Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-25 Thread John Williams
On Tue, Feb 24, 2009 at 9:22 PM, Dan M

 On the whole, up on the north side of Houston, it's cheaper per sq. ft. per
 year to own than to rent.

Dallas seems to have had little, if any, real estate bubble. It has
the lowest peak to current price decline (9%) of any of the 20 cities
tracked by the Case-Shiller index:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/case-shiller-house-prices-decline.html

If Houston is similar to Dallas, then it probably does not make sense
to talk about a bubble in Houston. Nevertheless, it would have been
more interesting to make your price to rent comparison a few years
ago. As you can see in the link I posted previously, the price to rent
ratios in the country as a whole have come down a lot recently, making
the buy or rent decision closer. The ratios appear to still be
somewhat elevated, but only by perhaps 10 or 20% above a long-run
trend.

I took a look at realtor.com for Houston (although I am not familiar
with the area) and it looks like a typical single family home, about
2000 sq ft, rents for about $1000 per month. A similar home costs
about $120K, so a 30 yr 6% mortgage with 20% down would be around
$600/mo. So  anyone looking to live in the area I was browsing, for
more than a year or two, would probably want to buy. Especially
considering the government's ill-conceived tax credit for first-time
buyers this year (heads up to anyone interested: it ends Dec 1, 2009
not December 31).

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RE: On the Housing Market

2009-02-25 Thread Rceeberger


On 2/24/2009 11:22:40 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote:

 Thanks John!
 Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007
 that
 made me anticipate the bubble bursting.
 Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer?


I
won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for
the coasts, NV, etc,


Sure, those areas were what tipped me off that something was up, though to 
be honest, I anticipated the bubble bursting only in the highly priced areas 
with the rest of the country riding it out mostly unmolested. I saw the loan 
problems as being a parallel situation and never expected such a dramatic 
implosion.




but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a
1350 sq. foot apartment that's
not as nice as my house than it would be if I
bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down,
and
lost the interest on the down payment money.  This figures in all the
costs
of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture
and
books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a
call.


Down on the far south side of town, also on the pricey side of real estate, 
1000 sq ft runs $800 - $1000 depending on how nice the appointments are.  Of 
course there is a price level above and one below, depending on ones income 
bracket.





On the whole, up on the north side of Houston,
it's cheaper per sq. ft. per
year to own than to rent.  I think that's
very unusual for the US, so I
think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown
rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to
rent.

Right now houses in Clear Lake are quite inexpensive. Prices are way down 
from 2005 levels. 10 - 20 percent in many cases. When I was first 
recognizing the bubble, I noticed a lot of billboards advertizing homes in 
the 400-500K range and I wondered who in the hell were buying these homes. I 
still have no idea.


For John, one of the better real estate sites I visit is HAR.com


xponent
Da Moneez Maru
rob 



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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-25 Thread David Brin
I'm testing by replying once with Re: in the subject line and once without.

If only the Re: comes to me, then we have a PARTIAL version of the old 
method, and I'll ask that folks remove Re: unless they seriously want my 
attention.  (The old Re: Brin: was better)

If I get both, then another solution is needed.

thrive all!

d




From: Rceeberger rceeber...@comcast.net
To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al)  Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 6:25:30 PM
Subject: RE: On the Housing Market


On 2/24/2009 11:22:40 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote:
  Thanks John!
  Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007
  that
  made me anticipate the bubble bursting.
  Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer?
 
 
 I
 won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for
 the coasts, NV, etc,

Sure, those areas were what tipped me off that something was up, though to be 
honest, I anticipated the bubble bursting only in the highly priced areas with 
the rest of the country riding it out mostly unmolested. I saw the loan 
problems as being a parallel situation and never expected such a dramatic 
implosion.


 but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a
 1350 sq. foot apartment that's
 not as nice as my house than it would be if I
 bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down,
 and
 lost the interest on the down payment money.  This figures in all the
 costs
 of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture
 and
 books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a
 call.

