India may stop buying Russian
military aircraft and air defense systems altogether
Russian defense industry has suffered
another blow in India as the Russian President Putin was solemnly
declaring friendship to his Indian counterpart. According to Mr. Putin,
"Russia-India relations are developing today in the best possible way."
However, the situation is not so optimistic with regard to prospects for
Russian arms sales to India.
India may stop buying Russian military
aircraft and air defense systems altogether. Meanwhile, the United States
is making unprecedented concessions in the field of military and technical
cooperation while imposing its friendship on India. USA is offering India
to launch joint production of the outdated F-16 fighters in India. The
offer is ostensibly made "in token of friendship." Americans are also
hinting at a potential sale of its much-vaunted Patriot air defense system
to India.
India is now holding a tender for the
order of 126 multi-purpose lightweight fighters for the national air
force. There are 4 bidders at the moment including Russian Aircraft
Concern MiG for the MiG-29M/M2; Lockheed Martin for the F-16; SAAB for the
fighter Gripen; and DASSAULT for the fighter Mirage 2000. In accordance
with the tender terms, a winner should launch licensed production of its
aircraft in India. The Russians believed that their greater flexibility
with regard to licensed aircraft production would be an advantage at the
tender. Representatives of Rosoboronexport indicated earlier that neither
American nor Swedish manufacturers had any experience regarding
cooperation with the Indian side in the area of aircraft assembly.
However, the above circumstances did not prevent the Americans from taking
a step toward the potential customers. Needless to say, the
Indian-assembled F-16 would be a lot cheaper than its equivalent put
together in the U.S. or Europe. There is still an excess of qualified
labor supply in India, and labor costs are low. The Indian air force is
likely to spend as much on domestic assembly of U.S. fighters as it would
spend on licensed production of Russian aircraft. The Americans made an
unprecedented decision, no doubts about it. So far just a handful of
countries has been given such a "privilege" despite the possibility for
partial joint production of the fighter stipulated in the original
provisions of the F-16 development program. The F-16 is currently
manufactured outside the U.S. by Belgium, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands,
and South Korea.
For the first time in history the U.S
is making such an offer to a country that is neither a NATO member state
nor it has Americans troops deployed on its territory. What are the
reasons behind this spectacular move? Aside from economic motivations, it
is obviously a matter of geopolitics.
First, the U.S is beginning to
gradually force out Russian, Ukrainian, and Chinese arms suppliers out of
the region by offering India its state-of-the-art weapons at a reasonable
price. Ukraine and China sell arms mostly to Pakistan, a longstanding
rival of India's. The Americans are dealing successfully with Pakistan
too. The Pakistanis always showed consistency in their simple stance on
the issue of U.S. arms sales to India. They always objected to such deals
while asking for more U.S. arms for themselves. It is unlikely that the
U.S. will fail to cut a similar deal for the F-16 with Pakistan, terms of
a contract will probably copy those of the Indian deal i.e. joint
production of the fighter in a buyer's country. In any case, the issue has
been already discussed during the talks between the U.S. and Pakistan.
Washington is also keen to hold back China's growing influence in
the Asian Pacific region. Shortly after the news about the U.S. plans for
launching joint production of the fighter in India, Reuters put out an
article titled USA: apprehensive about China while selling arms to India.
The article cites Lt. General Jeffrey B. Kohler, director of Cooperation
for Defense and Security. Mr. Kohler believes the modern arms sales to
India and Pakistan that should be viewed only in the context of growing
Chinese strength. The "yellow threat" looks much more scary to the
Americans than the threat posed by the Soviet Union in the past.
Therefore, the U.S. is likely to make any concessions as it supplies more
or less modern weapons to countries which are relatively loyal to America.
Washington aims to reach a sort of local parity with Beijing.
Russia and its arms exports can hardly
qualify for the above geopolitical game. The situation is to advantage of
the Americans since they know better than anybody else that Russia's
defense industry heavily depends on export deals. These days a delay in
talks on any foreign contract can bring about dire consequences including
bankruptcy for any company of the Russian defense industry. Should Russia
leave the traditional markets of the Asian Pacific region (high
profitability and capacity being the main features of the region's
markets), the scale of the Russian defense industry will shrink
significantly. Besides, the move would signify a final devaluation of
Russia's foreign influence in the region.
Sergei
Malinin