When Demographics of a country become scewed toward Men, then often the response is
"since we cant make love lets make war."

This tied with america's sale(gift) of nuclear technology to china and the massive 
build up of the military indutrial complex of china
(encoraged by western banks) could(will?) lead to very dangerous situation in a few 
years time.
(it should also be remembered that  western gajin are not quite human and only given 
grudging respect---but as a competing thought is that the chinese have not been an 
imperialistic country and find it difficult to rule other population groups---where 
they have done it
as they did in Tibet they have carried out genocidal activities where 1-2 million 
Tibetans have been killed by chinese rule at the beginning of their rule and where 
they are now carrying out a policy of genetic and cultural overwhelment)





PS Purvin and gertz did a study on the likely crude price in the new millenium and 
came to the conclusion that it will depend almost entirely on one factor- chinese 
growth rate. If the chinese economy doesnt grow then crude is likely to remain in the 
10-20$/bl range that exists at the moment but if the chinese economy continues to grow 
at the present 8%pa then a crude shortage is likely to develop and then the sky 
becomes the limit for the crude price--and the same is likely for other commodities
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<b>CHINESE DEMOGRAPHICS
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6.3 brides for seven brothers

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  </td>
  <td>&nbsp;</td>
</td></tr><tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td>  <td align=center valign=bottom><font 
face='Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size=-2>
BEIJING AND SHANGHAI

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found rubric --></td></tr><tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td><br><img 
src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br><B><font face="Times, Times New Roman" size=2><center>Life is going to be 
lonely for millions of men in the world&#146;s most populous nation        
</font></B></center>

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src="/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/editorial_gifs/h_further_reading.gif" width="92" height="18">
      <IMG SRC="/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/editorial_gifs/null.gif" WIDTH=1 HEIGHT=7><BR>
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      <A HREF="/0KhAc0hZ/tfs/archive_tframeset.html" TARGET="_top">Search 
archive</A><P>
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</table></td><td>&nbsp;</td><td><font face='Times New Roman, Times, serif' size=3>THE 
cheeky eight-year-old son of the local restaurateur in a village not far from Beijing 
is already well informed on the facts of life, Chinese style. He has, he announces, a 
two-month-old baby sister. &#147;The fine was 15,000 yuan,&#148; he adds proudly. A 
second child for a mere $1,800 is quite a bargain&#151;if the family had lived closer 
to Beijing, they might have had to pay 50,000 yuan. And her birthplace was not her 
only stroke of luck: her parents already have a son. China is not a good country in 
which to be conceived as a second daughter.
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>On average, women round the world give birth to 106 baby boys for every 
100 girls; more boys than girls are then lost in childhood. In China, the sex ratio 
for first births matches that average (see table); but for every subsequent birth, the 
surplus of boys increases. This imbalance has been growing rapidly since 1979. In 
1982, there were 107 boys aged under five for every 100 girls; in 1990, 110; in 1995, 
118. &#147;Cumulatively,&#148; says William Lavely, a demographer at the University of 
Washington, &#147;8.7m females are missing from the or roughly 5%. But from those born 
in the 1990s, approximately 10% are missing.&#148;
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<font face="Times New Roman, Times, serif" size=3>China is by no means the only Asian 
country where the ratio of boy to girl babies is on the rise: the same is true in 
South Korea and Taiwan. The rise has gathered pace since the mid 1980s, roughly the 
point when new technologies&#151;often amniocentesis in Korea and Taiwan, mainly 
ultrasound in China&#151;capable of predicting the sex of a fetus with reasonable 
accuracy became available. But in China, the dearth of daughters is a particular 
problem; it will help to create the world&#146;s biggest group of frustrated bachelors.
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>The long-term effect of this surplus of sons will be aggravated by a 
second factor: a dramatic fall in fertility to below replacement level. Such a fall 
has occurred in several East Asian countries: Taiwan and South Korea each have around 
1.4 births per woman; Hong Kong, 1.25. In China, reckons Tu Ping, a demographer at 
Beijing University, the figure may already be down to 1.5 or 1.4 (although most 
western demographers think it is higher); in Shanghai, it seems to be an astonishing 
0.96. &#147;Something in these Confucian cultures produces fertility even lower than 
governments want,&#148; muses Judith Banister, an American demographer based in Hong 
Kong.
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>As a result, the number of people in each new generation of young Chinese 
will begin to decline. Because young men tend to pick younger women as brides, this 
will aggravate the shortage of girls. In South Korea, where fertility has been falling 
for longer and people share the Chinese preference for baby boys, young men in the 
sticks already have difficulty finding a bride. That difficulty will grow rapidly: at 
the time of the 1990 census, there were 27% more Korean boys aged between five and 
nine than girls aged between one and five who might marry them. For these boys, the 
danger is that their older brothers will be forced to pick their brides from the same 
diminished group of girls as they do, in a game of matrimonial musical chairs.
   <br>
   <img src="/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/editorial_gifs/null.gif" width=1 height=14>
   <br>
   <font size=3><b>
<B>Ever younger, ever fewer</B>
   </b></font>

