Re: [cayugabirds-l] Hurricane Joaquin

2015-10-01 Thread Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes
Darn. Good for the people, good for the birds, unfortunate for inland hurricane 
bird seekers...

Latest forecast shows Hurricane Joaquin to make a Northeast turn and head out 
to the Atlantic. Appears that a building high pressure ridge over the Great 
Lakes and a stronger high pressure ridge over the Atlantic will encourage this 
latest forecast to hold true.

But, forecasts do change…

Good birding!

Sincerely,
Chris T-H

On Oct 1, 2015, at 8:10 AM, Peter 
> wrote:

A couple of sites I use in my Meteorology class for folks interested in 
following the autumn migration:

World Wind Map
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-103.57,27.93,378
(once loaded, you can click and drag the globe to locate it in any position 
you'd like)

U.S. Wind Map
http://hint.fm/wind/

Hope some can find some use for them.
Be well all.
Pete Saracino

On 9/30/2015 8:15 PM, David Nicosia wrote:
Chris,

You beat me to it. I have been so busy at work to send anything to the group. 
But early next week could be a great time for oceanic birds as you state. Some 
of our latest model guidance though suggests a landfall farther south now in NC 
or VA and then the storm comes up the eastern seaboard in a much weakened state 
through our area or just to the east. Sandy came in on the NJ coast to southern 
PA and we saw pelagic birds. If the storm trends south to NC on landfall but 
eventually works north I wonder if we would have a pelagic fallout? In any 
event, I think the potential will be there for a lot of grounded migrants so 
even if we don't see many pelagic birds there could be good fallouts of other 
species...like more Hudsonian Godwits, maybe an American avocet, or some 
othersso early next week could be awesome. Bad weather = good birds!!   Of 
course we do have a few models that veer the storm out to sea and we would see 
nice weather next week!!!

Stay tuned...

Dave Nicosia

On Tue, Sep 29, 2015 at 9:45 PM, Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes 
<c...@cornell.edu> wrote:
Just a heads-up…

I happened to check some of my weather references for the coming week and 
noticed that Tropical Storm Joaquin, currently just East of the Bahamas, is 
forecast to make landfall around the Delmarva Peninsula or Cape May, NJ areas 
as a Category 2 Hurricane (976mb) around 8am Sunday morning (10/4). This system 
will then weaken to a Category 1 Hurricane (992mb) as it moves North through 
central New York, just East of the Finger Lakes Region, on Monday morning 
(10/5) through midnight Monday night and gradually drifting Northeast through 
Tuesday and departing by Wednesday morning (10/7).

Be prepared and have a watchful eye for unexpected and typically pelagic 
seabirds on sizable lakes anytime Monday through Wednesday (10/5-10/7) and on 
the days following the departure of this system from our area, as birds filter 
from Lake Ontario back toward the ocean (10/7-10/9).

The only caveat with this alert is that this is a forecast, and forecasts 
change – especially forecasts greater than a few days out. So, everything 
mentioned above is purely meant as a heads-up to check your favorite weather 
forecast site for more information as Tropical Storm Joaquin develops into a 
Hurricane and heads our way.

Good luck and good birding!!

Sincerely
Chris T-H

PS - one of my favorite sites to evaluate large scale storm systems is Magic 
Seaweed: 

 http://magicseaweed.com/US-Northeastern-Seaboard-Surf-Chart/20/?chartType=PRATE


--
Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes
Field Applications Engineer
Bioacoustics Research Program, Cornell Lab of Ornithology
159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York 14850
W: 607-254-2418   M: 607-351-5740   F: 
607-254-1132
http://www.birds.cornell.edu/brp

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RE:[cayugabirds-l] Hurricane Joaquin

2015-09-30 Thread Kevin J. McGowan
Chris,

Thanks for the heads-up. Remember, all the good birds are on the east side of 
these storms, so we want it to pass to our west. If it stays to the east, all 
we get are heavy rains. The forecast at 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents makes it look iffy 
for us.

