________________________________________ Need to Know Something Fast? Try STRATFOR's Find Facts Service Visit http://www.stratfor.com/findfacts/ Or e-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________ Global Intelligence Update Red Alert January 13, 1999 Possible Bin Laden Group Attempts Transit Through Malaysia Summary: * Seven Afghan nationals, reportedly arrested and detained in Malaysia on January 7 as they attempted to board a London-bound flight using forged Italian passports, may have been connected with Saudi terrorist financier Osama Bin Laden. This incident and increasing Bin Laden linked guerrilla activity in the Philippines suggest the potential for terrorist acts following the end of Ramadan on January 19. Analysis: China's Xinhua news agency reported on January 7 that Malaysia immigration authorities had detained seven Afghan nationals at the Bayan Lepas International Airport, when the group attempted to board a Singapore Airlines flight for London. Malaysian authorities stated that the reason behind the arrest was that the Italian passports that the Afghanis were carrying were believed to be forged, obtained most likely through the help of an Italian national who was also arrested. Penang Immigration Director, Md Saad Md Akhir, said that the seven Afghanis had been under investigation since they entered Malaysia on December 7 last year, via the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang, using Afghan passports. They are believed to have acquired forged Italian passports from the Italian national after entering Malaysia, and to have tested them by entering Singapore on December 8 and returning to Malaysia on December 15. This incident may be nothing more than a failed attempt at illegal immigration, but circumstances surrounding the incident suggest it warrants further scrutiny. First, the possibility that these seven men were simply attempting to emigrate is hard to believe. They traveled out of Afghanistan, a country sending very few abroad, on official passports. In Malaysia, rather than simply requesting asylum or traveling elsewhere under their own documents, they somehow tracked down a man who could provide them with forged passports. The criminal effort to mask their identity, combined with their point of departure and target destination, is suspicious in and of itself. The seven may have been on a covert mission for Afghanistan's Taleban regime, but we suspect another sponsor -- Osama Bin Laden. As we have been monitoring in our Asia Intelligence Updates, Saudi terrorist financier Osama Bin Laden, currently based in Afghanistan, evidently maintains contacts and possibly banking operations in Malaysia. Furthermore, he has apparently recently used Malaysia as a transshipment point for arms, money and personnel to the Philippine Muslim extremist groups Abu Sayyaf and the Salafiyah Fighters. It is possible that these Afghan nationals were some of Bin Laden's "Afghan Arabs," traveling under Afghan passports, using Bin Laden's contacts in Malaysia to prepare for a mission in the United Kingdom. The London destination is particularly noteworthy. While London hosts an array of Middle Eastern opposition groups, possible targets for a Taleban-sponsored operation, it has also been Washington's staunchest ally on Mid East policy. This showed itself most clearly in the joint U.S.-UK air strikes against Iraq, Operation Desert Fox. Following the terrorist attacks last year on the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and the retaliatory strikes by the U.S. against targets in Afghanistan and Sudan, security has been bolstered at U.S. and British embassies, amid fears of further attacks by Bin Laden's network. Still, since last August, Bin Laden has not retaliated on a grand scale. However, as we have been observing and reporting, groups backed by Bin Laden have been on the move, and U.S. planners have clearly been bracing for trouble. U.S. embassies around the Persian Gulf went on a heightened state of alert on December 14, with the State Department warning of "the strong possibility" of terrorist attacks on U.S. interests over Christmas or the Moslem fasting month of Ramadan. U.S. citizens in Kuwait, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Yemen were told to be extra vigilant over the next 30 days. The threat increased when, on December 16, the U.S. and British launched strikes on Iraq. On December 25, Bin Laden called on Muslims to avenge the air strikes on Iraq, stating, "it is the duty of Muslims to kill American and British nationals in retaliation for the air strikes against Iraq." While the arrest of these Afghanis in Malaysia may have interrupted a plot to attack U.S. and British interests in London, Bin Laden's group and allies are clearly on the move again, with multiple target options. On January 2, Bin Laden said that attempts by Washington to disrupt his finances, arrest him or execute him have failed even though there have been reports of attempts on his life, that he is broke, and reports leaked by the Pentagon that he may be ill. Evidence suggests he may not be merely talking tough. In late December, a group of 16 tourists, including U.S. and British citizens, was kidnapped as they traveled in convoy through the southern Yemeni southern province of Abyan, by a group calling itself Islamic Jihad. Three Britons and one Australian died during the subsequent gun battle, when the Yemeni army tried to rescue the tourists. The rescuers reportedly fired indiscriminately as the kidnappers, armed with rocket-propelled grenades and automatic weapons and equipped with a laptop computer and satellite