<br><font face="Times New Roman, Times, serif" size=3>Taiwan and Hong Kong can expect 
something similar. These small and wealthy countries will look for brides from their 
ethnic group outside their borders (and South Korean youths will pray for 
reunification with the north). But for China itself, as Nicholas Eberstadt, an 
American demographer, points out, no such solution exists. There are simply not enough 
Chinese women in the world to fill the gap. By 2020, he reckons, the surplus of 
Chinese males in their 20s will exceed the entire female population of Taiwan. And the 
fact that rich Chinese elsewhere are bidding up the price of brides will make the 
problem even worse.
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>Nor are there spare Chinese spinsters sitting on the shelf. Almost all 
Chinese women marry, and always have done: by the age of 30, only 1% of Chinese women 
are unmarried, compared with 15% of western women at the age of 40 (see chart). 
Millions of today&#146;s little boys are thus doomed to perpetual bachelorhood.
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This calamity is the logical culmination of four millennia of Chinese preference for 
sons. Since Confucian times sons alone have been able to sacrifice to the family 
spirits, carry the family name and inherit the family estate. A son is seen as &#147;a 
deposit in the bank&#148;; daughters, who have traditionally left their family home at 
marriage and gone to live with their in-laws, have for centuries been an investment 
without a financial return.
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>According to James Lee, a historical demographer at the California 
Institute of Technology, daughters have been vulnerable to infanticide in both poor 
families and rich ones. Among peasant families in north-eastern China in the century 
after 1774, between one-fifth and one-quarter of all females were killed as children, 
says Mr Lee in a forthcoming book, &#147;One Quarter of Humanity: Malthusian Mythology 
and Chinese Reality 1700-2000&#148; (Harvard University Press, 1999), written with 
Wang Feng of the University of California, Irvine. Mr Lee has also studied the Qing 
dynasty of the 18th and 19th centuries. The grander the family, the larger the dowry 
it was expected to give away with each of its daughters&#151;and so the fewer 
daughters it produced. One in ten of those dynastic daughters was done away with at 
birth.
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By 2020 the surplus of Chinese males will exceed the entire female population of Taiwan

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<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>Female infanticide clearly continues in China, even though it is illegal 
and condemned by the government. Mr Lavely points out that China is unusual in having 
significantly higher infant mortality among girls than boys: 39 per 1,000 girls 
compared with 30 per 1,000 boys, according to a sample census in 1995. In Guangxi 
province, female infant mortality is double that of boys: 82 per 1,000 for girls, 
compared with 34 per 1,000 for boys. &#147;This kind of disparity would set off alarm 
bells in most countries,&#148; he comments, &#147;but Chinese officials have not given 
it much notice and Chinese scholars don&#146;t dare to.&#148;
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>Infanticide was never the only way in which Chinese families disposed of 
unwanted girls. Another approach is to let them live, but not to register them. 
Failing to register a birth is, of course, illegal in China, and unregistered children 
are non-persons, with no right to free education and health care. Families that have 
more sons than they are allowed tend to pay the fine and register them. Those with 
surplus daughters often do not. (In country districts, where parents who have a 
daughter first are generally allowed a second child, some first-born sons are actually 
registered as daughters. This is one of many reasons for taking Chinese birth 
statistics, compiled by officials who may get sacked if their district exceeds its 
allocated number of births, with numerous pinches of salt.)
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>Adoption has always been common in China: in the past, at least 5% of 
Chinese babies have been adopted, almost an order of magnitude more than in any 
western population, past or present. For many families it offered a solution to the 
marriage problem: they adopted a daughter to provide a biddable wife for their son. 
But adoption has been strictly limited by fierce laws that disqualify couples under 35 
years old, and those who already have (or had adopted) children. This law, softened in 
November, was specifically intended to reinforce population-control measures by 
stamping out adoption.
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      <font face='Times New Roman, Times, serif'><i><b><font color="#999999">
Of the 196 girls given away all but 11 were second or subsequent daughters

