rent comparison a few years
ago. As you can see in the link I posted previously, the price to rent
ratios in the country as a whole have come down a lot recently, making
the buy or rent decision closer. The ratios appear to still be
somewhat elevated, but only by perhaps 10 or 20% above a long-run
trend.

I took a look at realtor.com for Houston (although I am not familiar
with the area) and it looks like a typical single family home, about
2000 sq ft, rents for about $1000 per month. A similar home costs
about $120K, so a 30 yr 6% mortgage with 20% down would be around
$600/mo. So  anyone looking to live in the area I was browsing, for
more than a year or two, would probably want to buy. Especially
considering the government's ill-conceived tax credit for first-time
buyers this year (heads up to anyone interested: it ends Dec 1, 2009
not December 31).

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Weekly Chat Reminder

2009-02-25 Thread William T Goodall

The Brin-L weekly chat has been a list tradition for over ten
years. Way back on 27 May, 1998, Marco Maisenhelder first set
up a chatroom for the list, and on the next day, he established
a weekly chat time. We've been through several servers, chat
technologies, and even casts of regulars over the years, but
the chat goes on... and we want more recruits!

Whether you're an active poster or a lurker, whether you've
been a member of the list from the beginning or just joined
today, we would really like for you to join us. We have less
politics, more Uplift talk, and more light-hearted discussion.
We're non-fattening and 100% environmentally friendly...
-(_() Though sometimes marshmallows do get thrown.

The Weekly Brin-L chat is scheduled for Wednesday 3 PM
Eastern/2 PM Central time in the US, or 7 PM Greenwich time.
There's usually somebody there to talk to for at least eight
hours after the start time. If no-one is there when you arrive
just wait around a while for the next person to show up!

If you want to attend, it's really easy now. All you have to
do is send your web browser to:

  http://wtgab.demon.co.uk/~brinl/mud/

..And you can connect directly from the NEW new web
interface!

-- 
William T Goodall
Mail : w...@wtgab.demon.co.uk
Web  : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk
Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/

This message was sent automatically using launchd. But even if WTG
 is away on holiday, at least it shows the server is still up.

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RE: On the Housing Market

2009-02-25 Thread Rceeberger


On 2/24/2009 11:22:40 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote:

 Thanks John!
 Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007
 that
 made me anticipate the bubble bursting.
 Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer?


I
won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for
the coasts, NV, etc,


Sure, those areas were what tipped me off that something was up, though to 
be honest, I anticipated the bubble bursting only in the highly priced areas 
with the rest of the country riding it out mostly unmolested. I saw the loan 
problems as being a parallel situation and never expected such a dramatic 
implosion.




but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a
1350 sq. foot apartment that's
not as nice as my house than it would be if I
bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down,
and
lost the interest on the down payment money.  This figures in all the
costs
of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture
and
books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a
call.


Down on the far south side of town, also on the pricey side of real estate, 
1000 sq ft runs $800 - $1000 depending on how nice the appointments are.  Of 
course there is a price level above and one below, depending on ones income 
bracket.





On the whole, up on the north side of Houston,
it's cheaper per sq. ft. per
year to own than to rent.  I think that's
very unusual for the US, so I
think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown
rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to
rent.

Right now houses in Clear Lake are quite inexpensive. Prices are way down 
from 2005 levels. 10 - 20 percent in many cases. When I was first 
recognizing the bubble, I noticed a lot of billboards advertizing homes in 
the 400-500K range and I wondered who in the hell were buying these homes. I 
still have no idea.


For John, one of the better real estate sites I visit is HAR.com


xponent
Da Moneez Maru
rob 



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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-25 Thread David Brin
I'm testing by replying once with Re: in the subject line and once without.

If only the Re: comes to me, then we have a PARTIAL version of the old 
method, and I'll ask that folks remove Re: unless they seriously want my 
attention.  (The old Re: Brin: was better)

If I get both, then another solution is needed.

thrive all!

d




From: Rceeberger rceeber...@comcast.net
To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al)  Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 6:25:30 PM
Subject: RE: On the Housing Market


On 2/24/2009 11:22:40 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote:
  Thanks John!
  Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007
  that
  made me anticipate the bubble bursting.
  Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer?
 
 
 I
 won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for
 the coasts, NV, etc,

Sure, those areas were what tipped me off that something was up, though to be 
honest, I anticipated the bubble bursting only in the highly priced areas with 
the rest of the country riding it out mostly unmolested. I saw the loan 
problems as being a parallel situation and never expected such a dramatic 
implosion.


 but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a
 1350 sq. foot apartment that's
 not as nice as my house than it would be if I
 bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down,
 and
 lost the interest on the down payment money.  This figures in all the
 costs
 of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture
 and
 books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a
 call.

Down on the far south side of town, also on the pricey side of real estate, 
1000 sq ft runs $800 - $1000 depending on how nice the appointments are.  Of 
course there is a price level above and one below, depending on ones income 
bracket.


 
 On the whole, up on the north side of Houston,
 it's cheaper per sq. ft. per
 year to own than to rent.  I think that's
 very unusual for the US, so I
 think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown
 rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to
 rent.
 
Right now houses in Clear Lake are quite inexpensive. Prices are way down from 
2005 levels. 10 - 20 percent in many cases. When I was first recognizing the 
bubble, I noticed a lot of billboards advertizing homes in the 400-500K range 
and I wondered who in the hell were buying these homes. I still have no idea.

