Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: January 2, 2007 12:02:36 PM PST
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Stratfor Analysis: Israel's Proxy War on Russia
http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/print.php?storyId=242469
STRATFOR Analysis
January 17, 2005
... Even Putin's political offensive against Russian oligarchs,
many of whom are Jews and Israeli citizens, has not spoiled the
growing ties between Israel and Russia. Though Putin's government
forced three oligarchs out of the country (Boris Berezovsky,
Vladimir Gusinsky and Alexander Smolensky) and put the fourth on
trial (Mikhail Khodorkovsky), a significantly larger number of
oligarchs with Israeli citizenship continue to enjoy powerful
business positions in Russia under Putin's patronage.
However, when Israel started tacitly supporting anti-government
political forces in Russia, Putin and the Russian Security Council
saw it as a violation of Russia's developing trust in its new
Israeli friends. Russian intelligence sources say Israel, acting
through Israeli financiers born in the former Soviet Union (FSU)
and consulting with Mossad, has given major financial and
organizational support to anti-government groups in the FSU, mainly
in Russia and Ukraine. At first Putin tolerated it, sources say,
but events in Ukraine -- where the support of oligarchs with
Israeli citizenship seemed to play a major role in the success of
the anti-Russian "Orange Revolution" -- proved to be too much.
Putin was told, for instance, that several thousand army tents and
hundreds of portable ovens to warm up demonstrators were paid for
by <Russia Mafia kingpin> Semen Mogilevich, a Jewish Ukrainian
oligarch with dual citizenship (Israel and Ukraine) and with strong
ties to U.S. and Israeli financial and government circles.
Putin's once arch-foe in Russia, Boris Berezovsky, an Israeli
citizen enjoying refugee status in Britain, also has contributed
organizationally and financially to the Orange Revolution in
Ukraine. Happy with its success, Berezovsky -- who has never hidden
his lifetime goal of removing Putin from power -- immediately
landed in Kiev after the final round of voting to congratulate pro-
West winner Viktor Yushchenko.
Moreover, quoting Israeli government sources, Israeli television
news reported Jan. 12 that Putin believes the Israeli government
knew about funds provided by Israeli financiers to Yushchenko's
campaign. Furthermore, according to media reports, sources close to
Putin claimed the Israeli government also was backing elements in
Russia's opposition movement.
Finally, Putin was told by Russian intelligence that with the
success of the pro-Western movement in Ukraine, the oligarchs --
Berezovsky, Mogilevich, and others with Israeli citizenships --
already were working with their allies in Israel, Britain and the
United States in planning a similar "revolution" in Russia. Putin
would be overthrown, and an openly pro-Western regime would be
installed that would take good care of the oligarchs and their
business interests.
...
Sources in the Kremlin say Putin would expect Israel and the United
States to stop what the Russian government perceives to be meddling
in Russia's internal affairs. While Israel might give some
assurance that it will lessen its contacts with Russian Jewish
oligarchs, it is unrealistic to expect that oligarchs such as
Berezovsky and Gusinsky, viewing Putin as their deadly foe, will
stop their anti-Kremlin acvities.
Nor would it be feasible to expect that the oligarchs, many of whom
are Israeli citizens and investors in Israel's economy, would ever
be deprived of Israeli support. It is even less likely that the
second Bush administration, apparently set on continuing its
geopolitical offensive against a weakened Russia, will change its
course.
Facing this reality, Putin will have to make a choice: Should he
again go for unilateral concessions, which has been a pattern in
his relations with the West, or should he finally strike back?
Since it would not be a direct political move against the United
States but rather against Israel, we expect he might still sanction
some arms sales to [Israel's Arab enemies].
This is especially likely, given that Arab and Muslim states are
actively courting Russia in hopes of obtaining some political
support to offset U.S. policy in the Middle East.
