RE: On Listmail
-Original Message- From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of Doug Pensinger Sent: Tuesday, May 04, 2010 11:22 PM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: On Listmail Concerning oil spills, Doug wrote. Tax, conserve Both are reasonable ideas. If you recall, JDG had, almost a decade ago, suggested a gasoline tax to change buying habits. I had mentioned, around the same time, a $1.00 federal tax added every yearwith appropriate rebates for low income folks, help with job training for truck drivers, etc. Of course, the best conservation possible is a massive downturn. CO2 output for 2009 was down to 1994 levels for the US. But, the latest data we have from China is 2006 data. Since then, their combined oil and coal consumption, and their cement production has indicated an increase in CO2 parallel to that of their economic growth. Thus, the true numbers of production would indicate that China is now, roughly, producing 50% more CO2 than the US. Baring a collapse of the Chinese economy (which is possible), in 3 years they will should double the CO2 output of the US. find alternatives and leave the oil in the ground. Here and elsewhere. If only we'd listened to Jimmy Carter. In any case, thanks for the info in your earlier post about possible causes; interesting stuff. One thing; you can speculate about this being a black swan, but there's no real way to confirm that. Even if this kind of thing happens only a couple of times a century, that's way too often. Why is something acute and highly visible, such as an oil slick, much worse than something chronic and invisible. For example, look at the biggest oil slick ever: http://countrystudies.us/saudi-arabia/17.htm The burn was massive, as the link said, soot was found in the Himalayas. The spill was overwhelming: 8 million barrels are listed hear. However, a New York Times article from a couple of years later indicated that the damage was acute: not long lasting. http://www.nytimes.com/1993/03/18/world/gulf-found-to-recover-from-war-s-oil -spill.html Contrast this, if you will, to the dead zone that has been in the Gulf for the last 20 years. This is a massive, chronic problem, probably associated at least somewhat with the fertilizer runoff from farms in the Mississippi drainage area. When you are discussing ending oil production, you are discussing a downturn in the world economy that would make the last two years look like a blip. I think where we mostly disagree is the concept that, with enough funding, the Captain Piccard system for engineering works (just say make it so and Geordi (sp) has it done by the end of the show). I'd argue, that Clay Christensen is correct on how innovations work. A quick overview of this idea is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_technology As is often true with Wikipedia, this isn't perfect, but I think that the basic concept describes why alternative fuel sources have not penetrated the market, and what would be needed for them to do so. It's probable that the US and Europe will have lower fossil fuel use in a decade than today. It's also probable, and it would take a 10 year lack of growth for this to not happen, that countries such as China and India will greatly increase their use of fossil fuels. Prices patterns indicate that oil production will not expand greatly. Natural gas will, and should, in the US, but most of the world will use a lot more coal...in plants with minimal pollution control equipment. The only way the US has to influence this is to come up with a disruptive innovation in energy. Anything else is as real as the run up in housing prices before the bubble burst. Dan M. BTW, Clay and Gautam are friends. They got to know each other when Gautam used this concept to explain why the British didn't use an effective countermeasure for submarine warfare on merchant ships in WWI that they had already been using to protect battleships until the end of the war. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Dan Minette wrote: Well, I'm just pointing out that the California wants to protect the whole coast but has been happy driving cars with gas refined near Houston from offshore GOM. Why is the GOM shoreline so much lower in value the California shoreline? And, if you stop offshore drilling, you are left with fields deep in their decline. If you exclude the Alaska Wildlife Refuge and offshore, you're down 75% in recoverable oil. Basically, we'll be importing 90% of our oil. Tax, conserve, find alternatives and leave the oil in the ground. Here and elsewhere. If only we'd listened to Jimmy Carter. In any case, thanks for the info in your earlier post about possible causes; interesting stuff. One thing; you can speculate about this being a black swan, but there's no real way to confirm that. Even if this kind of thing happens only a couple of times a century, that's way too often. Doug ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Stop burning it for fuel, and start using it for plastic feedstocks. And stop using 1000-year plastics for disposable packaging and start using them for stuff that will be around for 1000 years. On May 4, 2010, at 11:22 PM, Doug Pensinger wrote: Tax, conserve, find alternatives and leave the oil in the ground. Here and elsewhere. Heard from a flight instructor: The only dumb question is the one you DID NOT ask, resulting in my going out and having to identify your bits and pieces in the midst of torn and twisted metal. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Kevin said: But your point about Facebook and Twitter may be correct, to some degree. The unfortunate thing about that is neither medium is worth a damn for any serious conversation. I am not in Dan Minette's league, as 3-4 paragraphs into an e-mail I start to run out of steam, but you simply cannot talk intelligently at 140 characters per message. I've had some quite serious discussions on Facebook using comments attached to statuses or posted items. I'm not sure what the maximum length of Facebook comments is but it's certainly much more than 140 characters. Rich ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: On Listmail
