A common theme in the media the past couple of years has
been that the world is running out of oil, and that energy prices will do
nothing but head higher for the rest of time. Well, a University of Washington
economic geologist issued a statement on Thursday not only refuting such
contentions, but also claiming that we will never fully deplete
the earths supply of black gold:
If you think the world is on the verge of running out of oil or other
mineral resources, you've been taken in by the foremost of seven myths about
resource geology, according to a University of Washington economic
geologist.
"The most common question I get is, 'When are we going to run out of oil.'
The correct response is, 'Never,'" said Eric Cheney. "It might be a heck of a
lot more expensive than it is now, but there will always be some oil available
at a price, perhaps $10 to $100 a gallon."
The press release continued:
Changing economics, technological advances and efforts such as recycling
and substitution make the world's mineral resources virtually infinite, said
Cheney, a UW professor emeritus of Earth and space sciences. For instance, oil
deposits unreachable 40 years ago can be tapped today using improved
technology, and oil once too costly to extract from tar sands, organic matter
or coal is now worth manufacturing. Though some resources might be costlier
now, they still are needed.
Cheney used simple economics to dispel the notion that energy prices are at
all-time highs:
It might seem that oil supplies are running low in a time when gasoline has
reached $3 a gallon. But Cheney who has been on the UW faculty since 1964
and has consulted extensively for government and industry notes that gas
prices today, adjusted for inflation, are about what they were in the early
20th century. Today's prices seem inordinately high, he said, because crude
oil was at an extremely low price, $10 a barrel, just eight years ago and now
fetches around $58 a barrel and has been as high as $78.
Cheney blamed common misconceptions for negatively impacting the number of
students entering the field of geology:
As major economies, such as those in China and India, develop and are on
the verge of greater demand for mineral resources, he said, it is an opportune
time for universities to train a new crop of resource geologists who can
understand the challenges and help find solutions. He believes that popular
but misguided notions about mineral resources might be hampering students from
entering the field.
The professor then listed some of these myths that he would like to
dispel:
- Only basic extraction and processing costs affect economic geology. That
fails to account for such costs as exploration, transportation, taxes and
societal and environmental programs.
- Production always damages the environment. Accidents do happen, Cheney
said, but much of the perception is based on problems of the past and don't
reflect current reality. "It's inevitable that there are going to be oil
spills, just like tere are traffic accidents on the freeway," he said. "We
hope we can manage them, but nothing is risk free."
- Mineral deposits are excessively profitable. Despite widely reported
huge oil company profits in the last year, Cheney notes that as a percentage
of company revenues oil profits lag far behind those of some major software
and banking companies.
- Transportation costs are trivial. In fact, the retail cost of building
materials such as sand and gravel are largely driven by the cost of moving
them from one place to another, particularly in crowded urban areas. Moving
quarries and pits farther away from where people live only increases those
costs.
- Ore deposits are uniform. While a valued ore can be found in a large
continuous deposit, often it is mixed with other kinds of minerals and
extraction becomes more expensive.
- Resources are randomly distributed and so, if human population
encroaches, a mine or quarry should simply be able to relocate.
Cheney concluded by expressing the need for a better educated public when it
comes to such issues:
"The point is that we have to have members of the public who are not
geologists and who know something about mineral resources. There are going to
be some important policy decisions in the next decades, so we need to have
some smart voters," he said. "We can start in colleges by dispelling myths in
courses for students who are not going to become professional
geoscientists."
It appears that Cheneys pleas are falling on deaf ears. According to Google
and LexisNexis searches, with the exception of United Press
International, there is little evidence that the media are interested in
disseminating the professors views. Color me unsurprised.
Of course, it seems better than even money that this would have been
front-page news on Friday if Cheneys statement said that we would run out of
oil in less than twenty years. As such, this appears to be another instance when
science that doesn't fit into the media's agenda will never be seen by the
public. How disgraceful.