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<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>In fact, though, as Kay Johnson, an American demographer, points out in a 
recent issue of <I>Population and Development Review</I>, much Chinese adoption has 
always been informal. Many families with unregistered surplus daughters, rather than 
leaving them in the &#147;care&#148; of China&#146;s awful orphanages, simply deposit 
them on the doorstep of a childless neighbour. Illegal, naturally&#151;one family in 
Ms Johnson&#146;s survey called their foundling San Qian, meaning &#147;three 
thousand&#148;, the fine they paid to adopt her&#151;but quite common. Of the 196 
girls given away that Ms Johnson tracked back to their birth-parents all but 11 were 
second or subsequent daughters.
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>Modern technology now offers Chinese parents an alternative to adoption 
and infanticide as a way of dealing with unwanted girls: sex-selective abortion. For 
about a decade, China has had the capacity to produce more than 10,000 high-quality 
ultrasound machines a year, enough to cover every county, and there are enough skilled 
technicians to make use of them. Doctors who use ultrasounds are forbidden to tell 
mothers the sex of the child, but apparently find ways. &#147;I heard of a doctor who 
would nod if the result showed a boy, but rap the table for a girl,&#148; says Bin 
Xuming, a Beijing gynaecologist.
   <br>
   <img src="/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/editorial_gifs/null.gif" width=1 height=14>
   <br>
   <font size=3><b>
<B>Outrageous&#063;</B>
   </b></font>

<br><font face="Times New Roman, Times, serif" size=3>A three-year study of the later 
stages of 1.2m pregnancies in more than 900 Chinese hospitals found that the sex ratio 
for live births rose from 108 in 1989 to 109.7 in 1991. Such an imbalance in such 
closely monitored births could be explained only by the abortion of female fetuses. In 
addition, a recent study of aborted fetuses found that they were disproportionately 
female. Ms Banister argues that the growing availability of sex-selective abortion 
will increasingly change the pattern, not just of second and third births, but of 
first births: as more and more Chinese parents have only one child, they will often 
want to ensure that the child is a boy. &#147;Given that first births are over half of 
all Chinese births, that&#146;s the axe that&#146;s waiting to fall,&#148; she says. 
In parts of South Korea an unnaturally high proportion of even first-born children are 
now sons.
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>Pre-natal sex selection clearly offers a way to combine small families 
with a preference for sons. Not every Asian country takes up the offer: Japan, with a 
sharp fall in fertility, has not seen a rise in the ratio of sons. But in China the 
technology has been used to engineer just such a rise, and the resulting imbalance 
will bring misery to millions of boys, and to their parents, who will be denied 
grandchildren. Many people in the west, though, deplore this use of abortion on the 
grounds not of its effects but of its morality.
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China&#146;s abortion rate is not much higher than America&#146;s (though the figures 
may not be very reliable). Excellent access to contraception for married couples and 
extremely low rates of premarital sex ensure that unplanned births are rare. And 
because abortion is legal and socially acceptable, it is also relatively safe. But 
some of it, at least, is clearly for sex selection. Any pro-life philanthropist 
wanting to save as many as possible of the world&#146;s unborn could do no better than 
to put his money into developing technologies that would allow sex selection before 
conception.
In as much as it replaces infanticide, sex-selective abortion will be seen by most 
people as an improvement; and the evidence suggests that the two are indeed 
alternatives. Ms Banister points out that, in the 1953 census, the sex ratio at birth 
was more or less normal, but that at every age up to 14, girls were more likely to die 
than boys. Over the years, as the sex imbalance at birth has increased, the mortality 
of girls in later childhood has diminished relative to that of boys. But if in 
displacing infanticide it does some good, selective abortion still represents 
discrimination against girls of a particularly profound sort.
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>This worries the Chinese: the theme of discrimination dominated a 
conference held in September by Peng Peiyun, head of the state Family Planning 
Commission, to ruminate on the imbalance. However, as Daniel Goodkind, based until 
recently at the University of Michigan, argues in a forthcoming paper, sex selection 
might well continue in China&#146;s small families, even if the son preference 
vanished, because most parents want a son and a daughter. Chinese parents who already 
have one son appear occasionally to abort their second child if it, too, is a boy. 
&#147;Is sex-selective abortion morally wrong under all circumstances,&#148; he asks, 
&#147;or is it only wrong when parents&#160;.&#160;.&#160;.&#160;exhibit a preference 
for sons&#063;&#148;
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In as much as it replaces infanticide, sex-selective abortion will be seen by most 
people as an improvement