As far as where everyone's been, the Sharkey scions are in the prime of their doing lots of activities ages right now. Between dance, baseball, softball and Boy Scouts there's barely a moment for plain old family time, let alone lengthy discussions on the pros and cons of the Arizona immigration law and the like. I do always check for list mail, though, in case something interesting happens! Jim ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On Sun, May 2, 2010 at 10:49 PM, Doug Pensinger brig...@zo.com wrote: If anything good is to come out of this disaster, its that we'll be taking a closer look at offshore drilling, and that nobody will even be suggesting that we rape the California coast for a few buckets of oil. I've seen people seriously speculating that anti-drilling people, perhaps directed by the White House, sabotaged the platform, to cause the spill, so that drilling would slow down or stop. There is no end to the conspiracy. On a more rational note, DB commented that every well should have a deadman switch, so to speak - a device that shuts off the flow if it doesn't continuously receive a signal. Maybe I'm naive, but it seems to me that something like that would be in place if it were practical. Anybody know? Why not an automatic shut-off valve? Is it perhaps that some oil is under so much pressure that once it starts flowing, there's no stopping it as a practical matter? Nick ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Apprehension, was listmail
This list may have somewhat of the same kind of problem science fiction does in general. The problem is runaway technology. Think of how long painting and story telling lasted. Movies are still using film, but that's rapidly coming to an end VHS tape is about gone after decades. DVD replaced them and after single digit years is being replaced by Blue Ray, which in turns is going away in favor of Internet transmission. The concept here leads to the singularity, of nanotechnology and weakly godlike AI. I see no way to avoid it. It doesn't matter if humans manage to keep up with advancing technology or wind up relating to our successor the way cats do to humans. Things are going to change radically and it's likely this change will happen before mid century. This offers, for example, an explanation for the Fermi Question. There are lots of things to discuss, but very few people want to discuss such an unsettling future. Keith. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: On Listmail
I think they had one, but it's not working, and they don't know why. http://idiotgrrl.livejournal.com/ Date: Mon, 3 May 2010 07:11:07 -0700 Subject: Re: On Listmail From: nick.arn...@gmail.com To: brin-l@mccmedia.com On Sun, May 2, 2010 at 10:49 PM, Doug Pensinger brig...@zo.com wrote: If anything good is to come out of this disaster, its that we'll be taking a closer look at offshore drilling, and that nobody will even be suggesting that we rape the California coast for a few buckets of oil. I've seen people seriously speculating that anti-drilling people, perhaps directed by the White House, sabotaged the platform, to cause the spill, so that drilling would slow down or stop. There is no end to the conspiracy. On a more rational note, DB commented that every well should have a deadman switch, so to speak - a device that shuts off the flow if it doesn't continuously receive a signal. Maybe I'm naive, but it seems to me that something like that would be in place if it were practical. Anybody know? Why not an automatic shut-off valve? Is it perhaps that some oil is under so much pressure that once it starts flowing, there's no stopping it as a practical matter? Nick ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Nick Arnett wrote: On Sun, May 2, 2010 at 10:49 PM, Doug Pensinger brig...@zo.com mailto:brig...@zo.com wrote: If anything good is to come out of this disaster, its that we'll be taking a closer look at offshore drilling, and that nobody will even be suggesting that we rape the California coast for a few buckets of oil. I've seen people seriously speculating that anti-drilling people, perhaps directed by the White House, sabotaged the platform, to cause the spill, so that drilling would slow down or stop. There is no end to the conspiracy. In an era where the Big Lie, Teach the Controversy, and balanced reporting are routine factors in the media and public discourse and we have people like Limbaugh and Beck trumpeting conspiracy theories constantly, I am 100% not surprised to hear people seriously considering a White House conspiracy to blow up an oil rig. On a more rational note, DB commented that every well should have a deadman switch, so to speak - a device that shuts off the flow if it doesn't continuously receive a signal. Maybe I'm naive, but it seems to me that something like that would be in place if it were practical. Anybody know? Why not an automatic shut-off valve? Is it perhaps that some oil is under so much pressure that once it starts flowing, there's no stopping it as a practical matter? I thought such a device was installed and we are now learning that it was done poorly and/or improperly? Charges are currently flying over that very issue, no? --[Lance] -- GPG Fingerprint: 409B A409 A38D 92BF 15D9 6EEE 9A82 F2AC 69AC 07B9 CACert.org Assurer ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Apprehension, was listmail
