-Caveat Lector- North Korean missile tests strain relations in Asia Copyright © 1999 Nando Media Copyright © 1999 Associated Press By THOMAS WAGNER TOKYO (July 11, 1999 1:22 p.m. EDT http://www.nandotimes.com) - Given North Korea's history of isolation and secrecy, it's never really possible to know what motivates its communist government, especially when it plays brinkmanship. But whatever North Korea hoped to achieve by stepping up its missile program, it has put China, its main ally, in a difficult diplomatic position and motivated East Asia and the United States to step up their military readiness. It all began last August, when North Korea surprised everyone by suddenly test-firing a new class of ballistic missile that flew across Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean. The Taepodong-1 missile is believed to be fairly inaccurate, and therefore not all that effective militarily. But the possibility of one hitting a city in Japan sent shockwaves through the country. The test also helped Japanese legislators adopt new defense guidelines to strengthen Tokyo's military alliance with the United States by expanding the role that Japanese forces are allowed to play while assisting U.S. forces in Asia. It was the first time the guidelines had been updated since 1978, something never easy to do in Japan, where military issues have been extremely sensitive since World War II. Besides the 50,000 U.S. forces based in Japan, the United States also guards the region with 36,000 in South Korea. In Washington, U.S. legislators quickly began using charts showing that Alaska and Hawaii could fall within range of North Korea's Taepodong-1 missile. And that information helped them build the support they needed to pass legislation approving the development of a new American missile defense system. Japan and the United States also agreed to fund a joint research project on a proposed Theater Missile Defense system in the Pacific. Taiwan said it would be interested in either buying or getting protection from such a missile defense shield. The whole plan has drawn bitter criticism from China. If North Korea had then redirected the world's attention away from its fledgling missile program and back toward its battered economy and famine, it probably could have quickly reduced tensions in the region. Pyongyang may even have persuaded Japan to resume food aid that it suspended after the first missile test. But since then, North Korea has indicated that it may be about to test-fire a more advanced Taepodong-2 missile, which might be able to reach as far as the west coast of the United States. U.S. and Japanese officials have said their forces have detected signs North Korea is preparing for such a launch. On July 2, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung visited Washington to meet with President Clinton to discuss this and other issues. The two warned North Korea that any further missile tests on its part would pose "a serious obstacle to peace." In late June, the Group of Eight issued a similar statement during its summit meeting in Germany, expressing deep concern about North Korea's missile proliferation. The G-8 leaders did so at the request of Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, the only Asian country that belongs to the group of industrial powers. North Korea replied by saying once again that testing ballistic missiles is its "sovereign right" and criticized the United States for suggesting that another launch would threaten its bilateral agreements with Pyongyang. Worse still, President Kim's spokesman said Wednesday that North Korea is building what appears to be a missile-launching base in the mountainous area of Yongjudon near the Chinese border. A South Korean newspaper said the site would be difficult for U.S. forces to attack because it's so close to Chinese territory. In addition to prompting countries such as South Korea and Taiwan to call for improvements in their own militaries - such as longer-range missiles and better missile defense systems - North Korea's behavior also has put China in a difficult position. China is North Korea's only remaining ally in Asia, even though Beijing long ago dropped many of the closed-market, hardline communist policies that Pyongyang still clings to. Since President Kim was elected 17 months ago, Beijing has publicly supported U.S. and South Korean efforts to expand peaceful contacts with North Korea. China has backed Kim's "sunshine policy" of social and economic engagement with North Korea and allowed peace talks between North and South Korea to be held in Beijing. But that was before NATO jets mistakenly bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the fighting in Yugoslavia. That, and the Chinese spy scandal in the United States, have strained relations between the sole superpower and the rising power, and reduced Beijing's cooperation with the United States. State media have called the NATO attack, and the U.S.-Japan alliance, part of a Washington plot to contain China. Beijing has asked for reassurance that the new Japan-U.S. military guidelines are not aimed at China or at thwarting its ambitions to reunite with Taiwan. China regards Taiwan as a renegade province, but the United States considers it an ally. China opposes the sale of any military equipment to protect Taiwan, but Taipei often tries to buy it to protect itself from China, especially from its growing number of ballistic missiles deployed on the Chinese coast across the straits from Taiwan. During his state visit to China last week, Obuchi, Japan's prime minister, asked Beijing to try to persuade North Korea to avoid another test-firing of a Taepodong missiles. Legislative Chairman Li Peng, who is expected to travel to North Korea later this year, promised Obuchi he would convey Japanese concerns to the North Koreans if he has the opportunity. For some analysts, tensions between China and other countries is a bigger concern than North Korea's military. "North Korea is so isolated that it may once again be trying to show that it is walking tall in the world," said William Hopkinson, the head of the international security program at the Royal Institute for International Affairs in London. "But the thing to remember is that a handful of not very accurate missiles doesn't change the military balance overnight. The influence is far more political than military." ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Steve Wingate California Director SKYWATCH INTERNATIONAL Anomalous Images and UFO Files http://www.anomalous-images.com DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. 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