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<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>There is indeed an irony in the fact that, in this matter, the 
traditionally feminist &#147;pro-choice&#148; position has meant encouraging 
discrimination against women. But if mothers are to be free to terminate a pregnancy 
when they do not want the baby, why should they not do so if they do not want a baby 
of a particular sex&#063; Indeed, sex selection may improve the condition of the girls 
who survive, ensuring that they are wanted by their families.
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>The most practical objection to sex-selective abortion is the long-term 
effect on society. Mao Zedong railed against the shortage of wives for poor men, and 
since then the shortage has grown: in 1990, one in five illiterate men aged 40 had 
never married. A bride shortage hurts the poor and the rural in particular. Chinese 
commentators fear the effect on public order, painting a picture of bands of 
testosterone-crazed youths roaming the countryside, raising hell. Some argue that the 
shortage of brides will encourage a boom in the supply of girls. The trouble with this 
faith in the market is that China has almost always had a surplus of 
bachelors&#151;sometimes a much greater one than it will have in the first quarter of 
the next century.
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>So far, the main effect of the shortage of women seems to be nasty 
behaviour towards them. Official figures suggest that 64,000 women have been rescued 
from forced marriages since 1990. Xie Lihua, editor of <I>Rural Women Knowing All</I>, 
an immensely successful magazine (fancy a readership of 50m-60m&#063;), describes how 
she helped to rescue two readers from Sichuan province who had been kidnapped and 
married off to men in Guangdong. But such errands of mercy are sometimes unwelcome. 
&#147;Often when the police arrive, the villagers surround them and threaten to beat 
them up,&#148; she says. &#147;They don&#146;t object if somebody has paid for a wife. 
They don&#146;t want to see the village die out.&#148;
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>Two other changes would be more likely to reduce the surplus of boys. One 
would be a further relaxation of the one-child policy. For many Chinese the ideal 
family consists of a boy and a girl. If Chinese parents were allowed to select the sex 
of their children, and continued to enjoy good access to birth control, they might 
disproportionately select sons for their first children&#151;although, with freedom to 
have a second shot, many families might well allow nature to make the decision first 
time around. Second children, however, would frequently be selected to be of the 
opposite sex to the first. That would still mean sex-selective abortions, but it might 
at least prevent the sex imbalance from growing.
<br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>A second change would be proper pension arrangements. In Zhejiang, the 
first Chinese province to provide support for the rural elderly, the sex imbalance at 
birth has almost disappeared, according to Xie Zhenming, editor of <I>China Population 
Today</I>. It has gone, too, in cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, where a survey 
recently found that many people said they would prefer a daughter on the grounds that 
daughters were more likely to care for their aged parents than sons. In cities, 
daughters are much less likely to move in with parents-in-law than in the countryside. 
As China grows old and urban, more families may ponder the saying:
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      <font size=2 face='Times New Roman, Times, serif'>
Your son&#146;s your son till he takes a wife; <br>Your daughter&#146;s your daughter, 
the whole of her life.

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src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/freeforall/current/editorial_gifs/null.gif' width=1 
height=7><br>Girls may yet become a better investment than boys.
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         <font size=4 face='Times New Roman, Times, serif'<b>LINKS</b></font>
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         <br><img src=/0KhAc0hZ/editorial/editorial_gifs/null.gif width=1 height=18 
align=borrom border=0>
         <br>
         Some of William Lavely's research is available at the <a target="_new" 
href="http://csde.washington.edu/">
Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology</a>. The <a target="_new" 
href="http://www.cpirc.org.cn/homepage.html">
China Population Information and Research Center</a> has a network of regional offices 
as well as a main site that contains explanations of the Chinese government's policies 
on population and family planning. <a target="_new" 
href="http://www.macroint.com/dhs/">
Demographic and Health Surveys</a>, funded by USAID,  collects and analyses global 
data and statistics on population and health issues. A summary of the 1982 China 
population census is available <a target="_new" 
href="http://testserver.ciesin.org:8801/china/popuhealth/popu/census82.html">
here</a>. 
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