Re: Returning to Heath Care

2009-08-20 Thread John Williams
On Thu, Aug 20, 2009 at 2:17 PM, Dan Mdsummersmi...@comcast.net wrote:

 Well, the problem just gets personalized when you remove the government.

Backwards. Health care is personal to begin with. Government gets added later.

 Thus, it is a fact that countries with more governmental involvement have
 cheaper, better results.

No, better results is not a fact, it is your opinion. Better is a
judgment made by each consumer. Each consumer has different wants and
needs.

 the posts from you that I see seem to have a pattern of ignoring facts that
 falsify simplistic libertarianism.

Did you just complain about people not replying to your posts? Because
this is the third time in a short time that I have seen you write
something like this that makes me not want to discuss anything with
you. If someone does not agree with your opinions, then they are
ignoring facts. Not a great attitude if you want to have a
discussion with someone. Don't be surprised if I do not respond to you
much in the future (although currently, the list seems broken...)

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Returning to Heath Care

2009-08-19 Thread dsummersmi...@comcast.net

Since folks have expressed the desire to resume debating health care, I
decide to put out some of the facts concerning health care and public
opinion.

1) People want costs contained.

2) Most people, particularly the elderly, are fairly happy with what they
have now, but fear the future.

3) The majority of the elderly, who are on government health care, oppose
government interference in health care.

4) Any minor hint at adressing the massive amount of money spent
transferring the last week of life into the last month of life will raise a
firestorm.  The safe side for any politician is to call these death panels
and be against them.

5) Folks don't want government interfering with their private employer
health care.


Therefore, I conclude that folks want health care costs contained without
doing anything that might possibly affect them in order to contain costs.

I am now leaning towards the opinion that we will face this problem only
after Medicare requires a 500 billion/year payment from the government
after its funds are exhausted.  Californias refusal to face its obvious
unsustainable position during the last decade until the roof  caved in
provides good precident for this.


Dan M. 


mail2web.com - Microsoft® Exchange solutions from a leading provider -
http://link.mail2web.com/Business/Exchange



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Re: Returning to Heath Care

2009-08-19 Thread John Williams
On Wed, Aug 19, 2009 at 5:41 AM,
dsummersmi...@comcast.netdsummersmi...@comcast.net wrote:

 3) The majority of the elderly, who are on government health care, oppose
 government interference in health care.

Nicely stated.

 5) Folks don't want government interfering with their private employer
 health care.

Right, including government interfering by removing the government
interfering tax subsidy for employer plans. Ironically, I think there
would be less resistance to adding an equivalent tax subsidy for all
non-employer plans, which of course is financially equivalent to
removing the employer-plan subsidy.

 Therefore, I conclude that folks want health care costs contained without
 doing anything that might possibly affect them in order to contain costs.

I agree, and I think the main cause of this attitude is that most
people are spending other people's money.

 I am now leaning towards the opinion that we will face this problem only
 after Medicare requires a 500 billion/year payment from the government
 after its funds are exhausted.

At some point, the younger generations are going to balk at sending
over half their income to the older generations. Demographics for the
next 40 years can be easily and accurately predicted (assuming no
large immigration changes). See for example:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/us-population-distribution-by-age-1950.html

Clearly the ratio of under-65 to over-65 is undergoing a drastic
change. The uncertainty comes in at what point the younger generations
will balk at paying most of their income for the older generations.

I agree that a political solution is unlikely. Already, ObamaCare is
looking like less than 50% to pass, and if it does pass, it will
probably not have any meaningful changes.

I wonder if more consumer-driven health care might slip in without an
explicit government reform, similarly to how many pension plans
changed from defined benefit to defined contribution over the past
several decades. Perhaps more employers will switch to plans like
Whole Foods, with HSAs and higher deductibles. That is still some way
from true consumer-driven health care, but the Whole Foods employees
do vote on their benefits, so there is some small amount of consumer
choice. And most surveys of highly-rated places to work that I have
seen put Whole Foods high on the list.

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