Best,

Kevin


From: bounce-119721746-3493...@list.cornell.edu 
[mailto:bounce-119721746-3493...@list.cornell.edu] On Behalf Of Christopher T. 
Tessaglia-Hymes
Sent: Tuesday, September 29, 2015 9:46 PM
To: CAYUGABIRDS-L
Subject: [cayugabirds-l] Hurricane Joaquin

Just a heads-up...

I happened to check some of my weather references for the coming week and 
noticed that Tropical Storm Joaquin, currently just East of the Bahamas, is 
forecast to make landfall around the Delmarva Peninsula or Cape May, NJ areas 
as a Category 2 Hurricane (976mb) around 8am Sunday morning (10/4). This system 
will then weaken to a Category 1 Hurricane (992mb) as it moves North through 
central New York, just East of the Finger Lakes Region, on Monday morning 
(10/5) through midnight Monday night and gradually drifting Northeast through 
Tuesday and departing by Wednesday morning (10/7).

Be prepared and have a watchful eye for unexpected and typically pelagic 
seabirds on sizable lakes anytime Monday through Wednesday (10/5-10/7) and on 
the days following the departure of this system from our area, as birds filter 
from Lake Ontario back toward the ocean (10/7-10/9).

The only caveat with this alert is that this is a forecast, and forecasts 
change - especially forecasts greater than a few days out. So, everything 
mentioned above is purely meant as a heads-up to check your favorite weather 
forecast site for more information as Tropical Storm Joaquin develops into a 
Hurricane and heads our way.

Good luck and good birding!!

Sincerely
Chris T-H

PS - one of my favorite sites to evaluate large scale storm systems is Magic 
Seaweed: 
http://magicseaweed.com/US-Northeastern-Seaboard-Surf-Chart/20/?chartType=PRATE


--
Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes
Field Applications Engineer
Bioacoustics Research Program, Cornell Lab of Ornithology
159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York 14850
W: 607-254-2418   M: 607-351-5740   F: 
607-254-1132
http://www.birds.cornell.edu/brp

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[cayugabirds-l] Hurricane Joaquin

2015-09-29 Thread Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes
Just a heads-up…

I happened to check some of my weather references for the coming week and 
noticed that Tropical Storm Joaquin, currently just East of the Bahamas, is 
forecast to make landfall around the Delmarva Peninsula or Cape May, NJ areas 
as a Category 2 Hurricane (976mb) around 8am Sunday morning (10/4). This system 
will then weaken to a Category 1 Hurricane (992mb) as it moves North through 
central New York, just East of the Finger Lakes Region, on Monday morning 
(10/5) through midnight Monday night and gradually drifting Northeast through 
Tuesday and departing by Wednesday morning (10/7).

Be prepared and have a watchful eye for unexpected and typically pelagic 
seabirds on sizable lakes anytime Monday through Wednesday (10/5-10/7) and on 
the days following the departure of this system from our area, as birds filter 
from Lake Ontario back toward the ocean (10/7-10/9).

The only caveat with this alert is that this is a forecast, and forecasts 
change – especially forecasts greater than a few days out. So, everything 
mentioned above is purely meant as a heads-up to check your favorite weather 
forecast site for more information as Tropical Storm Joaquin develops into a 
Hurricane and heads our way.

Good luck and good birding!!

Sincerely
Chris T-H

PS - one of my favorite sites to evaluate large scale storm systems is Magic 
Seaweed: 
http://magicseaweed.com/US-Northeastern-Seaboard-Surf-Chart/20/?chartType=PRATE


--
Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes
Field Applications Engineer
Bioacoustics Research Program, Cornell Lab of Ornithology
159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York 14850
W: 607-254-2418   M: 607-351-5740   F: 
607-254-1132
http://www.birds.cornell.edu/brp


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