-Caveat Lector- Spy Threat to U.S. May Be Marginal By JOHN DIAMOND .c The Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) -- Lost amid the alarm over the alleged Chinese theft of U.S. nuclear secrets is a conclusion being articulated by arms control advocates, intelligence officials and even some Republicans: The threat to the United States may be marginal at worst. China has yet to field a weapon a decade after it purportedly stole design information from U.S. nuclear weapons labs, they say. Some of the information Beijing's spies allegedly collected is now declassified. And in the strange world of nuclear strategy, a somewhat improved Chinese nuclear arsenal may actually add to superpower stability, these critics argue, by reducing the chances that anyone would be tempted to launch a preemptive first strike on China's arsenal. These cautionary voices have been drowned out amid the uproar on Capitol Hill over a special report by a House select committee on Chinese espionage that studied China's efforts to improve its nuclear warheads and the missiles that deliver them. Also lost is the fact that Tuesday's report is filled with conditional phrases: the People's Republic of China ``could'' or ``may'' take detrimental actions ``if the PRC decides to develop'' weapons it currently does not possess. ``The depiction of China as an impending nuclear nemesis just does not accord with the facts,'' said Robert Norris, a nuclear weapons expert with the Natural Resources Defense Council, an arms control and environmental organization. Much of the report hinges on a prediction that China will soon test and field improved weapons based in part on secrets allegedly stolen from U.S. nuclear weapons labs. For example, China is developing a mobile DF-31 missile that the report says could be tested later this year and fielded in 2002. ``It's a 15-year-old weapons system already. It's never been tested,'' said Norris. ``It may be tested this year. I think five years ago I said the same thing.'' Rep. Christopher Cox, R-Calif., who chaired the House committee that wrote the report, said nothing was blown out of proportion. ``We did not engage in opinion. We reported only facts, and that is why we could agree with one another,'' Cox said. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who served two Republican presidents, cautioned Wednesday against overreacting to the espionage in a way that so demonizes China that it hurts U.S. relations. He told senators that even with stolen U.S. nuclear secrets, it would take China 15 years to develop the capacity to manufacture weapons. ``I am worried about the deterioration in our relations with China,'' Kissinger told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Some Democrats have noted that the report's predictions were written in a ``worst-case fashion,'' but both Republicans and Democrats alike were anxious to position themselves as concerned and responsive to the perceived threat. One fact not in dispute is that the U.S. arsenal is vastly superior to Beijing's. China has 20 single-warhead ICBMs capable of reaching North America. The United States has about 6,000 nuclear warheads that could reach China. To field improved nuclear weapons with any confidence, China would have to conduct several explosive tests per weapon, said Daryl Kimble of the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers. But China has signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, a pact about to be considered for ratification by the National Peoples Assembly. The treaty bans all nuclear testing, including underground. DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://home.ease.lsoft.com/archives/CTRL.html http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
