-Caveat Lector-
"US officials have detected signs that North Korea is preparing to
test-fire a missile, which may be able to reach as far as the west coast of
the United States ...".
Nostradamus: "Seventh month, 1999,
From the skies comes a great king of terror."
Missiles in N.Korea Make Asia Tense
By THOMAS WAGNER
.c The Associated Press
TOKYO (AP) - Given how isolated and secretive North Korea is, it's never
really possible to know what motivates its communist government, especially
when it plays brinkmanship.
But whatever North Korea hoped to achieve by stepping up its missile program,
it has put China, its main ally, in a difficult diplomatic position and
motivated East Asia and the United States to step up their military
readiness.
It all began last August, when North Korea surprised everyone by suddenly
test-firing a new class of ballistic missile that flew across Japan and
landed in the Pacific Ocean.
The Taepodong-1 missile is believed to be fairly inaccurate, and therefore
not all that effective militarily. But the possibility of one hitting a city
in Japan sent shockwaves through the country.
The test also helped Japanese legislators adopt new defense guidelines to
strengthen Tokyo's military alliance with the United States by expanding the
role that Japanese forces are allowed to play while assisting U.S. forces in
Asia.
It was the first time the guidelines had been updated since 1978, something
that is never easy to do in Japan, where military issues have been extremely
sensitive since World War II.
Besides the 50,000 U.S. forces based in Japan, the United States also guards
the region with 36,000 in South Korea.
In Washington, U.S. legislators quickly began using charts showing that
Alaska and Hawaii could fall within range of North Korea's Taepodong-1
missile. And that information helped them build the support they needed to
pass legislation approving the development of a new American missile defense
system.
Japan and the United States also agreed to fund a joint research project on a
proposed Theater Missile Defense system in the Pacific. Taiwan said it would
be interested in either buying or getting protection from such a missile
defense shield. The whole plan has drawn bitter criticism from China.
If North Korea had then redirected the world's attention away from its
fledgling missile program and back toward its battered economy and famine, it
probably could have quickly reduced tensions in the region. Pyongyang may
even have persuaded Japan to resume food aid that it suspended after the
first missile test.
But since then, North Korea has indicated that it may be about to test-fire a
more advanced Taepodong-2 missile, which might be able to reach as far as the
west coast of the United States.
U.S. and Japanese officials have said their forces have detected signs that
North Korea is preparing for such a launch.
On July 2, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung visited Washington to meet
with President Clinton to discuss this and other issues. The two warned North
Korea that any further missile tests on its part would pose ``a serious
obstacle to peace.''
In late June, the Group of Eight issued a similar statement during its summit
meeting in Germany, expressing deep concern about North Korea's missile
proliferation. The G-8 leaders did so at the request of Japanese Prime
Minister Keizo Obuchi, the only Asian country that belongs to the group of
industrial powers.
North Korea replied by saying once again that testing ballistic missiles is
its ``sovereign right'' and criticized the United States for suggesting that
another launch would threaten its bilateral agreements with Pyongyang.
Worse still, President Kim's spokesman said on Wednesday that North Korea is
building what appears to be a missile-launching base in the mountainous area
of Yongjudon near the Chinese border. A South Korean newspaper said the site
would be difficult for U.S. forces to attack because it's so close to Chinese
territory.
In addition to prompting countries such as South Korea and Taiwan to call for
improvements in their own militaries - such as longer-range missiles and
better missile defense systems - North Korea's behavior also has put China in
a difficult position.
China is North Korea's only remaining ally in Asia, even though Beijing long
ago dropped many of the closed-market, hard-line communist policies that
Pyongyang still clings to.
Since President Kim was elected 17 months ago, Beijing has publicly supported
U.S. and South Korean efforts to expand peaceful contacts with North Korea.
China has backed Kim's ``sunshine policy'' of social and economic engagement
with North Korea and allowed peace talks between North and South Korea to be
held in Beijing.
But that was before NATO jets mistakenly bombed the Chinese Embassy in
Belgrade during the fighting in Yugoslavia.
That, and the Chinese spy scandal in the United States, have strained
relations between the sole superpower and the rising power, and reduced
Beijing's cooperation with the United States.
State media have called the NATO attack, and the U.S.-Japan alliance, part of
a Washington plot to contain China.
Beijing has asked for reassurance that the new Japan-U.S. military guidelines
are not aimed at China or at thwarting its ambitions to reunite with Taiwan.
China regards Taiwan as a renegade province, but the United States considers
it an ally.
China opposes the sale of any military equipment to protect Taiwan, but
Taipei often tries to buy it to protect itself from China, especially from
its growing number of ballistic missiles deployed on the Chinese coast across
the straits from Taiwan.
During his state visit to China last week, Obuchi, Japan's prime minister,
asked Beijing to try to persuade North Korea to avoid another test-firing of
a Taepodong missiles.
Legislative Chairman Li Peng, who is expected to travel to North Korea later
this year, promised Obuchi he would convey Japanese concerns to the North
Koreans if he has the opportunity.
For some analysts, tensions between China and other countries is a bigger
concern than North Korea's military.
``North Korea is so isolated that it may once again be trying to show that it
is walking tall in the world,'' said William Hopkinson, the head of the
international security program at the Royal Institute for International
Affairs in London.
``But the thing to remember is that a handful of not very accurate missiles
doesn't change the military balance overnight. The influence is far more
political than military.''
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