Hey COBIrders, I didn’t know what to expect this morning for banding birds at Clear Spring Ranch - but I expected I might see some warblers. Woohoo! Today I only banded 10 birds early, before I got blown out by the West Winds, but those 10 included 4 Ruby-crowned Kinglets (not a surprise, I’ve had about 30 in the last week). The surprises were a juv PALM WARBLER (only my 2nd banded at CSR), and a wayward juv N. Waterthrush - the latest I’ve ever had here by over A MONTH. Did they come from Canada???? Won’t know. Isn’t science fun?
We’ll see now what the front leaves behind tomorrow. Can’t wait! Happy Migration, Steve Brown COS > > COBirders, > I got some responses to my inquiry about what this next cold front might > bring. Nobody thought this was going to be bringing Canadian, Mexican, or > eastern migrants to CO. Most responses suggested that the birds in place > right now would move out with the passage. Those responses seemed to be more > about altitudinal migrants though including my corvid question. My favorite > response was that we should expect murrelets! It's a wonderful thought, but > I am highly doubtful of a movement of murrelets into our location from this > flow pattern. However, that does bring up a good point about where this cold > front is coming from. > > The idea that murrelets were suggested is likely because this front is coming > from the Pacific. Winds are coming from the west with this system. This is > a different type of cold frontal passage for us in CO. They happen more in > winter than in fall like we will experience today. Birds that could move > this direction would likely be migrants moving southward along the West Coast > at this time of year but following the wind patterns inland instead of along > the coast because these are going to be quite strong winds. This is one of > the hardest sets of migrants to get to show up in CO. The Rockies do a great > job of blocking migrants from coming this way. So I am not expecting much of > a change in migrants with this frontal passage. > > I also believe that some of the altitudinal migrants that come into our area > at this time of year might make their numbers more well known (juncos for > instance). Get out before the winds blast us later today if you want to get > your birding in. > > If you are hoping for northern migrants, look no further than Thursday of > this week: > https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/15/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.11,40.20,1064/loc=-105.113,40.203 > > <https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/15/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.11,40.20,1064/loc=-105.113,40.203>. > Northern migrants should be flooding the eastern 2/3rds of the US. I might > get a chance to write again before then, but my time is limited this week, so > this is your fair warning. > > Thanks, > Bryan > > Bryan Guarente > Meteorologist/Instructional Designer > UCAR/The COMET Program > Boulder, CO > > > On Sat, Oct 10, 2020 at 7:57 PM Dave Hyde <pink-b...@hotmail.com > <mailto:pink-b...@hotmail.com>> wrote: > Hi Bryan – I expect the three White-crowned sparrows that have been enjoying > the free lunch here near Storm Mountain in Larimer County since Oct 1st to be > gone by Monday! I think the juncos will remain, though. :) - Dave Hyde, > Larimer Cty. > > > > Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for Windows 10 > > > > From: Bryan Guarente <mailto:bryan.guare...@gmail.com> > Sent: Saturday, October 10, 2020 1:32 PM > To: Cobirds <mailto:cobirds@googlegroups.com> > Subject: [cobirds] Not all cold fronts are created equally... > > > > COBirders, > > There is a cold front coming through tomorrow. I think if you were to ask > COBirders whether a cold front meant good birds in Fall or not, I think most > would say yes, especially if the front comes with precipitation. Go birding > in bad weather! > > > > On the East slope, tomorrow's cold front won't be wet nor cold, just cooler > with some cloud cover. On the West slope, it will be a different story in > terms of precipitation. Definitely expecting precipitation. Hopefully this > will help with some of the wildfire situations. > > > > So today, I am going to try something different. Here is the forecast > graphic for tomorrow after the frontal passage (map is from 3pm local time). > If you were at my CFO presentation the other day, you would know some of the > things to look for in terms of good weather for migrants. Does this look > like it will be a good day to get long-distance migrants from Canada? Should > we expect dispersing migrants affected by Hurricane Delta? Should we be > thinking about tropical species coming up from Mexico and the southwest US? > Where do you see the flow pattern coming from that would dictate the birds we > might expect? > > > > https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/11/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.11,40.20,1064/loc=-105,40 > > <https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/11/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.11,40.20,1064/loc=-105,40> > > > The green circle on that map is around Boulder, CO. Anyone want to play > along and give your weather forecast for migrants based on this map? Are you > expecting turnover of birds? Are you expecting most birds to stay put, but > add other species to the mix with the frontal passage? Is this going to be > the pattern that drives even more corvids out onto the Plains? > > Harder challenge: anyone want to venture a guess about what birds to expect > based on the flow pattern? > > > > All of the previous questions will be answered by the weather and the birds > tomorrow into Monday, but I will wrap up some thoughts later this evening > based on what folks have stated to me privately (paraphrased or summarized > only) and publicly, plus some of my own words to help move the conversation > along. > > > > Thanks for playing along, > > Bryan > > > > Bryan Guarente > > Meteorologist/Instructional Designer > > UCAR/The COMET Program > > Boulder, CO > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Colorado Birds" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to cobirds+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com > <mailto:cobirds+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com>. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/cobirds/CAENnWHsL2wG%3DyEP2yaKA9cro%2B0mXDWfDyJxkSSyc7u0HGH0oWg%40mail.gmail.com > > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/cobirds/CAENnWHsL2wG%3DyEP2yaKA9cro%2B0mXDWfDyJxkSSyc7u0HGH0oWg%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>. > > > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Colorado Birds" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to cobirds+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com > <mailto:cobirds+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com>. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/cobirds/CAENnWHvdeC8OdiOHEWy6UCHcL%2BKfW3-ZjiKzzkyN%3DK-otkKvyg%40mail.gmail.com > > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/cobirds/CAENnWHvdeC8OdiOHEWy6UCHcL%2BKfW3-ZjiKzzkyN%3DK-otkKvyg%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Colorado Birds" group. 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