Down on the far south side of town, also on the pricey side of real estate, 
1000 sq ft runs $800 - $1000 depending on how nice the appointments are.  Of 
course there is a price level above and one below, depending on ones income 
bracket.


 
 On the whole, up on the north side of Houston,
 it's cheaper per sq. ft. per
 year to own than to rent.  I think that's
 very unusual for the US, so I
 think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown
 rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to
 rent.
 
Right now houses in Clear Lake are quite inexpensive. Prices are way down from 
2005 levels. 10 - 20 percent in many cases. When I was first recognizing the 
bubble, I noticed a lot of billboards advertizing homes in the 400-500K range 
and I wondered who in the hell were buying these homes. I still have no idea.

For John, one of the better real estate sites I visit is HAR.com


xponent
Da Moneez Maru
rob 

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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-25 Thread David Brin
Alas, both versions came through.  Nick, have we run out of solutions here?
david




From: David Brin db...@sbcglobal.net
To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 7:58:46 PM
Subject: On the Housing Market


Testing without Re:




From: Rceeberger rceeber...@comcast.net
To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al)  Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 6:25:30 PM
Subject: RE: On the Housing Market


On 2/24/2009 11:22:40 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote:
  Thanks John!
  Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007
  that
  made me anticipate the bubble bursting.
  Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer?
 
 
 I
 won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for
 the coasts, NV, etc,

Sure, those areas were what tipped me off that something was up, though to be 
honest, I anticipated the bubble bursting only in the highly priced areas with 
the rest of the country riding it out mostly unmolested. I saw the loan 
problems as being a parallel situation and never expected such a dramatic 
implosion.


 but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a
 1350 sq. foot apartment that's
 not as nice as my house than it would be if I
 bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down,
 and
 lost the interest on the down payment money.  This figures in all the
 costs
 of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture
 and
 books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a
 call.

Down on the far south side of town, also on the pricey side of real estate, 
1000 sq ft runs $800 - $1000 depending on how nice the appointments are.  Of 
course there is a price level above and one below, depending on ones income 
bracket.


 
 On the whole, up on the north side of Houston,
 it's cheaper per sq. ft. per
 year to own than to rent.  I think that's
 very unusual for the US, so I
 think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown
 rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to
 rent.
 
Right now houses in Clear Lake are quite inexpensive. Prices are way down from 
2005 levels. 10 - 20 percent in many cases. When I was first recognizing the 
bubble, I noticed a lot of billboards advertizing homes in the 400-500K range 
and I wondered who in the hell were buying these homes. I still have no idea.

For John, one of the better real estate sites I visit is HAR.com


xponent
Da Moneez Maru
rob 

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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-25 Thread Medievalbk
 
In a message dated 2/25/2009 9:00:34 P.M. US Mountain Standard Time,  
db...@sbcglobal.net writes:

Alas, both versions came through.  Nick, have we run out of  solutions here?
david



...with no Re grets?
 
What is a gret anyway?
**A Good Credit Score is 700 or Above. See yours in just 2 easy 
steps! 
(http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100126575x1218822736x1201267884/aol?redir=http:%2F%2Fwww.freecreditreport.com%2Fpm%2Fdefault.aspx%3Fsc%3D668072%26hmpgID
%3D62%26bcd%3DfebemailfooterNO62)
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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-24 Thread John Williams
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/house-prices-real-prices-price-to-rent.html

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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-24 Thread Rceeberger


On 2/24/2009 1:05:34 PM, John Williams (jwilliams4...@gmail.com) wrote:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/house-prices-real-prices-price-
to-rent.html



Thanks John!
Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007 that 
made me anticipate the bubble bursting.

Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer?


xponent
A Question Of Balance Maru
rob 



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RE: On the Housing Market

2009-02-24 Thread Dan M
 Thanks John!
 Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007
 that
 made me anticipate the bubble bursting.
 Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer?


I won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for
the coasts, NV, etc, but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a
1350 sq. foot apartment that's not as nice as my house than it would be if I
bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down, and
lost the interest on the down payment money.  This figures in all the costs
of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture and
books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a
call.