On Sun, May 2, 2010 at 2:38 PM, Keith Henson hkeithhen...@gmail.com wrote: This list may have somewhat of the same kind of problem science fiction does in general. The problem is runaway technology. In other words, perhaps the list doesn't need us anymore. I've seen a lot of web sites like that. Nick ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On May 3, 2010, at 12:49 AM, Doug Pensinger wrote: Beyond that, you're right, we should stop using fossil fuels as quickly as is practicable. I favor large state and federal taxes on gas and oil to subsidize research and development on alternatives and the development of mass transit. Maybe in light of this debacle a few more people will see it my way. There was research on exactly that sort of strategy, a few decades ago. Then it went out of style and what research there was was starved of funding and allowed to die, and we went right back to the old habits. Wind/solar energy resources are still seen as hippie fringe science in the parts of the world where oil is still king, and oil production is still the vast majority of our energy investment. The problem is one of attitudes, and fickle and unstable ones at that. The large scale investment in alternative energy sources had support mainly because people had fresh memories of the 1973 oil embargo, and as soon as it looked like Saudi oil was back on the table, the support for developing alternative energy faded out and oil was back in business. As soon as people couldn't see anything scary right in front of their faces, they forgot the bigger picture. Proposing a fundamental change in how humans do anything is never easy, and always has to fight this tendency to go right back to old habits once immediate crises are over, especially given the conservative and refractory nature of upper level management in the oil industry. There are a lot of people who think the way you and I do (and we agree on a lot!), but entirely too few of them are in decision making capacities when it comes to this sort of thing .. A city built on rock 'n roll would be structurally unsound. -- Julie Maier ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: On Listmail
From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of Nick Arnett Sent: Monday, May 03, 2010 9:11 AM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: On Listmail On Sun, May 2, 2010 at 10:49 PM, Doug Pensinger brig...@zo.com wrote: If anything good is to come out of this disaster, its that we'll be taking a closer look at offshore drilling, and that nobody will even be suggesting that we rape the California coast for a few buckets of oil. I've seen people seriously speculating that anti-drilling people, perhaps directed by the White House, sabotaged the platform, to cause the spill, so that drilling would slow down or stop. There is no end to the conspiracy. On a more rational note, DB commented that every well should have a deadman switch, so to speak - a device that shuts off the flow if it doesn't continuously receive a signal. Maybe I'm naive, but it seems to me that something like that would be in place if it were practical. Anybody know? I do. I happen to know a decent amount about the rules and regulations concerning this. They are quite strict, and cover everything folks could think of. If what I'm hearing from a _very_ well placed source on what is known about what happened is right, this will turn out to be a black swan event. Reasons for it are speculative right now, and I won't say one way or the other in a list that turns up in Google searches who I think might have done something wrong, but we do know some things. From what I've heard, there were two independent cutoffs; either one of which should have been sufficient. They are a mile below the water, so the explosion at the surface is not the likely cause for them not tripping. My memory of blowout prevention is that there are two means of the cutoffs being triggered; one automatic, and one switched. The switch has been pulled a zillion times, both remotely and from subs right at where the well comes out of the ground. No dice. I have heard that the bottom casing came out at the surface. The casing is the steel pipe that's cemented into place in the borehole to allow the pumping of oil from the horizontal section of the well (I haven't read, but would bet $100 to $1 that this well was highly deviated and if not horizontal at the bottom, it wasn't only because the producing bed was tilted and it was following the tiltso call it horizontal. So, whatever happened is something my source said he would have bet his house would be impossible: casing pushed to the surface by gas pressure. First, the casing should have been held in place by the cement (think of pulling rebar out of a piece of concrete from a chuck of, say, a collapsed bridge). Second, the casing is torqued together, and the gas pressure isn't a torquing pressure, so I'd guess tons of casing would have had to make it to the surface. Under those conditions, I can imagine damage to the cut-offs. No one could have envisioned, after already drilling the well and measuring all the downhole pressures, that during well changeover, there'd be enough pressure to push that much drill pipe outand that the drill pipe wouldn't be held by the cement. 11 people died. Most lived, so the problem wasn't that the cutoff could not be triggered because the guy who could do it died. In fact, both cutoffs were triggered repeatedly, and neither worked. No one knows for sure, but I'd put money on both cutoffs being damaged, not by the gas, but by the casing going up. BTW, I bet the rig was running intrinsically safe. The rules for running that way are very strict; a normal computer is not intrinsically safe; a 6 volt battery isn't, etc. Making an intrinsically safe computer requires an air tight box, so any possible spark from the computer couldn't reach the open air. IIRC, the biggest voltage/amperage allowed would be far below the threshold for the smallest spark possible.But, push casing 6 miles up through earth and ocean and have it break and fall on the rig, and you have a spark, and that's all she wrote. But, having this happen boggles the mind. Dan M. