Re: [Clips] Read two biometrics, get worse results - how it works

2005-10-21 Thread Travis H.
This problem has implications for "sensor fusion" (the latest hot
topic) in IDS; for example when combining host logs (HIDS) with NIDS
alerts.  The risk of false positives is particularly relevant when you
try to write signatures that match similar but unknown bad stuff, and
false negatives when dealing with novel "zero day" attacks.  Sometimes
it's not always clear how to generalize to all the forms an attack
could take (a problem compounded in a closed source environment),
proper decoding of a vulnerable protocol could itself be dangerous or
resource-prohibitive at wire speeds, so you end up with a compromise.

Assuming that one wants to run tests at the equal error rate is a nice
way to reduce the classification error relationship to a single
statistic for analysis, but it's an assumption that may not hold in an
operational environment.  If the false negative costs a life, and a
false positive means inconveniencing someone, you may want to run on
the conservative side of the equal error rate.

An interesting and somewhat related phenomenon is the "base rate
fallacy", which involves a positive test for a rare condition.  Assume
1 in ~1 people have a condition, and the test for it gives a false
positive 1 in 100 times.  Assume you test positive - intuition tends
to tell us that we likely have the condition (after all, the test
correct 99% of the time).  In fact for every true positive, there are
10,000 opportunities for the false positive, so in fact your chances
of actually having the condition are merely 1 in 100.

For a prolonged explanation, see this paper:
http://www.raid-symposium.org/raid99/PAPERS/Axelsson.pdf
--
http://www.lightconsulting.com/~travis/  -><-
"We already have enough fast, insecure systems." -- Schneier & Ferguson
GPG fingerprint: 50A1 15C5 A9DE 23B9 ED98 C93E 38E9 204A 94C2 641B

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Re: [Clips] Read two biometrics, get worse results - how it works

2005-10-21 Thread Steve Schear

At 08:34 PM 10/19/2005, R.A. Hettinga wrote:

 A regular correspondent (thanks, you know who you are) points us to some
 calculations by John Daugman, originator of the Daugman algorithms for iris
 recognition. These ought to provide disturbing reading for Home Office
 Ministers who casually claim that by using multiple biometrics
 (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/10/17/mcnulty_fingers_id_problem/)
 you'll get a better result than by using just the one. Although that may
 seem logical, it turns out that it it isn't, necessarily.


A man with one watch knows what time it is; a man with two watches is never 
quite sure.

-- Attributed by Quote Garden to Lee Segall

Steve 



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Re: [Clips] Read two biometrics, get worse results - how it works

2005-10-20 Thread [EMAIL PROTECTED]
On 10/19/05, R.A. Hettinga <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>  [EDIT]
>  Daugman presents
>  (http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/users/jgd1000/combine/combine.html) the two rival
>  intuitions, then does the maths. On the one hand, a combination of
>  different tests should improve performance, because more information is
>  better than less information. But on the other, the combination of a strong
>  test with a weak test to an extent averages the result, so the result
>  should be less reliable than if one were relying solely on the strong test.
>
I believe the Daugman results are correct only when one accepts
results where the tests disagree. That is, if the first test returns
positive and the second test returns negative, you chose the overall
results to be positive or negative as opposed to "do over until they
agree".

Of course, in real life with knowledge of the physics of the tests and
the ability to pull out non-boolean results, one may be able to remove
many of the "do over" results to keep from annoying the test subjects.

-Michael Heyman

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Re: [Clips] Read two biometrics, get worse results - how it works

2005-10-20 Thread dan

RAH, et al.,

It is true that one can combine two diagnostic
tests to a worse effect than either alone, but
it is not a foredrawn conclusion.  To take a
medical example, you screen first with a cheap
test that has low/no false negatives then for the
remaining positives you screen with a potentially
more expensive test that has low/no false positives.
There is a whole health policy & management
literature on this.  I reproduce the barest
precis of same below, assuming the reader can
manage to view it in a fixed width font while
respecting my hard carriage returns as writ.

--dan



  cheat sheet on terminology of medical diagnostic testing
_

  \  the true situation
   \
\+   -
 +---+---+---
 |   |   |
   + |   a   |   b   |  a+b
what the |   |   |
diagnostic   +---+---+---
test returns |   |   |
   - |   c   |   d   |  c+d
 |   |   |
 +---+---+---
 |   |   |
 |  a+c  |  b+d  |   t

   true positives
  a = positive testers who have disease

   true negatives
  d = negative testers who are without disease

   false positives
  b = positive testers who are without disease

   false negatives
  c = negative testers who have disease

   prevalence
  (a+c)/t = fraction of population that has disease

   sensitivity
  a/(a+c) = what fraction of those with disease test positive

   specificity
  d/(b+d) = what fraction of those without disease test negative

   predictive value positive
  a/(a+b) = what fraction of positive tests have disease

   predictive value negative
  a/(a+b) = what fraction of negative tests are without disease

   Notes:

   Information retrieval people know sensitivity as "recall" and
   predictive value positive as "precision."

