-Caveat Lector- >From the BelfastTelegraph http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/today/oct26/News/afront.ncml {{<Begin>}} 65% still for deal But Protestant vote is divided By Noel McAdam, Political Correspondent SIXTY five per cent of people in Northern Ireland would vote Yes in a new referendum on the Good Friday Agreement, a major opinion poll reveals today. More than 70% of Protestants still want the Good Friday Agreement to work, the survey shows. But a narrow majority of Protestants (51%) say they would now vote 'No' in a Referendum on the AgreementA total of 72% of the Protestant community, including half of DUP supporters, and 98% of Catholics say they want the Agreement to work. The poll the first to be conducted with the collaboration of all the pro- Agreement parties also showed an overall majority (73%) believe the politicians are not doing enough to implement the Agreement. Carried out between October 8 and 15 by Market Research Northern Ireland, the poll of 1,000 people showed Catholic support for the Agreement is holding up. Yet the Protestant vote fell from 64% to 49% ranging from 31% of the DUP electorate to 56% of UUP supporters. But the dramatic drop among Protestants wanting the Agreement to work down from 89% in March was interpreted today as a protest vote. Project author Dr Colin Irwin, of the Institute of Irish Studies at Queen's University, said: "Mr Trimble's voters still want the Agreement to work so most of the shift of 'No' must be seen as protest vote a mid-term expression of frustration with the implementation of the Belfast Agreement."He argued that if the Agreement could be made to work, many who voted against it could be persuaded to give their support but dashed hopes, false expectations and distrust had combined to very nearly destroy it. If the persistent focus on decommissioning was shifted to give more emphasis to the Mitchell principles on non-violence a consensus might be attainable, his research concluded. Both Protestants (88%) and Catholics (63%) said they are most disappointed with the lack of progress on disarmament but Catholics are then 'least satisfied' with reform of the RUC. Eighty per cent of Ulster Unionists back the party's "no guns,no government" stance but a clear majority of both UUP and Sinn Fein supporters believe an inclusive Executive is a necessary part of the decommissioning process. The Sinn Fein electorate also believe their party did the best they could during the summer to move the peace process forward and 88% would blame unionists for the failure of the peace process. More than 70% of those questioned believe the economy will suffer if the Executive is established or Sinn Fein is excluded, and they also fear: community relations will deteriorate, more young people will leave, and paramilitary activity will increase. While 85% of Protestants beieve republican paramilitaries will become more active, however, only 43% of Catholics agree but 73% of Protestants and 67% of Catholics say the loyalist paramilitaries will become more active. "Catholics, particularly Sinn Fein supporters, seem to have more confidence in the IRA ceasefire. Only 27% of them think it will be broken. But that is still 27% too much," he said. Dr Irwin said the implementation of the Agreement would have many difficulties in the years ahead until the parties learn to understand the priorities and concerns of the "other" community. "The new Secretary of State, Peter Mandelson, does not have an easy task ahead of him," he said. © Copyright Belfast Telegraph Newspapers Ltd. {{<End>}} >From TheIrishTimes http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/ireland/1999/1026/index.htm {{<Begin>}} Tuesday, October 26, 1999 Arms haul just drop in worldwide flood There is widespread concern within governments at the flow of sophisticated weapons to irregular forces, writes Col E.D.Doyle For the past few years, "light weapons" have been quietly flowing into "non- governmental hands" in Europe. Less quietly, they have been proliferating in Africa, the Middle East and the Balkans. Concern at interior ministry levels has spread to foreign and defence ministries. The weapons found at Sta mullen, Co Meath, represent a drop compared to the flood of weapons turning up in the west and in Africa. The rocket-propelled grenade RPG18 appeared around 1989/ 90 in the Russian army. The RPG7, the old Warsaw Pact anti-tank grenade, had many successes in the Middle East but was out-dated. It could not penetrate the new explosive "Chobham" armour hung around modern tanks. This armour explodes when a grenade hits it, preventing impact with the main hull. The back blast from the RPG7 betrays the firer's position. The RPG18 is said to have reduced both of these disadvantages. Any RPG, old or new, can be devastating against trucks or other "soft-skinned" vehicles, and that would be the main concern here. RPGs have been used against buildings - and bank vaults - occasionally. The contents are usually destroyed. There has been much research and development on new explosives. "Shaping" the explosives to concentrate penetrating power or spread lasting effects etc, has been