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On May 3, 2010, at 12:10 PM, Dan Minette wrote: No one could have envisioned, after already drilling the well and measuring all the downhole pressures, that during well changeover, there'd be enough pressure to push that much drill pipe outand that the drill pipe wouldn't be held by the cement. Wait .. drill pipe, or casing? Looked like they were in the process of casing the well to get it ready for production, which would mean casing, in which case you're absolutely right about the magnitude of the forces involved and what they'd do to the cutoffs and blowout preventers at the underwater wellhead. Unless the casing wasn't set right, or the cement hadn't cured enough .. There is a fundamental difference between the mythical imagery we apply to reality and the reality itself. -- Me ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: On Listmail
Wait .. drill pipe, or casing? Everything I read as well as what I heard from a well placed source says casing. The WSJ is discussing a bad cement job as the cause, as are a number of other papers. What I've heard from my source is 100% consistent with the well having been cased and cemented. Indeed, the source was talking about it happening during the changeover in mud fluids to salt water. I presume the pressure was kept in check by heavy mud before, but once it is cased and cemented, the casing and the cement should hold back the pressure differential between 16k psi of salt water (IIRC, it' was below 30k feet), and the gas. I haven't read the last casing size, but making reasonable guesses from what I read, we're talking about at least 3/4 thick pipe. I'm guessing an ID of 3.5. If they were really good at drilling, maybe 6 ID and 7 3/4 OD.but that's about as big as I could imagine with that kind of depth. Looked like they were in the process of casing the well to get it ready for production, which would mean casing. I'm pretty sure it was after that, and this is _really_ critical. If my understanding is correct, they were switching the wellbore fluid to salt water in preparation for completing the well by shooting holes in the casing and the cement (perforating), to allow the oil to flow. Since they measured pressures on the way down, they knew where all the high pressure zones were, and could just perforate the oil zones (natural gas is so cheap and abundant, it's not worth producing in an expensive well right now its like $25 dollar/barrel oil). But, they hadn't gotten that far. I think (speculation) that once the heavy mud was gone, the pressure was enough to break the casing away from the cement and send it up 6 miles. in which case you're absolutely right about the magnitude of the forces involved and what they'd do to the cutoffs and blowout preventers at the underwater wellhead. Unless the casing wasn't set right, or the cement hadn't cured enough .. I think that the cutoffs were designed for the pressures encountered. But, can you imagine how hard it would be to close the cutoffs if some steel pipe were still stuck in it? I don't know that's a fact, but I do know that the cutoffs were each designed to shut under enormous pressures. It's not that hard, you don't have to push back against the pressures, just go sideways. But, if you have a big steel pipe in the way, then you have problems. Dan M. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Bruce Bostwick wrote: Wind/solar energy resources are still seen as hippie fringe science in the parts of the world where oil is still king, Not everywhere. P = k v^3 Maru Alberto Monteiro ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: On Listmail
-Original Message- From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of Doug Pensinger Sent: Monday, May 03, 2010 12:50 AM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: On Listmail Hi Dan, I'm glad to see you're still around and that you've escaped Houston. Thanks, it's beautiful where we live. The problem with your suggestion is that, without only onshore production, and not counting the Alaska Wildlife Refuge, we only are left with about a quarter of the probable reserves. You used to argue that off shore drilling was safe, an argument that, as you have noted, has quite literally been blown out of the water. Drilling in a protected shore would be no different than drilling in Yosemite or Yellowstone. Well, I'm just pointing out that the California wants to protect the whole coast but has been happy driving cars with gas refined near Houston from offshore GOM. Why is the GOM shoreline so much lower in value the California shoreline? And, if you stop offshore drilling, you are left with fields deep in their decline. If you exclude the Alaska Wildlife Refuge and offshore, you're down 75% in recoverable oil. Basically, we'll be importing 90% of our oil. So, on shore only means soon importing 90% of our oil from Iran and Saudi, and Kuwait, and Nigeria... Dan M. If anything good is to come out of this disaster, its that we'll be taking a closer look at offshore drilling, and that nobody will even be suggesting that we rape the California coast for a few buckets of oil. Beyond that, you're right, we should stop using fossil fuels as quickly as is practicable. I favor large state and federal taxes on gas and oil to subsidize research and development on alternatives and the development of mass transit. Maybe in light of this debacle a few more people will see it my way. Doug Not in Anyone's Back Yard maru ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Funny thing, there's an anti-wind power movement as well, borrowing many of the same arguments that anti-oil protesters use. -- Matt From: Dan Minette danmine...