   Screening with a cheap test with high sensitivity then an expensive
   test with high specificity is often the best (most cost effective)
   strategy.


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[Clips] Read two biometrics, get worse results - how it works

2005-10-20 Thread R.A. Hettinga

--- begin forwarded text


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 Date: Wed, 19 Oct 2005 23:32:55 -0400
 To: Philodox Clips List <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
 From: "R.A. Hettinga" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
 Subject: [Clips] Read two biometrics, get worse results - how it works
 Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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 <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/10/19/daugman_multi_biometrics/print.html>

 The Register

 Biting the hand that feeds IT
 The Register » Internet and Law » Digital Rights/Digital Wrongs »

 Original URL:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/10/19/daugman_multi_biometrics/
 Read two biometrics, get worse results - how it works
 By John Lettice (john.lettice at theregister.co.uk)
 Published Wednesday 19th October 2005 14:47 GMT

 A regular correspondent (thanks, you know who you are) points us to some
 calculations by John Daugman, originator of the Daugman algorithms for iris
 recognition. These ought to provide disturbing reading for Home Office
 Ministers who casually claim that by using multiple biometrics
 (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/10/17/mcnulty_fingers_id_problem/)
 you'll get a better result than by using just the one. Although that may
 seem logical, it turns out that it it isn't, necessarily.

 Daugman presents
 (http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/users/jgd1000/combine/combine.html) the two rival
 intuitions, then does the maths. On the one hand, a combination of
 different tests should improve performance, because more information is
 better than less information. But on the other, the combination of a strong
 test with a weak test to an extent averages the result, so the result
 should be less reliable than if one were relying solely on the strong test.
 (If Tony McNulty happens to be with us, we suggest he fetches the ice pack
 now.)

 "The key to resolving the apparent paradox," writes Daugman, "is that when
 two tests are combined, one of the resulting error rates (False Accept or
 False Reject rate) becomes better than that of the stronger of the two
 tests, while the other error rate becomes worse even than that of the
 weaker of the tests. If the two biometric tests differ significantly in
 their power, and each operates at its own cross-over point, then combining
 them gives significantly worse performance than relying solely on the
 stronger biometric.

 This is of particular relevance to the Home Office's current case for use
 of multiple biometrics, because its argument is based on the use of three
 types of biometric, fingerprint, facial and iris, which are substantially
 different in power.

 Daugman produces the calculations governing the use of two hypothetical
 biometrics, one with both false accept and false reject rates of one in
 100, and the second with the two rates at one in 1,000. On its own,
 biometric one would produce 2,000 errors in 100,000 tests, while biometric
 two would produce 200. You can treat the use of two biometrics in one of
 two ways - the subject must be required to pass both (the 'AND' rule) or
 the subject need only pass one (the 'OR' rule). Daugman finds that under
 either rule there would be 1,100 errors, i.e. 5.5 times more errors than if
 the stronger test were used alone.

 He concludes that a stronger biometric is therefore better used alone than
 in combination, but only when both are operating at their crossover points.
 If the false accept rate (when using the 'OR' rule) or the false reject
 rate (when using the 'AND' rule) is brought down sufficiently (to "smaller
 than twice the crossover error rate of the stronger test", says Daugman)
 then use of two can improve results. If we recklessly attempt to put a
 non-mathemetical gloss on that, we could think of the subject having to
 pass two tests (in the case of the 'AND') rule of, say, facial and iris.
 Dropping the false reject rate of the facial test (i.e. letting more people
 through) in line with Daugman's calculations would produce a better result
 than using iris alone, but if the facial system rejects fewer people
 wrongly, then it will presumably be accepting more people wrongly.

 Which suggests to us that simply regarding a second or third biometric as a
 fall back to be used only if earlier tests fail constructs a scenario where
 the combined results will be worse than use of the single stronger test,
 because in such cases the primary biometric test would have to be
 sufficiently strong to stand on its own, because you won't always be using
 the second or third test.

 The deployment of biometric testing equipment in the field is also likely
 to have a confusing effect on relative error rates, because environmental
 factors will tend to impact the different tests to different degrees. Poor
 lighting may have an effect on iris and facial but not on fingerprint,
 while the aircon breaking down may produce greasy fingers and puffy red
 faces, but leave