telephone, used the hostages as human shields. Official Yemeni reports claim that the kidnappers were part of a group calling itself Islamic Jihad and were already shooting hostages when the order was given to start the rescue. The report also stated that the group has links to other extremist groups outside Yemen, though they did not specify what groups. An FBI report filed on January 2 stated that the FBI had substantial evidence linking this group to Bin Laden and that they were, in fact, trained at camps run by Bin Laden. "He has been deeply involved in the funding and training of Islamic extremists in the Yemen for several years," a U.S. intelligence officer was quoted as telling the British newspaper The Sunday Telegraph. "Despite being a Saudi, he is one of the most powerful men in the Yemen. We are convinced these men were trained by him." Ten U.S. intelligence officers who accompanied the FBI agents believe that the tourists were, indeed, kidnapped as "direct retribution" for last month's U.S. and British air attacks on Iraq, according to The Sunday Telegraph. They also were quoted as stating that they suspect that the tourists may have been kidnapped to "shield" Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein from further bombing raids, with the threat that they would die if Iraq was attacked again. Deutsche Presse Agentur (DPA) reported on January 12 that the Philippine Moslem rebel groups, Abu Sayyaf and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), are expecting a multi-million dollar shipment of arms and ammunition from Middle Eastern Islamic fundamentalist groups. The German news agency cited an anonymous rebel source as claiming that most of the funding for the arms comes from Afghanistan, where Saudi terrorist financier Osama Bin Laden is currently based. On January 10, MILF Vice Chairman for Military Affairs, Al Haj Murad, reportedly told Businessworld Philippines that MILF was receiving help from "civic organizations" in Moslem countries. On January 8, DPA cited MILF Chairman for Western Mindanao, Ustadz Shariff Julabbi, as acknowledging that the MILF receives funding from sympathizers in Australia, Germany, and unnamed Arab countries. "They are extending support because they know the cause of our struggle," said Julabbi, adding that, "A revolutionary group like ours needs help from foreigners." That help comes not only in arms but in expertise as well. DPA cited MILF sources as claiming that at least 300 Indonesians and 70 Pakistanis were training guerrillas at camps in Mindanao. The Philippine government has long alleged Middle Eastern connections to the southern Philippine rebels, and January 12, confirmed the essence of DPA's reports. The Manila Bulletin cited Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and Philippine National Police (PNP) intelligence sources as detailing how security forces had foiled an attempt to smuggle a large shipment of arms and ammunition into Mindanao last December 25. The weapons were reportedly provided by a "foreign country sympathetic to Filipino Muslims seeking an independent Islamic state in Southern Philippines." The unnamed sources claimed that AFP and PNP intelligence services had uncovered the planned landing, and AFP Southern Command had deployed additional ground troops along the coast. In addition, Philippine Navy patrols were increased and the Philippine Air Force carried out aerial reconnaissance. The Manila Bulletin report did not say the weapons were captured or destroyed, merely that the delivery attempt was thwarted. On January 11, the Philippine military was placed on red alert, following reports that Abu Sayyaf and the MILF would launch major coordinated attacks after Ramadan, which ends January 19. Philippine military intelligence announced that it had uncovered a terrorist plot by Abu Sayyaf to attack urban areas, in a new phase of a campaign begun last year with a series of attacks on buses in Mindanao. Military patrols, already stepped up following a recent series of grenade attacks attributed to Abu Sayyaf, have been further increased, not only in the predominantly Moslem southern Philippines, but also in Moslem enclaves in and around Manila. Rebels have reportedly been spotted in the Islamic Center in Quiapo. A fight is clearly brewing in the southern Philippines, and both sides appear more prepared to wage it than to prevent it. As that fight is apparently fueled by a new influx of aid from abroad, particularly from Osama Bin Laden, Philippine military and government installations are not the only facilities that should be on high alert. Bin Laden has called for retaliatory strikes against U.S. and British interests for last month's air strikes against Iraq, and we deem it highly likely that this buildup in the Philippines may be directed in part at settling that score. In Yemen, the Philippines, and now possibly Malaysia, Bin Laden is becoming increasingly active once again. That he may have been targeting London suggests that he is preparing for another high- profile operation. If, after further investigation, the Afghanis detained in Malaysia prove to be members of Bin Laden's organization, businesses operating in Malaysia and other localities known to be within Bin Laden's network should increase their security measures. U.S. and UK citizens and businesses in particular should take precautions throughout Southeast Asia and the Middle East. ___________________________________________________ To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates, sign up on the web at http://www.stratfor.com/mail/, or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
