Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
John Williams wrote: So now you implicitly claim not only to be able to predict what would happen if the government did not intervene immediately after the various investment bank problems, but also what would have happened many months after that under the influence of unknown intervention efforts. Since distinguished economists have repeatedly failed to predict much simpler things on shorter time scales, I find your claim highly dubious. You probably know this, but a prediction is knowing something before it happens, not extrapolating what would have happened after the fact. In a baseball game, if an error is made on a play that would have ended an inning and a number of runs are scored afterwards, its not much of a stretch to say that if the error had not occurred, the runs wouldn't have scored. It is certainly not a prediction. Doug ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Sat, Aug 29, 2009 at 10:50 PM, John Williams jwilliams4...@gmail.comwrote: On Sat, Aug 29, 2009 at 9:58 PM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: I think it's disingenuous to say that we had no idea what would have happened. Many more banks would have failed, Yes, but that is not necessarily a cost. In many cases, I consider it a benefit. Haven't you argued that the failing banks and businesses are the result of cascading effects of public policy? And if so, why would you not expect further cascading effects? Isn't it common sense that major failures are likely to trigger other failures? Haven't we seen that repeatedly in our nation and others? It makes a lot of sense to me to intervene as little as possible, but you seem to be arguing that any intervention is wrong. How do you buy time to fix the system? Do you let the whole thing collapse just to make sure that your point is clear and some reform is needed? Isn't that devastately clear already? People, even liberals, can learn without enduring the worst of consequences. You sound like a doctor who advocates letting people die in the emergency room to teach everybody else a safety lesson. Nick ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 8:17 AM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: In a baseball game, if an error is made on a play that would have ended an inning and a number of runs are scored afterwards, its not much of a stretch to say that if the error had not occurred, the runs wouldn't have scored. It is certainly not a prediction. Taking a complicated situation and equating it to a simple one, and then assuming that what holds for the simple situation holds for the complex one, is likely to lead to incorrect information, flawed decisions, and overconfidence in one's ability to predict the evolution of the complicated situation. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 12:01 PM, Nick Arnettnick.arn...@gmail.com wrote: It makes a lot of sense to me to intervene as little as possible, but you seem to be arguing that any intervention is wrong. How do you buy time to fix the system? Do you let the whole thing collapse just to make sure that your point is clear and some reform is needed? Isn't that devastately clear already? I am arguing that intervention has costs and benefits. In this case, the costs are vast, and the benefits are largely unknown. I am also pointing out that there are millions of people in the US who can be involved in making things better, and that this can happen without any central intervention by the government. Additionally, government intervention often hampers the efforts of those who are most able to come up with solutions to problems through their unique knowledge and skills. People, even liberals, can learn without enduring the worst of consequences. You sound like a doctor who advocates letting people die in the emergency room to teach everybody else a safety lesson. You are implicitly making a prediction -- that the consequences would have been the worst if there were no immediate government intervention. I have seen no evidence of the accuracy of your predictions, in fact, I have seen evidence of the unreliability of them. So I must discount your implicit prediction. One of a doctor's fundamental guidelines is do no harm. A responsible doctor would never operate on a patient to remove the appendix simply because the patient complains of a stomach ache. More information about the state of the patient is needed before an operation is justified. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 12:22 PM, John Williams jwilliams4...@gmail.comwrote You are implicitly making a prediction -- that the consequences would have been the worst if there were no immediate government intervention. I have seen no evidence of the accuracy of your predictions, in fact, I have seen evidence of the unreliability of them. So I must discount your implicit prediction. What predictions of mine have been unreliable? If you mean predicting the kind of arguments you'll make, I think I have scored 100 percent on the positive side. One of a doctor's fundamental guidelines is do no harm. A responsible doctor would never operate on a patient to remove the appendix simply because the patient complains of a stomach ache. More information about the state of the patient is needed before an operation is justified. So, you're saying that Bernanke, etc., didn't have enough information to make the decisions they made? They should have taken advantage of further diagnostic techniques? Such as? Perhaps you are familiar with the existence of exploratory surgery? I can assure you, from my own experience and expertise, that you that you chose one of the very hardest differential diagnoses that is routinely made in emergency rooms, where the consequences of a mistake can be peritonitis, which is often fatal. In other words, a good analogy for the economy, where it often can be very hard to really know what's wrong until you begin very invasive treatment, but if you want, the patient has a reasonable chance of going downhill rapidly. Nick ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
