From: Romi Elnagar <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: August 4, 2008 3:29:09 PM PDT
To: Romi Elnagar <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [BushShouldHaveBeenImpeached] Ray McGovern: Israel Planning
a September/October Surprise? (dissentmag)
Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Israel Planning a September/October Surprise? by Ray McGovern
July 18, 2008
By Ray McGovern
17/07/08 “ICH” — -You say you expected more rhetoric than reality from
Senators Obama and McCain yesterday in their speeches on Iraq and
Afghanistan? Well, that’s certainly what you got.
What I find nonetheless amazing is how they, and the pundits, have
taken such little notice of the dramatic change in the political
landscape occasioned by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s
bombshell on July 7 — his insistence on a “timetable” for withdrawal
of US troops before any accord is reached on their staying past the
turn of the year.
Responding to a question at his press conference yesterday, President
George W. Bush showed that he was vaguely aware that the timetable is,
as Robert Dreyfuss says (in Truthout, July 7), a “big deal.” Bush even
alluded haltingly to the possibility of extending the UN mandate still
further.
But it is far from clear that Maliki, who is under great domestic
pressure, would be able to sell that to the various factions upon
which he depends for support, much less to those which he must keep at
bay. As Dreyfuss points out, Maliki and his Shiite allies are also
under considerable pressure from Iran, which remains the chief ally of
the ruling alliance of Shiites. Most important, Maliki is by no means
in control of what happens next.
Israel
Here’s where it gets sticky. No one who knows about third rails in US
politics would expect the candidates or the fawning corporate media
(FCM) to address how those now running Israel are likely to be looking
at the implications of a large US troop withdrawal from Iraq next year.
I am remembering how I was pilloried on June 16, 2005, immediately
after Congressman John Conyers’ rump-Judiciary Committee hearing in
the bowels of the Capitol, for a candid answer to a question from one
of his colleagues; i. e., if the invasion of Iraq was not about WMD,
and not about non-existent ties between Iraq and al-Qaeda, then why
did we attack?
In answer, I used the acronym OIL. O for oil; I for Israel; and L for
Logistics, meaning the military bases deemed by neoconservatives as
necessary to protect both. Neither the House members present nor the
media people seemed to have any problem with oil and military bases as
factors-in itself an interesting commentary.
However, the suggestion that one main motive was an attempt to make
that part of the Middle East safer for Israel (yes, folks, the neocons
really thought that attacking Iraq would do that) — well, that was
anathema.
As it is anathema today to suggest that this is still one of the main
reasons, besides oil, that Elliott Abrams, other neocons — not to
mention Vice President Dick Cheney and his team — insist we must stay,
Maliki and his associates be damned. (See the cartoon in the
Washington Times today showing Maliki and words telling him “We are
NOT leaving.”)
Here in Washington we can sit back and quibble over the implications
of such remarks by Maliki and other Iraqi leaders. The Israelis have
to take such statements seriously. No agreement on US forces staying
into 2009 without a timetable for withdrawal? For Tel Aviv, this is
getting very serious.
My guess is the Israeli leaders are apoplectic. The fiasco in Iraq
clearly has made the region much more dangerous for Israel. There are
actually real “terrorists” and “extremists” now in Iraq, and the
prospect of US troops leaving has got to be a cause of acute concern
in Tel Aviv.
Keeping the US Entangled: Iran
This dramatic change — or even just the specter of it — greatly
increases Israel’s incentive to ensure the kind of US involvement in
the area that would have to endure for several years. The Israelis
need to create “facts on the ground” — something to guarantee that
Washington will stand by what U.S. candidates, including Sen. Obama,
call “our ally.” (Never mind that there is no mutual US-Israel defense
treaty.) Israel is all too painfully aware that it has only six more
months of Bush and Cheney.
The legislation drafted by the American Israel Public Affairs
Committee (AIPAC) being so zealously promoted in Congress calls for
the equivalent of a blockade of Iran. That would be one way to
entangle; there are many others.
The point is that the growing danger that the Israelis perceive will
probably prompt them to find a way to get the US involved in
hostilities with Iran. Cheney and Bush have pretty much given them
that license, with the president regularly pledging to defend “our
ally” if Israel is attacked.
All Israel has to do is to arrange to be attacked. Not a problem.
There are endless possibilities among which Israel can choose to
catalyze such a confrontation — with or without a wink and a nod from
Cheney and Abrams. The so-called “amber light” said to have been given
to the Israelis is, I believe, already seen as quite sufficient; they
are not likely to feel a need to wait until it turns green.
So far, the resistance of U.S. senior military has been the only real
obstacle to the madness of hostilities with Iran. (And one need only
read Scott Ritter’s article on Truthdig this week to get a sense for
why they would be chary.)
Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Adm. Mike Mullen, has been described
as warning the Israelis that a “Third Front” in the Middle East would
be a disaster. I think, rather, he was trying to warn anyone who might
listen in Washington, including until now tone-deaf lawmakers.
Even if the pundits are correct in suggesting that Mullen is joined by
Defense Secretary Robert Gates in trying to resist the neocons and
Cheney, Mullen’s tone at his press conference two weeks ago suggested
he is fighting a rear guard action-against the “crazies” in the White
House, as well as those in Tel Aviv. And when is the last time the
crazies lost a political battle with such implications for Israel?
Mullen had just returned from Tel Aviv. He appreciates better than
most the fecklessness of endless speculation over whether Israel or
the U.S. might strike Iran first. Even if the Israeli leaders have no
explicit assurances from the White House, they almost certainly
calculate that, once a casus belli is established, their friends in
Washington — and the troops they command — are likely to be committed
to the fray big time.
Seatbelts Please…
Viewed from Tel Aviv it appears an increasingly threatening situation,
with more urgent need to “embed” (so to speak) the United States even
more deeply in the region — in a confrontation involving both
countries with Iran.
A perfect storm is brewing:
– Petraeus ex Machina, with a record of doing Vice President Dick
Cheney’s bidding, takes command of CENTCOM in September;
– Sen. McCain’s numbers are likely to be in the toilet at that point
(because of the economy as much as anything else);
– McCain will be seen by the White House as the only candidate with
something to gain by a wider war (just as by another “terrorist
incident”);
– The Bush/Cheney months will be down to three;
– And Maliki will not be able to cave in to Washington on the timeline
requirement he has publicly set.
In sum, Israel is likely to be preparing a September/October surprise
designed to keep the US bogged down in Iraq and in the wider region by
provoking hostilities with Iran. And don’t be surprised if it starts
as early as August. Israel’s leaders may well plead for understanding
on the part of those U.S. officials not tipped off in advance,
claiming that they could not distinguish amber from green with their
night-vision goggles on.
Would they hesitate? Please tell me who…just who is likely to turn on
the siren, pull them over, and even think of giving them a summons-
once the patrol car computer confirms their privileged licenses?
Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, the publishing arm of the
ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. A former
Army intelligence officer and CIA analyst, he is now on the Steering
Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).
A shorter version of this article appeared first on www.Consortiumnews.com
.
http://dissentmag.wordpress.com/2008/07/18/israel-planning-a-septemberoctober-surprise-by-ray-mcgovern/