@att.net To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com Sent: Mon, May 3, 2010 12:06:49 PM Subject: RE: On Listmail -Original Message- From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of Doug Pensinger Sent: Monday, May 03, 2010 12:50 AM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: On Listmail Hi Dan, I'm glad to see you're still around and that you've escaped Houston. Thanks, it's beautiful where we live. The problem with your suggestion is that, without only onshore production, and not counting the Alaska Wildlife Refuge, we only are left with about a quarter of the probable reserves. You used to argue that off shore drilling was safe, an argument that, as you have noted, has quite literally been blown out of the water. Drilling in a protected shore would be no different than drilling in Yosemite or Yellowstone. Well, I'm just pointing out that the California wants to protect the whole coast but has been happy driving cars with gas refined near Houston from offshore GOM. Why is the GOM shoreline so much lower in value the California shoreline? And, if you stop offshore drilling, you are left with fields deep in their decline. If you exclude the Alaska Wildlife Refuge and offshore, you're down 75% in recoverable oil. Basically, we'll be importing 90% of our oil. So, on shore only means soon importing 90% of our oil from Iran and Saudi, and Kuwait, and Nigeria... Dan M. If anything good is to come out of this disaster, its that we'll be taking a closer look at offshore drilling, and that nobody will even be suggesting that we rape the California coast for a few buckets of oil. Beyond that, you're right, we should stop using fossil fuels as quickly as is practicable. I favor large state and federal taxes on gas and oil to subsidize research and development on alternatives and the development of mass transit. Maybe in light of this debacle a few more people will see it my way. Doug Not in Anyone's Back Yard maru ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
*boggle* Peak Wind? --[Lance] Matt Grimaldi said the following on 5/3/2010 3:30 PM: Funny thing, there's an anti-wind power movement as well, borrowing many of the same arguments that anti-oil protesters use. -- GPG Fingerprint: 409B A409 A38D 92BF 15D9 6EEE 9A82 F2AC 69AC 07B9 CACert.org Assurer ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: On Listmail
Matt Grimaldi said the following on 5/3/2010 3:30 PM: Funny thing, there's an anti-wind power movement as well, borrowing many of the same arguments that anti-oil protesters use. I presume you are thinking of Nantucket lawsuits against offshore windfarms as one example Dan M. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On May 3, 2010, at 1:47 PM, Alberto Monteiro wrote: Wind/solar energy resources are still seen as hippie fringe science in the parts of the world where oil is still king, Not everywhere. P = k v^3 Maru Alberto Monteiro You are correct, sir. ;) Go ahead and do it, you can apologize later. -- RADM Grace Hopper, 1906-1992 The sunset is an illusion, but the beauty is real. -- Richard Bach ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On May 3, 2010, at 9:14 AM, Bruce Bostwick wrote: There was research on exactly that sort of strategy, a few decades ago. Then it went out of style and what research there was was starved of funding and allowed to die, and we went right back to the old habits. Wind/solar energy resources are still seen as hippie fringe science in the parts of the world where oil is still king, and oil production is still the vast majority of our energy investment. From twitter.com/timbray: BREAKING: Large Air Spill at Wind Farm. No threats reported. Some claim to enjoy the breeze (via @quikness) Dave ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Lance wrote: ] Peak Wind? That's funny. We could almost work in a joke about breaking...uh, never mind. I had meant more along the lines: It hurts the environment It doesn't do all the good that they say it does It's unreliable as a power source It ruins the picturesque scenery It's just a big corporate takeover of our way of life You know, the basic run-of-the-mill FUD. -- Matt From: Lance A. Brown la...@bearcircle.net To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com Sent: Mon, May 3, 2010 12:39:53 PM Subject: Re: On Listmail *boggle* Peak Wind? --[Lance] Matt Grimaldi said the following on 5/3/2010 3:30 PM: Funny thing, there's an anti-wind power movement as well, borrowing many of the same arguments that anti-oil protesters use. -- GPG Fingerprint: 409B A409 A38D 92BF 15D9 6EEE 9A82 F2AC 69AC 07B9 CACert.org Assurer ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Apprehension, was listmail
On Sun, May 2, 2010 at 2:38 PM, Keith Henson hkeithhen...@gmail.com wrote: The concept here leads to the singularity, of nanotechnology and weakly godlike AI. I see no way to avoid it. It doesn't matter if humans manage to keep up with advancing technology or wind up relating to our successor the way cats do to humans. Things are going to change radically and it's likely this change will happen before mid century. This offers, for example, an explanation for the Fermi Question. There are lots of things to discuss, but very few people want to discuss such an unsettling future. I'm certainly interested in discussing the future, the Fermi paradox, and the possibility of a technological singularity, and I'm sure many others are too. I don't think that is the root problem. I think because there are so many places that people can go to discuss issues now, that it is (ironically) much harder to find people to discuss things with - if that makes sense. IHere? Facebook? Twitter? LinkedIn? Wave? Buzz? Somewhere else? ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