On the whole, up on the north side of Houston, it's cheaper per sq. ft. per
year to own than to rent.  I think that's very unusual for the US, so I
think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown
rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to
rent.

Dan M. 
 


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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-23 Thread dsummersmi...@comcast.net


Original Message:
-
From: David Hobby hob...@newpaltz.edu
Date: Mon, 23 Feb 2009 00:08:53 -0500
To: brin-l@mccmedia.com
Subject: Re: On the Housing Market


Rceeberger wrote:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-chart-thats-worth-1000-words-2009
-2 
 
 
 Housing prices may still have a ways to fall.

Rob--

Wow.  That's certainly what the chart shows.

Is it really that clear?  If it were, you'd
think that enough investors would have bet
against the housing bubble that it never
would have happened.


The bubble was that clear, particularly where housing prices skyrocketed up
on the coasts, in NV, etc. There is no way that a doubling in price is
anything but a bubble. But, the house I sold, I had to put in about $10k of
upgrades and sold at about 10k over what I bought (in inflation ajdusted
dollars), so the bubble isn't everywhere.  But, we're now starting to drop
in value as the market dries up.

Houses are now much bigger than they were in the '50s, GDP per capita is
much higher, etc.  So, a rise in inflation adjusted home prices is not
inherently inappropriate: one would not expect to pay the same price for a
3000 sq. ft. house as for a 1500 sq. ft. house, especially if the 3000 sq.
ft. house is much nicer. The rent vs. own question is still important. 
Right now, we're living in a 1350 sq. ft. apartment that costs more than
our mortgage payments were on our 3000 sq. ft. house.  Working it all out,
if it wasn't for the value of getting our appreciation while we did and the
relative ease of leaving an apartment when Teri got called, it would have
been cheaper to stay in the big house, maintaince costs and all.

Dan M. 

So, home prices could now be 10% overvalued.  


mail2web - Check your email from the web at
http://link.mail2web.com/mail2web



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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-23 Thread Nick Arnett
On Mon, Feb 23, 2009 at 6:50 AM, dsummersmi...@comcast.net 
dsummersmi...@comcast.net wrote:



 The bubble was that clear, particularly where housing prices skyrocketed up
 on the coasts, in NV, etc. There is no way that a doubling in price is
 anything but a bubble.


What's your definition of a bubble?  Artificially inflated prices (not
related to supply and demand)?  A large price increase that is sure to
correct?  It seems like a mushy term.

I'm asking not to argue, but to get at what this really means.  There is no
doubt, is there, that sometimes prices (of some things, at least) shoot up
for legitimate reasons.  When we get a sharp rise followed by a sharp
correction, we can point backwards and say Bubble!  But how do we know
that a doubling in price is a bubble unless it is followed by a big
correction?

Wikipedia: An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative
bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, or a
speculative mania) is trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably
at variance from intrinsic values.

Has the real estate volume been high in recent years?  Or may that's not the
right question - the volume of mortgages certainly has been high, but the
price of mortgages hasn't shot up.

Intrinsic values is a problematic term, since economic value is generally
defined in terms of how much of one thing we're willing to give up for
another.  Apparently people have been willing to give up a lot of money (or
do I mean solvency?) for real estate lately.  Banks have been, at least.

In the stock market, we talk about fundamentals and technical analysis.  It
seems like fundamentals have been forgotten in the real estate market...
such as the relationship between rents and valuations, which somebody here,
as I recall, pointed out was a pretty good indicator that we were in a
bubble.

Nick
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Re: On the Housing Market

2009-02-22 Thread David Hobby

Rceeberger wrote:
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-chart-thats-worth-1000-words-2009-2 



Housing prices may still have a ways to fall.


Rob--

Wow.  That's certainly what the chart shows.

Is it really that clear?  If it were, you'd
think that enough investors would have bet
against the housing bubble that it never
would have happened.

---David

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