| http://www.asiaint.com/adb/20010601143443.html#aib1
AsiaInt Daily Briefing 1 June 2001 Koizumi rules out military alliance with America Development: On Thursday Japan's prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, ruled out close military co-operation with the US, but he said: "The stronger relations Japan has with the United States, the friendlier relations it can have with its neighbours such as China, South Korea, and Russia." Assessment: In his interview with the Japanese media, Koizumi was alluding to the external pressure on Japan to take greater responsibility for security in the region, equivalent to its economic primacy - an issue which Koizumi feels needs airing before he meets George W Bush on 30 June. On 18 May the Australian foreign minister, Alexander Downer, said Japan should take "an active role in the security of the region", and late last year the US deputy secretary of state, Richard Armitage, urged Japan to remove constitutional restrictions on the deployment of the Self-Defence Forces (SDF) outside Japanese territory. Although Koizumi is personally in favour of revising Japan's constitution to allow a wider role for the SDF, there is not yet enough popular support for constitutional revision. Koizumi's statement shows that while it is all very well for self-confessed guarantors of international stability like the US and Australia to try to share their security burdens in the region, Japan is not yet ready to participate. Koizumi was also alluding to Japan's poor relations with its close neighbours. China and South Korea have protested strongly about the passage of a history textbook which glosses over Japan's past aggression, and about Koizumi's decision to visit a shrine which commemorates Japanese war dead (see the 18 May Daily Briefing). Beijing is also irritated about recent protectionist trade measures implemented by Tokyo, while relations with Russia have cooled over the Kurile islands dispute. But Koizumi's logic - that closer relations with the US will help resolve these problems - could be questioned. If Japan does commit to closer relations with the US (even within the bounds of the constitution), Beijing will see the move as further evidence of Washington's manoeuvring to protect its interests in the region against China, defined by President Bush as a "strategic competitor". Japan might also be seen as tacitly accepting the US's stance on Taiwan and Tibet. In addition, Russia and China both oppose the US's missile defence plans, and they would object to closer Japan-US ties if this involved Japan's support for the scheme. Nevertheless, Japan's neighbours will have been reassured that constitutional revision does not appear to be an immediate prospect. The re-emergence of a Japan unfettered by its pacifist constitution would open more old wounds in Korea and China than any textbook or shrine visit. Thaksin's popularity could be his saving grace Development: Thailand's Constitutional Court has said that it will hold the final hearing into allegations of corruption against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on 18 June and reach a final verdict in August. Assessment: When Thaksin first came under investigation it was widely assumed that his fate would depend more upon his popularity than the strict legal niceties of case. The constitutional court has always maintained that this is not the case and that it will reach a verdict quite independent of public opinion, and it has recently reiterated this in the light of opinion polls suggesting that Thaksin remains popular and that the majority of Thais want and expect him to be cleared. It is obviously important that any Constitutional Court is seen to be unswayed by the fickle tides of public opinion, but in this case it is hard to believe the judges' protestations. Much has gone wrong for Thaksin in the months since he was elected, and the high expectations that brought him to power have been trimmed by both the government and the electorate. However, he does remain popular and it is hard to see how a constitutional crisis this summer could improve the country's prospects in any way at all - particularly since Thaksin has claimed, convincingly, that if he were to be banned from political office for five years, he would still be able to control things from behind the scenes. The tide of opinion building up against punishing Thaksin is growing, and it is being supported by a wide variety of prominent people in Thai public life. Even the stock market rose when, earlier this week, it appeared that the court's judgement might be leaning in favour of Thaksin. If an argument can be found to clear him, we expect the judges to make it, and to provide excellent legal arguments for doing so. The consequences of not doing so could lead to further unconstitutional activity of a more damaging kind. Philippines' economy lagging behind Development: The Philippines recorded gross domestic product growth of 2.5% in the first quarter of 2001 year-on-year. Assessment: The first-quarter growth figure was the worst for two years, and it is attributable to the combined dampeners of political volatility at home, reduced global demand for electronics products, and a slowdown in the United States. The result means that achieving the original target of 3.8%-4.3% growth this year (or at least the high end of it) now looks unlikely. Whether the lower end can be reached depends on continued domestic demand. Personal consumption expenditure rose 3.5% in Q1 compared to 3.2% in the same period last year, but it dropped from 3.9% growth in Q4 2000. Although the figure was around level with economists' expectations, 2.5% growth in the first quarter will still be seen as something of an underachievement, even taking into account the extenuating circumstances. Indonesia, arguably in a similarly volatile political predicament, recorded 4.01% growth in the first quarter. GDP grew in the same period by 4.5% in Singapore, 3.7% in South Korea, 3.2% in Malaysia, and by an estimated 2.5%-3% in Thailand. Shortly after taking power at the beginning of the quarter, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo declared her intention to turn the Philippines into a technological and economic hub for south-east Asia. Since then many reforms have been put on hold due to an uncertain political climate and a tricky election campaign. The biggest piece of economic legislation - to reform the struggling power sector - has been delayed but is due to be signed on 4 June. If the legislature delays the bill until its next session, Arroyo's grandiose plan (and the Philippines' chance of catching its neighbours) will start to look very unlikely. |