Rob, we're having some talk of medical school in Austin. I haven't seen new construction on that, though. If there is new construction, I could be totally clueless right now, though. No new hospital construction *now* that I know of in Austin. They put up 2 in Round Rock east of IH-35 -- a Scott White near the outlet mall (my directions there to anyone coming from my direction include turn left just after you pass the hospital entrance on the right) and a Seton east of there. (And there was supposed to be massive road improvement right around the Seton one, but that particular bond package was voted down for some reason or another.) And there's likely something happening in other areas outside of Austin, but again, I'm out of the loop, big-time, for anything that's not close to Pflugerville. (Those Round Rock hospitals are pushing it, but between the outlet mall and knowing someone who was on bedrest during a pregnancy in that area, I drive around there often enough to have some clue as to just how many cows are being displaced.) Julia ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 12:47 PM, Nick Arnettnick.arn...@gmail.com wrote: What predictions of mine have been unreliable? Real estate investment. So, you're saying that Bernanke, etc., didn't have enough information to make the decisions they made? They should have taken advantage of further diagnostic techniques? Such as? All of them. But most of all, time to observe and study the situation. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
John Williams wrote: Taking a complicated situation and equating it to a simple one, and then assuming that what holds for the simple situation holds for the complex one, is likely to lead to incorrect information, flawed decisions, and overconfidence in one's ability to predict the evolution of the complicated situation. Is the complicated situation the misuse of the word predict? That's what the analogy was intended to illustrate. Beyond that, an analogy is intended to be a simplified version of the subject in order that the reader better understand what the writer is trying to convey. Thus if I say The building is shaped like an inverted cone. the reader gets an immediate picture of what I am trying to convey. I'm not trying to say that the cone is the same as the building, only that they have similarities in shape. Doug ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 3:53 PM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: I'm not trying to say that the cone is the same as the building, only that they have similarities in shape. In which case, the analogy is useless for drawing conclusions, unless you first list every similarity and difference to the actual situation. In which case, why not discuss the actual situation instead of absurd burning building or sports analogies? As for meaning of the word predict, I'm not interested in a discussion. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
Original Message: - From: John Williams jwilliams4...@gmail.com Date: Sun, 30 Aug 2009 12:14:11 -0700 To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader Taking a complicated situation and equating it to a simple one, and then assuming that what holds for the simple situation holds for the complex one, is likely to lead to incorrect information, flawed decisions, and overconfidence in one's ability to predict the evolution of the complicated situation. You are very very quite about yourself, but your posts indicate someone who has never had to properly simplify a complex situation in order to succeed. I don't think I've corresponded with anyone who writes as though they believe that Murphy's laws never apply to complex systems, and that humans can do nothing but make things worse. Your posts make the antagoist of Earth a look protechnical. :-) Dan M. mail2web.com Enhanced email for the mobile individual based on Microsoft® Exchange - http://link.mail2web.com/Personal/EnhancedEmail ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Posted in a workcube
I will not brew Decaf. Decaf is the mind-killer. Decaf brings the little sleep that leads to total oblivion. I will embrace my caffeine. I will brew my beverages and let them... flow through me, and when they are gone, I will remain...alert xponent Findings Maru rob ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
I origionally just hit reply to while multitaking and the returned it just to John. I'm sorry that it didn't go to the list, but I'm using my portable which does not have my main sorter. BTW, the below is not intended as a flame, but an accurate statement of what the posts indicate to me. I have never ever heard anyone who I know had sucessfully adressed very complex issues say or write what John writes about complex issues. It is possible that I have read such a disbelief in Murphy's laws in the last 15 or so years on line, but I don't recall. You are very very quite about yourself, but your posts indicate someone who has never had to properly simplify a complex situation in order to succeed. I don't think I've corresponded with anyone who writes as though they believe that Murphy's laws never apply to complex systems, and that humans can do nothing but make things worse. Your posts make the antagoist of Earth a look protechnical. :-) It's funny that some of his posts have brin-l as the main return and some don't. Finally, I'm sorry if folks, like John, are offended that I spare time writing to this list in between real work. Dan M. myhosting.com - Premium Microsoft® Windows® and Linux web and application hosting - http://link.myhosting.com/myhosting ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Posted in a workcube