At 04:07 PM Monday 5/3/2010, Dave Land wrote: On May 3, 2010, at 9:14 AM, Bruce Bostwick wrote: There was research on exactly that sort of strategy, a few decades ago. Then it went out of style and what research there was was starved of funding and allowed to die, and we went right back to the old habits. Wind/solar energy resources are still seen as hippie fringe science in the parts of the world where oil is still king, and oil production is still the vast majority of our energy investment. From twitter.com/timbray: BREAKING: Large Air Spill at Wind Farm. No threats reported. Some claim to enjoy the breeze (via @quikness) Dave http://comics.com/ed_stein/2010-05-01/ ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Doug Pensinger wrote: Ahem. Hello? Anyone here Just got back from Penguicon. I had breakfast with Karl Schroeder, which was fairly wide-ranging in looking at Canada and the US, among other topics. And attended a great talk by Geoffrey Landis that discussed the physics of time travel. But your point about Facebook and Twitter may be correct, to some degree. The unfortunate thing about that is neither medium is worth a damn for any serious conversation. I am not in Dan Minette's league, as 3-4 paragraphs into an e-mail I start to run out of steam, but you simply cannot talk intelligently at 140 characters per message. Regards, -- Kevin B. O'Brien TANSTAAFL zwil...@zwilnik.com Linux User #333216 The obvious mathematical breakthrough would be development of an easy way to factor large prime numbers - Bill Gates, The Road Ahead ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: On Listmail
I'm here, but moderated because I have a new email account. Folks are busy, so I haven't seen my first email, or we no longer see our own emails. BTW, Doug, as shocking and horrendous as the accident was, (the entire bottom casing was blown up miles by the gas pressure) I am no fan of NIMBY. If you want to stop drilling for oil, then California should stop using fossil fuels, not let others take all the risks for them. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: On Listmail
I guess I'm off moderation, I just didn't see my first post. I was off listmail for a while because I moved to Grove OK. My wife took a call to the small town and we are renting a house on Grand Lake. It's beautiful there, and we are lucky in that the housing market is full of houses that aren't selling, so we can rent a house with 250 feet of lake shore, two very big (around 30' x 40') boat docks, 2.5 acres, 2400 sq. feet for 1500/month. The land is valued at $750,000k without the house. I've been working more than full time, helping out at church, and my wife's been working 70 hour weeks. This is her first week of vacation. So, that's where I've been. Dan M. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Hi Dan, I'm glad to see you're still around and that you've escaped Houston. You wrote: Doug, as shocking and horrendous as the accident was, (the entire bottom casing was blown up miles by the gas pressure) I am no fan of NIMBY. If you want to stop drilling for oil, then California should stop using fossil fuels, not let others take all the risks for them. It's not really not NIMBY, it's not on my pristine coast. If the oil were in the Mojave or if they found more in the central valley,it would be different. You used to argue that off shore drilling was safe, an argument that, as you have noted, has quite literally been blown out of the water. Drilling in a protected shore would be no different than drilling in Yosemite or Yellowstone. If anything good is to come out of this disaster, its that we'll be taking a closer look at offshore drilling, and that nobody will even be suggesting that we rape the California coast for a few buckets of oil. Beyond that, you're right, we should stop using fossil fuels as quickly as is practicable. I favor large state and federal taxes on gas and oil to subsidize research and development on alternatives and the development of mass transit. Maybe in light of this debacle a few more people will see it my way. Doug Not in Anyone's Back Yard maru ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Rio de Janeiro rains in April/2010 [was: On Listmail]
Doug Pensinger asked: Oops, sorry. Over 50 cm then? 28.8 cm, the volume of April in 24 hours. There were two big problems: the rains happened during a time of high tide _and_ winds coming from the Sea; with abnormally high sea levels, the water couldn't flow to the Ocean. A huge part of Rio is at sea-level, and in 99% of cases when it rains, water flows naturally to the Ocean. But look at a few images in: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:2010_Rio_de_Janeiro_floods Another problem was sort-of expected: there are millions of people living in the hills in Rio (and Niteroi - another city, look at the map ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niter%C3%B3i ... Niteroi is at the other side of Guanabara Bay). These people illegally occupy preservation zones, and it's extremely hard to remove them, because any attempt to remove them is faced with human rights defenders that say they have the right to live where they live (those human right defenders vanish whenever a disaster happens and kills those people they protect). The worst single-point disaster was an illegal occupation in a landfill zone - some of the occupants didn't even know that they were living over a garbage dump. The disaster in Rio wasn't worse because Rio Mayor Eduardo Paes used the TV networks and asked people to stay at home on Tuesday (rains started on Monday). So very few people got strangled in traffic and were carried by the floods on Tuesday - most of us watched the rivers flowing through the city from the safety of home. More: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2010_Rio_de_Janeiro_floods_and_mudslides Alberto Monteiro ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On 30/04/2010, at 3:34 AM, Richard Baker wrote: Doug said: Is anyone out there? I'm still here; I don't think that I'll ever unsubscribe from Brin-L and the Culture. I agree that it's been awfully quiet though. Rich GCU Mailing List Fermi Paradox _ Shhh. C. