Re: Experts

[Andrew Crystall]

On 6 Jan 2009 at 1:19, William T Goodall wrote:

 What kind of 'expert' can make predictions no better than a coin toss?  

When there's 2 paths, not very expert. When there's 1000...

AndrewC
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Re: Experts

[William T Goodall]

On 4 Jan 2009, at 21:13, Dan M wrote:

 I don't differ with Tetlock's essential findings: the pronouncements  
 of most
 professional pundits in the areas of economics or geopolitics are  
 less than
 worthless.  I've seen separate documentation that, if you use a  
 broker, you
 will, on average, do slightly worse than simply investing in a broad  
 based
 index fund.

Since fund managers charge hefty fees and perform no better than  
chance on average a simple tracker is bound to do better.


 However, having said that, I think that the implications of his work  
 might
 lead one to overstate the case; to state that there is no worth in  
 studying
 or trying to understand finance or geopolitics.  The former has been  
 argued
 extensively here, so let me go to the latter.



What kind of 'expert' can make predictions no better than a coin toss?  
It seems despite their jargon and ability to 'explain' things with  
hindsight that their knowledge is akin to astrology or Freudian  
analysis.

It seems to me that a lot of very smart people are rationalising their  
belief in the modern equivalent of alchemy. Which Isaac Newton wasted  
a lot of time on in his day. And lost his shirt in the Tulip bubble.

Imaginary Patterns Maru

-- 
William T Goodall
Mail : w...@wtgab.demon.co.uk
Web  : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk
Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/

I embraced OS X as soon as it was available and have never looked  
back. - Neal Stephenson

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RE: Experts

[Dan M]

 -Original Message-
 From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On
 Behalf Of William T Goodall
 Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2009 6:35 AM
 To: Brin-L
 Subject: Experts
 
 http://www.guardian.co.uk/culture/2009/jan/04/financial-crisis-anxiety
 
 [...]
 
 In times like these, everyone should have a book by their bedside to
 reach for at three in the morning. If the Bible doesn't work for you,
 Philip Tetlock's nicely oxymoronic volume Expert Political Judgment
 might be an alternative. Tetlock's book is based on two decades of
 research into 284 people who made their living commenting or offering
 advice on political and economic trends. He asked them simply to do
 what they apparently did best: predict what would happen in the world
 next in answer to specific questions. Would oil prices rise or fall,
 would there be a boom or a bust, would we go to war? And so on. When
 the study concluded, in 2003, Tetlock's experts had made 82,361
 forecasts and the results were correlated with the facts as they had
 turned out.

I don't differ with Tetlock's essential findings: the pronouncements of most
professional pundits in the areas of economics or geopolitics are less than
worthless.  I've seen separate documentation that, if you use a broker, you
will, on average, do slightly worse than simply investing in a broad based
index fund.

However, having said that, I think that the implications of his work might
lead one to overstate the case; to state that there is no worth in studying
or trying to understand finance or geopolitics.  The former has been argued
extensively here, so let me go to the latter.

We know, for example, that the Bush White house had total disdain for the
experts in nation building.  After the successful defeat of the Iraq army,
the provisional authority dismissed the experts in the field, and went there
own way, relying on totally unproven techniques.  The results were a
disaster.

In 2006, the US put its COIN expert in charge of the Iraq war.  Since then,
the US has done much better.  Thus, we have a case were the experts were
clearly in the right.

Thus, we seem to have a good example of taking expertise with a grain of
salt, instead of totally disdaining them.

Dan M. 


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