-Original Message- From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of Rceeberger Sent: Sunday, August 30, 2009 8:16 PM To: Brin-L Subject: Posted in a workcube I will not brew Decaf. Decaf is the mind-killer. Decaf brings the little sleep that leads to total oblivion. I will embrace my caffeine. I will brew my beverages and let them... flow through me, and when they are gone, I will remain...alert Reply: You can get that on a t-shirt. I gave such a t-shirt to my brother-in-law. (His caffeine addiction is legendary. In fact, the first time I met him, the biggest impression he made on me was with the concoction he was using to stay awake for an all-nighter -- double-strength coffee with some instant thrown in for good measure, with 2 or 3 teabags soaking in the mess, in an insulated mug that was at least 20 oz., might have been more like 32, even. And the caffeine addiction was mentioned by a number of people who stood up to say things about him and my sister at their wedding reception.) Julia ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Posted in a workcube
rob wrote: I will not brew Decaf. Decaf is the mind-killer. Decaf brings the little sleep that leads to total oblivion. I will embrace my caffeine. I will brew my beverages and let them... flow through me, and when they are gone, I will remain...alert wtf are you doing in a workcube on a Sunday evening??? Where are your priorities, man? Doug vacuum, mow the lawn, build a step, walk the dog, move furniture, cook dinner and empty the trash maru ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
Dan wrote: I origionally just hit reply to while multitaking and the returned it just to John. I'm sorry that it didn't go to the list, but I'm using my portable which does not have my main sorter. BTW, the below is not intended as a flame, but an accurate statement of what the posts indicate to me. I have never ever heard anyone who I know had sucessfully adressed very complex issues say or write what John writes about complex issues. It is possible that I have read such a disbelief in Murphy's laws in the last 15 or so years on line, but I don't recall. You are very very quite about yourself, but your posts indicate someone who has never had to properly simplify a complex situation in order to succeed. I don't think I've corresponded with anyone who writes as though they believe that Murphy's laws never apply to complex systems, and that humans can do nothing but make things worse. Your posts make the antagoist of Earth a look protechnical. :-) It's funny that some of his posts have brin-l as the main return and some don't. Finally, I'm sorry if folks, like John, are offended that I spare time writing to this list in between real work. I'm offended that you don't proof your posts! Quite for quiet (I think), antigoist for antagonist (I think) and spare for spend (I think). I guess I should just be happy that you didn't truncate half a paragraph!! I kid you, I'm not offended in the least. And I know what you meant. 8^) Doug ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
John Williams wrote: In which case, the analogy is useless for drawing conclusions, unless you first list every similarity and difference to the actual situation. In which case, why not discuss the actual situation instead of absurd burning building or sports analogies? As for meaning of the word predict, I'm not interested in a discussion. How ironic is it that someone who claims to be such a libertarian is so adamant about restricting my rhetorical style! Its kind of like a prostitute lecturing people about chastity. Oops, there I go again... Doug ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Posted in a workcube
Julia wrote: Reply: You can get that on a t-shirt. I gave such a t-shirt to my brother-in-law. (His caffeine addiction is legendary. In fact, the first time I met him, the biggest impression he made on me was with the concoction he was using to stay awake for an all-nighter -- double-strength coffee with some instant thrown in for good measure, with 2 or 3 teabags soaking in the mess, in an insulated mug that was at least 20 oz., might have been more like 32, even. And the caffeine addiction was mentioned by a number of people who stood up to say things about him and my sister at their wedding reception.) oh. Now you see I thought he made that up and was posting it from a workcube. I even thought about spending some time on a poetic reply (too lazy). Silly me. Doug ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 5:58 PM, dsummersmi...@comcast.net dsummersmi...@comcast.net wrote: You are very very quite about yourself, but your posts indicate someone who has never had to properly simplify a complex situation in order to succeed. I don't think I've corresponded with anyone who writes as though they believe that Murphy's laws never apply to complex systems, and that humans can do nothing but make things worse. Your posts make the antagoist of Earth a look protechnical. :-) I couldn't agree more... and I must admit that's partly because I see myself as one who is good a simplifying complex problems to solve them. In the words of my last boss (which are memorialized in a recommendation on LinkedIn), [Nick] can analyze and decompose highly complex problems and synthesize solutions. And I'm pretty sure that was a compliment. ;-) Nick ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Posted in a workcube
On Aug 30, 2009, at 9:16 PM, Doug Pensinger wrote: rob wrote: I will not brew Decaf. Decaf is the mind-killer. Decaf brings the little sleep that leads to total oblivion. I will embrace my caffeine. I will brew my beverages and let them... flow through me, and when they are gone, I will remain...alert wtf are you doing in a workcube on a Sunday evening??? Where are your priorities, man? Doug vacuum, mow the lawn, build a step, walk the dog, move furniture, cook dinner and empty the trash maru 1) Signature contained the verb build in the context of things to do .. win. ;) 2) I read the last as enjoy the trash, which made an odd Zen-like sort of sense. I've been known to enjoy the trash (or at least the ritual of taking out the trash) myself. Then I realized the oddity of the phrase was all in my mind .. This is an amazing honor. I want you to know that I spend so much time in the world that is spinning all the time, that to be in the no- spin zone actually gives me vertigo. -- Stephen Colbert during an interview on FOX News, The O'Reilly Factor ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 7:53 PM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: How ironic is it that someone who claims to be such a libertarian is so adamant about restricting my rhetorical style! When did I claim to be a libertarian? And why exactly am I obligated to discuss something with you that I do not want to? ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
