-Caveat Lector- U.S. Wonders What China Will Do WASHINGTON (AP) - Chinese officials have been sounding out U.S.-China specialists for their opinion on possible Chinese military action against Taiwan following Taiwanese assertions that Beijing and Taipei should be treated as equals. Douglas Paal, president of the Washington-based Asia Pacific Policy Center, said he had been visited separately by Chinese military, government and academic representatives. He described the meetings as ``much more intense'' than interviews that he regularly has with them. He said China regards the current difficulties with Taiwan as being much more serious than the situation in 1996 when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui engaged in a campaign to gain greater international recognition for Taiwan. Paal said the Chinese asked how the administration might respond to various possible situations but avoided describing specific scenarios that might suggest what they were considering. He said they talked about the possibility of capturing small, outlying Taiwanese islands, then appeared to back away from that option as too ambitious. They also raised the possibility of attacking ships. Paal added that the Chinese seemed to be carrying out a cost-benefit analysis. ``They're in the process of trying to make a decision, and they want to know what the outcome would be,'' he said. At another point, Paal said the Chinese approaches to U.S. experts ``may part of psychological warfare or just saber rattling, or an attempt to keep us busy while they attack Taiwan.'' James Mulvenon, a Chinese army expert at the Rand research organization, said he also was approached by Chinese emissaries. ``They walk in with the same message,'' Mulvenon told the Washington Post. ``We're going to do something. We can't tell you what, but we're going to do something. ``The goal for China would be to cause maximum impact in Taiwan without bringing in the United States,'' he said. William Triplett, a China expert and former chief Republican counsel on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said China has been dropping hints in Far East newspapers for the past month that some form of military action against Taiwan may occur. Such articles have been seen in Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong, Triplett said. He said any military action against Taiwan would have a ruinous impact on China's efforts to build relations with the outside world, including the United States and European countries. ``It would all go down the tubes,'' Triplett said. Meanwhile, an administration spokesman denied news accounts that China warned the Clinton administration about possible military action against Taiwan. ``We have not received any threats or ultimatums from the Chinese,'' National Security Council spokesman David Leavy said at the White House. Unidentified administration officials told the New York Times that Washington has warned Beijing that any military action would force the United States to retaliate. Leavy declined to speculate on what he called a ``hypothetical military operation.'' Chinese Embassy spokesman Yu Shuning said he was unaware of any contacts by embassy officials with China experts on the Taiwan issue. He repeated China's long-standing policy that it seeks peaceful reunification with Taiwan but does not rule out the use of force. To do so, he said, would make peaceful reunification impossible. The Post said the White House believes it's unlikely that Beijing would launch any military action before October to avoid spoiling a meeting next month between Clinton and Chinese President Jiang Zemin in New Zealand. ``I don't think they'll do it soon, but I can't say they won't do it at all,'' a senior administration said. White House officials said military action could range from striking Taiwan to seizing an unpopulated island belonging to Taiwan. The newspapers said the warnings have come from lower-ranking Chinese officials and not from China's top leaders. The lower-level officials may have been gauging how the United States might respond, or may have hoped the Clinton administration would urge Taiwan to back down, the reports said. ``Obviously we're watching the situation closely, and we have been in touch with both sides on a number of occasions over the last several weeks,'' Leavy said. ``Both sides recognize the danger in the situation. Our policy is the same - it's one China.'' For more than a week, military aircraft from China and Taiwan have been flying over the 100-mile-wide straits separating Taiwan and the mainland. The opposing planes have not tangled, but Leavy said the United States is urging both sides to back off. ``These are how accidents happen, and we've made that clear,'' Leavy said. China has considered Taiwan a rogue province for 50 years, since Nationalist forces retreated to the island in defeat after battling Communist forces on the mainland. China has refused to renounce violence to force Taiwan back under full mainland control. The situation has grown more tense since Taiwan's recent assertions that it should be treated as China's equal. The United States favors eventual reunification so long as it is carried out by peaceful means. DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! 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