achieved. It will be interesting to see what type has been found and if it carries identification mark ers. The power packs will also be interesting. Early speculation is unwise. Several modern weapons have electrical supplies. What are light weapons? For this purpose they are pistols, rifles, sub-machine guns, hand grenades, machine guns up to 0.5 inch (50 calibre), small mortars, shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles and antitank missiles or rockets. In general, weapons which need limited skills to use and little infrastructure to keep operational are light weapons. They are also easily moved and concealed. Where do they come from? Nowadays, the sources are usually indirect. Perhaps 750,000 weapons were stolen from Albanian stores in the month of looting three years ago. Many of these weapons are turning up in western Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Both the Soviet Union and the US supplied arms to Afghanistan. Somewhat reluctantly, the Americans supplied up-to-date Stinger shoulderfired anti- aircraft missiles. These weapons turned up in bazaars elsewhere in the Middle East. The Americans have tried to buy them back, with mixed success. But vital replacement power packs seem to have been successfully blocked. The US army left 5,000 M16 rifles with the Somali police for law and order purposes. Some of them have appeared elsewhere. "Corrupt Czech arms trading in Africa" is said to be another source. This writer has seen no proof. Pakistan is also mentioned. Smugglers prefer smaller goods (diamonds, drugs, etc), but if the price is right rifles, pistols and explosives are hidden in containers and fuel tanks. Random sales by troops account for small numbers. Weapons are said to have leaked from Soviet troops returning from Poland and East Germany. The Jerusalem Post has reported that the Israeli army was losing a weapon a day. The London Independent recently reported that Kosovo Liberation Army weapons, which should have been surrendered to NATO, are for sale in western Europe. These include Warsaw Pact and US weapons. Col E. D. Doyle is a retired Army intelligence officer and military analyst {{<End>}} http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/ireland/1999/1026/index.htm {{<Begin>}} Tuesday, October 26, 1999 Meet IRA, Mandelson advised By Clare Murphy, in Belfast The Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, should bypass Sinn Féin and negotiate directly with the IRA if the current review negotiations between the parties fail, according to an Ulster Unionist Party adviser. Mr Alex Kane, an aide to the UUP Assembly member, Dr Esmond Birnie, was putting forward Dr Birnie's plan for saving the Belfast Agreement and his view that leading republicans have been hinting at changes of strategy within the IRA in recent weeks. Speaking in a personal capacity at the inaugural meeting of the Northern Ireland Political History Society in Belfast last night, Mr Kane suggested that the British government use established "channels of communication" to contact the paramilitary groups directly if the Mitchell review fails to break the impasse over decommissioning and the formation of an executive. Mr Kane said a strategy of "shadow and substance" should be adopted as the May 2000 deadline for total disarmament approaches. The deputy leader of the SDLP, Mr Séamus Mallon, should return as the North's deputy first minister, he said, the Assembly should reconvene to debate day-to- day policy decisions, and parties to which ministerial positions were to be allocated should produce policy programmes for government. He said that for an inclusive executive to be established, the UUP needed a public guarantee that the war was over, "and we need an immediate down payment in the form of the first delivery of their weapons of war. "A stable, firm and democratic government for Northern Ireland remains our ultimate goal, but we will not build it upon a hill of Semtex and rocket launchers." Mr Kane stressed that it was not the Ulster Unionist Party, but the IRA, which was preventing Sinn Féin from entering an executive. However, he said there were "clear signs that the IRA now acknowledge that they are losing the political and moral argument on decommissioning." The Belfast Agreement represented an "honourable and historic" accord and a risk on the part of the UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, and the Sinn Féin president, Mr Gerry Adams. But the IRA had taken no risks. "If the IRA are not prepared to take a risk with their own people, then why should they expect David Trimble to take another risk that the IRA would decommission if he set up the executive tomorrow?" asked Mr Kane. {{<End>}} A<>E<>R ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Integrity has no need of rules. -Albert Camus (1913-1960) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your common sense." --Buddha + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly. -Bertrand Russell + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Everyone has the right...to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers." 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