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On 30/04/2010, at 5:00 AM, Bruce Bostwick wrote: On Apr 28, 2010, at 11:26 PM, John Williams wrote: From my point of view, the current political situation in the US is a disaster and just too depressing to even think about. Hang on. I think John may have just twigged. And I think I may have to disable my old email filters for a while and see if we can get a good faith discussion out of this. *done* Interesting. Very interesting. It is depressing, isn't it? What passes for discourse in this country these days brings images to my mind of tribes of screeching monkeys flinging feces at each other. Too many people are focusing all their effort on out-shouting anyone tho disagrees with them, and putting no effort at all into actually listening or trying to gain real understanding. Yes, I find that very depressing indeed. Isn't it. When the only intelligent discussion one sees in American current affairs is the Daily Show and Rachel Maddow, it's a bit concerning... It doesn't help that many of the people now shouting the loudest are people who are, indirectly, actively arguing for their own ruin, Indeed. Rarely has careful what you wish for been so apropos. Charlie. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Shhh. C. ___ Be vewwy vewwy quiet, I'm hunting wabbits. Dee ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On 01/05/2010, at 10:38 AM, kananda...@aol.com wrote: Shhh. C. ___ Be vewwy vewwy quiet, I'm hunting wabbits. Dee DD!!! Whaddup? CEB ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Doug Pensinger wrote: In any case, poor old Brin-l seems to be as dead as a door nail, and I think that that's a shame. Is anyone out there? Yes and no. I seldom check my e-mails these days, and I spend most of my free internet time in wikis. Alberto Monteiro ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Alberto wrote: Yes and no. I seldom check my e-mails these days, and I spend most of my free internet time in wikis. Hey Alberto, how are you? I heard you had a little rainstorm down there a few weeks ago; what was it 21 inches? What wikis? Doug ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On Wed, Apr 28, 2010 at 10:02 PM, Doug Pensinger brig...@zo.com wrote: Maybe we've already had this discussion, but have you read Banks' Transition? No, and I do not plan to. I'll read any Culture novel he writes, but I am not interested in his political ideology. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Doug Pensinger wrote: Yes and no. I seldom check my e-mails these days, and I spend most of my free internet time in wikis. Hey Alberto, how are you? In deep agony and despair, willing to spread mortal viruses and obliterate mankind - as usual when April ends (it's the deadline for the Great Satan aka IRS.br). I heard you had a little rainstorm down there a few weeks ago; what was it 21 inches? I hate inches :-( What wikis? Wikipedia, Wikibooks, Conservapedia (some normal edits, some vandalisms - vandalizing Conservapedia is a fine art), Uncyclopedia (pt version), even SimsWiki. Alberto Monteiro ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Doug said: Is anyone out there? I'm still here; I don't think that I'll ever unsubscribe from Brin-L and the Culture. I agree that it's been awfully quiet though. Rich GCU Mailing List Fermi Paradox ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On Apr 28, 2010, at 11:26 PM, John Williams wrote: From my point of view, the current political situation in the US is a disaster and just too depressing to even think about. It is depressing, isn't it? What passes for discourse in this country these days brings images to my mind of tribes of screeching monkeys flinging feces at each other. Too many people are focusing all their effort on out-shouting anyone tho disagrees with them, and putting no effort at all into actually listening or trying to gain real understanding. Yes, I find that very depressing indeed. It doesn't help that many of the people now shouting the loudest are people who are, indirectly, actively arguing for their own ruin, because they don't even stop to think what the words they're shouting actually mean, because they proudly refuse to allow their minds to be corrupted by knowledge. Happily, I can't say this describes anyone here. Sadly, it describes a lot of people in a lot of other places. I have no words for how that makes me feel. Depressed just seems to be a pitiful understatement. Giving kickbacks to the wealthy isn't creating wealth, it's just giving kickbacks to the wealthy. -- Toby Ziegler ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Alberto wrote: I hate inches :-( Oops, sorry. Over 50 cm then? Doug Short for communist, I think 8^) ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
On Listmail
Ahem. Hello? Anyone here? I'm kind of curious about what happened to the volume of mail in groups like Brin-L and the Culture list. I have an idea that at first, several years ago now, the emergence of blogging sucked a lot of people away from list mail. And now social networking sites have all but killed them. I could be wrong, I only belong to the two lists. There may be lists that are thriving, but I'm guessing that most of them have seen a serious decline in traffic. Its a shame really because I think that lists are a much better forum for the exchange of ideas than either personal blogs or Facebook type forums. Blogs seem far to solipsistic to me; Here's what I think, you can comment if you'd like but I can delete your comments or block you if I don't like what you say and what are you doing here anyway if you don't agree with me. I know that that's a generalization, but I think that in general, blogs