-Caveat Lector-
>From TheNewStatesman (UK)
War turns our colossus to putty
Prime-ministerial dominance and allegations about control-freakery
marked years one and two of this government. Now we are witnessing,
at home and abroad, the severe limitations of prime-ministerial
power. Scotland and Wales look to new rulers, not all of them even
from the mighty Labour Party. In Belgrade, Slobodan Milosevic stands
defiant in spite of the hawkish Tony Blair. Suddenly Blair does not
seem quite the dominant figure he appeared to be only weeks ago.
You would not believe it from some of the reporting and analysis of
recent days but, as far as devolution was concerned, Blair really was
ready to give up some power. The coverage reflects a curious view of
Blair. Much of the time the media portrays him as a far-sighted
colossus who bestrides the political stage. Over devolution, however,
they depict him as a numbskull, the only person in the country
unaware of what happens when power is devolved and elections are held
under a form of proportional representation. Ever since Blair became
leader, when he was unquestionably less enthusiastic about devolution
than John Smith, there has been patronising talk of "unintended
consequences" arising from the Scottish Parliament. Now reports
suggest that the outcome of the elections have left him reeling: the
Downing Street autocrat does not like this messy coalition business
and is rarely off the phone to Donald Dewar.
Yet even my nine-year-old son knew that a coalition was likely in
Scotland (in our sad household, he also thought the single "Sexual
Healing" was entitled "Single Currency", although if you listen to
the over-produced chorus, he has a point). Blair, too, knew that
Labour would not win an overall majority in Scotland: the voting
system made some form of power-sharing almost inevitable.
Blair enjoys symbolic acts of radicalism - but wants to avoid their
practical consequences. Thus, he appointed Frank Field as social
security minister to the sound of trumpets and sacked him when he
dared to come up with proposals that bore some relation to his well-
known views. He told Lord Jenkins to go away and find a new voting
system. When he found one, though, it was kicked into the long grass
and may never be found again.
No doubt Blair would have preferred to commission a review on the
Efficacy of Coalitions in Scotland and Wales, to report back in 2003,
rather than face the real thing.
But the practical consequences of devolution were unavoidable. Blair
will be more relaxed than troubled about this. What is more, I
suspect that his project with the Liberal Democrats in London is far
from dead as a result.
The "project" is spoken of as a fully worked-out scheme, which it is
not. Blair is experimenting as he goes along, leaving all options
open.
Only recently, I suggested that if there were no referendum on
electoral reform in this parliament (and there won't be), a new
voting system would not be in place for the election after next. But
Blair won't want to ditch the Liberal Democrats. At the last
election, Paddy Ashdown's party was part of an unbeatable informal
anti-Tory coalition. The Lib Dems performed well in the local
elections last week, while the Tories made some progress. The
electoral advantages of an informal alliance between the Liberal
Democrats and Labour against a recovering Tory party were reinforced,
rather than undermined.
Scotland and Wales will be test beds. Some of the Labour members of
the Scottish Parliament may not be enthusiastic representatives of
the new Labour model army, and the Welsh Labour group may still be
reeling from centralised interference - but what did anyone expect?
When power devolves, tensions arise.
The row over tuition fees is an early example. If Scotland does not
have tuition fees, so be it. Even in poor old centralised England,
there is considerable variation in council tax levels. This does not
mean everyone rushes off to live in areas where bills are lowest.
English students won't all head up to Scotland, either.
Other such challenging issues will come up. What will happen, for
example, if the Scottish Parliament awards nurses a higher pay rise
than in England and Wales? The answer is that a few English nurses
will move to Scotland, but not many.
You cannot have devolution and expect no divergence in policy - or
else there would be little point in having devolution. As this was
obvious before a single vote was cast last Thursday, I doubt if
ministers in London are too taken aback.
Neither devolution, nor the election results last week, challenge the
Blair aura of invincibility. It is the war in the Balkans, infinitely
less predictable, that threatens to do that.
In his recent Commons statement, Robin Cook condemned critics for
failing to focus on the intentional acts of depravity taking place in
Kosovo, rather than the unintentional ones committed by Nato. But the
air strikes were supposed to prevent the very acts of depravity that
Cook is now highlighting to justify the war. Michael Howard quite
rightly reminded MPs that the original war aim was to avoid a
humanitarian catastrophe in Kosovo. Instead, the catastrophe has
become the reason for intensifying the war.
The government is improvising unconvincingly over the Balkans, while
MPs (and not only Tory ones) are raising more questions about how the
war can be won and what would constitute a victory. The answers
remain far from clear.
Blair will have given some thought to the rather obvious consequences
of devolution. He has known for years that he would be giving some
power away. Did he appreciate that he never had the power in the
first place to win a war convincingly in the Balkans?
A<>E<>R
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