John Williams wrote: On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 7:53 PM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: How ironic is it that someone who claims to be such a libertarian is so adamant about restricting my rhetorical style! When did I claim to be a libertarian? Perhaps you did not, I apologize if I mis-characterized you but you certainly espouse their ideals. And why exactly am I obligated to discuss something with you that I do not want to? You are most definitely not obligated to talk about anything at all. I was talking about your bitching about my use of analogy. Doug ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 8:36 PM, John Williams jwilliams4...@gmail.comwrote: On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 7:53 PM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: How ironic is it that someone who claims to be such a libertarian is so adamant about restricting my rhetorical style! When did I claim to be a libertarian? Oh, come on. You espouse libertarian ideologies constantly, Mr. Keep the Government out of Everything, Please. Catch 60 Minutes tonight, talking about how deregulation in financial markets in 2000 essentially legalized betting on financial instruments, which had been illegal for most of the 20th century? That's what opened the doors to credit default swaps and other credit derivatives... the modern equivalent of Wall Street's bucket shops, which I hadn't known about until I heard this. What was a felony suddenly became legal, at the behest of Wall Street, and it was justified by the very arguments you make here - government regulation, intervention is bad, leave the market alone, they're all grown-ups and the market will fix any problems that come up. And look what happened instead - wild betting on mortgages, so confusing and byzantine that nobody knows what any of it really is worth. And this is a good? This federal deregulation actually stopped the states from enforcing anti-gambling and anti-bucket shop laws, passed after the crash of '07, in the financial markets. You'd think that would have been a strong clue that this would go badly. Now we know. Yet some still insist that we should not regulate these things. Oy. Nick ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
- Original Message - From: Nick Arnett nick.arn...@gmail.com To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com Sent: Sunday, August 30, 2009 10:56 PM Subject: Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 8:36 PM, John Williams jwilliams4...@gmail.comwrote: On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 7:53 PM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: How ironic is it that someone who claims to be such a libertarian is so adamant about restricting my rhetorical style! When did I claim to be a libertarian? Oh, come on. You espouse libertarian ideologies constantly, Mr. Keep the Government out of Everything, Please. Catch 60 Minutes tonight, talking about how deregulation in financial markets in 2000 essentially legalized betting on financial instruments, which had been illegal for most of the 20th century? That's what opened the doors to credit default swaps and other credit derivatives... the modern equivalent of Wall Street's bucket shops, which I hadn't known about until I heard this. What was a felony suddenly became legal, at the behest of Wall Street, and it was justified by the very arguments you make here - government regulation, intervention is bad, leave the market alone, they're all grown-ups and the market will fix any problems that come up. And look what happened instead - wild betting on mortgages, so confusing and byzantine that nobody knows what any of it really is worth. And this is a good? This federal deregulation actually stopped the states from enforcing anti-gambling and anti-bucket shop laws, passed after the crash of '07, in the financial markets. You'd think that would have been a strong clue that this would go badly. Now we know. Yet some still insist that we should not regulate these things. Oy. I find it humorous that those who believe in an invisible hand might ridicule the belief in an invisible pink unicorn. xponent A Smorgasbord Of Delicious Ironies Maru rob ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 8:53 PM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: You are most definitely not obligated to talk about anything at all. I was talking about your bitching about my use of analogy. It was not bitching, there was a point I was trying to make: taking a complicated system like the US economy, and comparing it to something far less complex, and then drawing conclusions from the simple comparison leads to incorrect information, and overconfident predictions. Can some complex systems be analyzed by comparison to a more simple system? Sure, there are plenty of examples, although most of them are in the physical sciences rather than the social sciences. Asimov's psychohistory made a great story, but it does not work in practice. There are precious little useful predictions coming out of economics. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
Oh, come on. You espouse libertarian ideologies constantly, Mr. Keep the Government out of Everything, Please. And what ideologies do you espouse? ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 9:30 PM, xponentrobxponent...@comcast.net wrote: I find it humorous that those who believe in an invisible hand might ridicule the belief in an invisible pink unicorn. Not sure what invisible pink unicorns have to do with this thread. But as for hands, there are hundreds of millions of them in the US. Few of them invisible. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