discourage discussion and debate. Facebook is the only social network I frequent and while I think it's great and has its place, it's a terrible forum for any kind of serious political debate. For one thing, many of the people you know intimately are probably there, and if they are people you wouldn't want to debate at the dinner table (because you don't want to promote discord) then you probably don't want to get into it with them on Facebook either. And really, that's not what Facebook is for anyway, its more of a hey look at these pictures of my kids or hey isn't this a funny video or (for some) hey I just trimmed my toenails kind of place. Not that that has stopped me from expressing my opinion there now and then. 8^) In any case, poor old Brin-l seems to be as dead as a door nail, and I think that that's a shame. Is anyone out there? Doug ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On Apr 28, 2010, at 11:07 PM, Doug Pensinger wrote: Facebook is the only social network I frequent and while I think it's great and has its place, it's a terrible forum for any kind of serious political debate. For one thing, many of the people you know intimately are probably there, and if they are people you wouldn't want to debate at the dinner table (because you don't want to promote discord) then you probably don't want to get into it with them on Facebook either. And really, that's not what Facebook is for anyway, its more of a hey look at these pictures of my kids or hey isn't this a funny video or (for some) hey I just trimmed my toenails kind of place. Facebook is a pretty terrible forum for almost anything serious. I've never seen a site that seems to discourage any kind of in depth discussion so effectively by design. The notes feature is the closest thing it has to an actual writing-based feature, and even that is hidden away from the main page out of sight and only quoted there in brief snippets. Not that that has stopped me from expressing my opinion there now and then. 8^) Nor has it stopped me. :D It's Throw Open Our Doors to People Who Want to Discuss Things That We Could Care Less About Day. -- Toby Ziegler ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
On Wed, Apr 28, 2010 at 9:07 PM, Doug Pensinger brig...@zo.com wrote: Ahem. Hello? Anyone here? I agree with most of what you say, but I just haven't felt like starting any discussions on this list recently. The two main things that I have previously been interested in discussing here are SF and politics. From my point of view, the current political situation in the US is a disaster and just too depressing to even think about. As for science fiction, it seems to me that there has been little good science fiction coming out lately. If only David Brin would write a book about Tom Orley and the skiff, that would be fun to discuss here. I normally do not read much fantasy, but with the dearth of science fiction coming out I have been reading some fantasy novels. I recently finished The Desert Spear by Peter V. Brett. That is the sequel to The Warded Man (aka The Painted Man), which is the first book in the series. I'm really enjoying the series so far. Peter really knows how to build a fantasy world and tell a story. And the characters are great, Unfortunately, the next book is not due out until 2012. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
Bruce wrote: Facebook is a pretty terrible forum for almost anything serious. I've never seen a site that seems to discourage any kind of in depth discussion so effectively by design. The notes feature is the closest thing it has to an actual writing-based feature, and even that is hidden away from the main page out of sight and only quoted there in brief snippets. Not that that has stopped me from expressing my opinion there now and then. 8^) Nor has it stopped me. :D I've never even tried to use the notes thing, AFAIK. I just post something political and hope for the best. Doug ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On Listmail
John wrote: I agree with most of what you say, but I just haven't felt like starting any discussions on this list recently. The two main things that I have previously been interested in discussing here are SF and politics. From my point of view, the current political situation in the US is a disaster and just too depressing to even think about. So I take it you're not behind Obama's Wall St. reforms... One interesting thing, apropos to the list, has been the prevalence of the term transparency. I'll bet DB gets a chubby every time he hears Obama use it. The thing that bothers me the most is that purveyors of propaganda (Fox) are so influential. As for science fiction, it seems to me that there has been little good science fiction coming out lately. If only David Brin would write a book about Tom Orley and the skiff, that would be fun to discuss here. I normally do not read much fantasy, but with the dearth of science fiction coming out I have been reading some fantasy novels. I recently finished The Desert Spear by Peter V. Brett. That is the sequel to The Warded Man (aka The Painted Man), which is the first book in the series. I'm really enjoying the series so far. Peter really knows how to build a fantasy world and tell a story. And the characters are great, Unfortunately, the next book is not due out until 2012. Maybe we've already had this discussion, but have you read Banks' Transition? I like history too, so I've been reading a history of the American Revolution and Hume's history of England. For pure pleasure (and because a complete works collection for my Kindle was dirt cheap) I recently re-read Tom Sawyer and Huck Finn. I also bought Dune as I haven't read that in probably 30 years, and a collection of Mil Blogs from the Sandbox http://gocomics.typepad.com/the_sandbox/ Doug ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