For John, one of the better real estate sites I visit is HAR.com


xponent
Da Moneez Maru
rob 

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On the Housing Market

2009-02-25 Thread David Brin
Testing without Re:




From: Rceeberger rceeber...@comcast.net
To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al)  Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 6:25:30 PM
Subject: RE: On the Housing Market


On 2/24/2009 11:22:40 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote:
  Thanks John!
  Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007
  that
  made me anticipate the bubble bursting.
  Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer?
 
 
 I
 won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for
 the coasts, NV, etc,

Sure, those areas were what tipped me off that something was up, though to be 
honest, I anticipated the bubble bursting only in the highly priced areas with 
the rest of the country riding it out mostly unmolested. I saw the loan 
problems as being a parallel situation and never expected such a dramatic 
implosion.


 but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a
 1350 sq. foot apartment that's
 not as nice as my house than it would be if I
 bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down,
 and
 lost the interest on the down payment money.  This figures in all the
 costs
 of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture
 and
 books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a
 call.

Down on the far south side of town, also on the pricey side of real estate, 
1000 sq ft runs $800 - $1000 depending on how nice the appointments are.  Of 
course there is a price level above and one below, depending on ones income 
bracket.


 
 On the whole, up on the north side of Houston,
 it's cheaper per sq. ft. per
 year to own than to rent.  I think that's
 very unusual for the US, so I
 think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown
 rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to
 rent.
 
Right now houses in Clear Lake are quite inexpensive. Prices are way down from 
2005 levels. 10 - 20 percent in many cases. When I was first recognizing the 
bubble, I noticed a lot of billboards advertizing homes in the 400-500K range 
and I wondered who in the hell were buying these homes. I still have no idea.

For John, one of the better real estate sites I visit is HAR.com


xponent
Da Moneez Maru
rob 

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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-25 Thread David Brin
Alas, both versions came through.  Nick, have we run out of solutions here?
david




From: David Brin db...@sbcglobal.net
To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 7:58:46 PM
Subject: On the Housing Market


Testing without Re:




From: Rceeberger rceeber...@comcast.net
To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al)  Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 6:25:30 PM
Subject: RE: On the Housing Market


On 2/24/2009 11:22:40 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote:
  Thanks John!
  Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007
  that
  made me anticipate the bubble bursting.
  Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer?
 
 
 I
 won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for
 the coasts, NV, etc,

Sure, those areas were what tipped me off that something was up, though to be 
honest, I anticipated the bubble bursting only in the highly priced areas with 
the rest of the country riding it out mostly unmolested. I saw the loan 
problems as being a parallel situation and never expected such a dramatic 
implosion.


 but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a
 1350 sq. foot apartment that's
 not as nice as my house than it would be if I
 bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down,
 and
 lost the interest on the down payment money.  This figures in all the
 costs
 of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture
 and
 books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a
 call.

Down on the far south side of town, also on the pricey side of real estate, 
1000 sq ft runs $800 - $1000 depending on how nice the appointments are.  Of 
course there is a price level above and one below, depending on ones income 
bracket.


 
 On the whole, up on the north side of Houston,
 it's cheaper per sq. ft. per
 year to own than to rent.  I think that's
 very unusual for the US, so I
 think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown
 rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to
 rent.
 
Right now houses in Clear Lake are quite inexpensive. Prices are way down from 
2005 levels. 10 - 20 percent in many cases. When I was first recognizing the 
bubble, I noticed a lot of billboards advertizing homes in the 400-500K range 
and I wondered who in the hell were buying these homes. I still have no idea.

For John, one of the better real estate sites I visit is HAR.com


xponent
Da Moneez Maru
rob 

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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-25 Thread Medievalbk
 
In a message dated 2/25/2009 9:00:34 P.M. US Mountain Standard Time,  
db...@sbcglobal.net writes:

Alas, both versions came through.  Nick, have we run out of  solutions here?
david



...with no Re grets?
 
What is a gret anyway?
**A Good Credit Score is 700 or Above. See yours in just 2 easy 
steps! 
(http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100126575x1218822736x1201267884/aol?redir=http:%2F%2Fwww.freecreditreport.com%2Fpm%2Fdefault.aspx%3Fsc%3D668072%26hmpgID
%3D62%26bcd%3DfebemailfooterNO62)
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Re: Rain.

2009-02-25 Thread Doug Pensinger
Charlie  wrote:

It did. It rained. We had a couple of mils. It helped with the containment
 of the fires.

 We've spent much of the day wondering whether the fire at Daylesford will
 skip containment lines, and burn down Claire's folks' cottage. But, you
 know. Money. Jobs. So on. Real stuff like economics really comes into focus
 when you're worried about ephemeral stuff like a family home that's been
 built over years being destroyed in minutes...


Glad to hear you've had a little rain Charlie, hope its enough to keep your
family's cottage (and many others) safe.

Doug
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Re: Rain.

2009-02-25 Thread Charlie Bell


On 26/02/2009, at 5:00 PM, Doug Pensinger wrote:



Glad to hear you've had a little rain Charlie, hope its enough to  
keep your family's cottage (and many others) safe.


Actually, no. *sigh* Another 40 degree day tomorrow, and strong winds.  
Many schools have been closed.


Charlie.

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